2007 Predictions - Looking Back, Part I

Let's take a look back at some of our preseason predictions - I'll start with the random questions I threw out there...

Will Barry Bonds break Hank Aaron's record this season?
Warren: Yes
Sully: Yes
Ross: Yes
Answer: Yes

The NL's winning percentage in interleague play will be:
Warren: .480
Sully: .476
Ross: .440
Answer: .456

How many of the Chris Youngs will have disappointing seasons?
Warren: 0
Sully: 0
Ross: 1
Answer: This is a judgment call, of course, but I'd say 0. Chris Young (ARI) only hit .237 (with an OBP of .295), but he did 32 homers. The tall Chris Young had a fantastic season.

Ken Griffey, Jr. will play in how many games?
Warren: 98
Sully: 87
Ross: 101
Answer: 144

Will a star player get caught using PEDs this season?
Warren: No
Sully: (Caught meaning fail an MLB drug test? In that case, no. But more big names will come out)
Ross: only minor players
Answer: No

Baseball America's 2008 top prospect will be:
Warren: Evan Longoria
Sully: No freaking idea
Ross: Cameron Maybin
Answer: Too early to say for sure. My guess is that it will be Jay Bruce.

The first manager to be fired will be:
Warren: John Gibbons
Sully: Mike Hargrove
Ross: Mike Hargrove
Answer: Sam Perlozzo. Hargrove resigned only a couple of weeks after that, though.

The Mets player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Lastings Milledge
Sully: Mike Pelfrey
Ross: Shawn Green (It's my Jew vote. I wonder if he's going to a passover seder tonight)
Answer: Probably one of John Maine, Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernandez - all ended up with ERAs under 4. Personally, I was most surprised by El Duque. Green did exceed my expectations, though.

The Mets player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Jose Reyes
Sully: Moises Alou
Ross: Mike Pelfrey
Answer: I'll go with Carlos Delgado. Reyes was disappointing in that he had a huge April, but was good-not-great the rest of the way. Pelfrey was a bit of a disappointment as well.

The Yankees player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Alex Rodriguez
Sully: Alex Rodriguez
Ross: Alex Rodriguez, Carl Pavano (all Pavano has to do to exceed expectations is to stay healthy trough April)
Answer: Honestly, it's probably Posada or Joba, but A-Rod's not a bad answer. I don't think he exceeded our expectations by a huge amount.

The Yankees player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Chien-Ming Wang
Sully: Robinson Cano
Ross: Kei Igawa
Answer: Igawa was certainly terrible, but a lot of people did suspect he wouldn't be any good. Damon and Mussina were both pretty disappointing.

The Red Sox player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Wily Mo Pena
Sully: Josh Beckett
Ross: Jon Lester
Answer: Either Beckett or Pedroia, in my opinion.

The Red Sox player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Jon Papelbon
Sully: Coco Crisp
Ross: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Answer: Well, both of you guys had good picks...but there are many to choose from. Drew and Lugo would probably be considered bigger disappointments than Dice-K, though.

Will be knocked down a peg:
Warren: Ryan Howard
Sully: Justin Verlander
Ross: Delmon Young
Answer: Young was the best guess of these three by far.

2006 playoff team least likely to make the playoffs in 2007:
Warren: Dodgers
Sully: Dodgers
Ross: Cardinals
Answer: 3 for 3.

Will Joel Zumaya permanently take over as Tigers closer in 2007?
Warren: Yes
Sully: No
Ross: Yes
Answer: He got injured, but probably wouldn't have taken over even if healthy. And now he got hurt again.

The biggest midseason trade acquisition will be:
Warren: Andruw Jones, by the Red Sox (for Jacoby Ellsbury* and Wily Mo Pena)
Sully: Ichiro Suzuki, by the Dodgers (for Chad Billingsley and Andre Ethier)
Ross: Jeff Kent to the Red Sox (for Dustin Pedroia and Daniel Bard**)
Answer: Mark Teixiera by the Braves. None of these players went anywhere.

First announced rotation member to lose their spot due to ineffectiveness:
Warren: Sidney Ponson (to Matt Garza)
Sully: Sidney Ponson (to anyone)
Ross: Josh Towers
Answer: Towers lost his starting job after only 4 starts, although he got his job back and eventually made another 11 starts. Ponson lasted 7 starts for some reason.

The pitcher with the highest ERA in at least 100 IP will be:
Warren: Brandon Duckworth
Sully: Horacio Ramirez
Ross: Odalis Perez
Answer: Sully was so close - Ramirez had an ERA of 7.16 in 98 innings. The real answer was Adam Eaton - 6.29 in 161.2 innings. (Nice use of eight million bucks.) Duckworth only made 3 starts and was decent out of the bullpen (4.53 ERA in 45.2 innings). Perez was bad (5.57 ERA in 137.1 innings).

The pitcher with the lowest ERA in at least 40 IP will be:
Warren: Mike Gonzalez
Sully: Jonathan Broxton
Ross: Mariano Rivera
Warren: J.J. Putz (1.39). Gonzalez had a 1.59 ERA in 17 innings before having Tommy John surgery, Broxton had a 2.85 ERA in 82 innings, and Rivera ran out of time to get his ERA back under 3, ending up with a 3.15 ERA in 71.1 innings.

The number of days we'll go without hearing from Ross after the Yankees are eliminated from the playoffs:
Warren: 24
Sully: 16
Ross: Not Applicable as they will win the World Series
Answer: 23. Welcome back, Ross.

1-for-1

Diamondbacks win, and my record for playoff predictions this year is already better than last year. Woo hoo! The way it stands right now, I'll likely go 2-for-4 in the first round, and I'm fine with that. Baby steps.

By the way, I was at Fenway last night to see my fourth playoff walk-off. Here's how I rank them:

A distant # 4: Aaron Boone vs. Red Sox. On the one hand, this one still hurts. On the other hand, it made 2004 so much sweeter. Being there in person for this is the very definition of bittersweet. Forget about the fact that I'm a Red Sox fan... if I were even a neutral observer, this would rank as the best game I've ever seen. But I wasn't.

#3: Manny Ramirez vs. Angels. It was a tense game, but it wasn't a series clincher, an elimination game (for the home team), or even extra innings, so that costs it a little bit. However, that one swing by Manny gave me a much-needed reminder that he is still a force to be reckoned with. I'm roughly 15% more confident in the Red Sox' abilities to make a run now after last night's ninth inning.

#2: David Ortiz vs. Angels. A series-ending walk-off, after the Red Sox had already blown a 4-run lead on an opposite field Vlad Guerrero grand slam. The fact that the Sox were already up 2-0 in the series when it happened hurts it, but the fact that it clinched the series, and that the Sox were still chasing their elusive holy grail at the time, are huge... almost huge enough to finish it ahead of:

#1: David Ortiz vs. Yankees. This was the Game Five single in the 14th inning, not the Game Four home run in the 12th - the fact that I need to differentiate that still amazes me to this day. Here's what I remember vividly from this game: Ortiz cut a 4-2 deficit in half with a solo homer in the 8th inning, the Sox tied it up off of Rivera for the second time in 19 hours later that inning, my tickets were originally for Game Three, but a rainout postponed it, and the Astros-Cardinals game that night started three hours later than this game did... and it finished before this game. That was a crazy night.

As if I needed to make this clear, I am exceedingly lucky to have seen all of these games in a four year-span. In this century, the Red Sox have been involved in seven walk-off playoff games (one of them in Oakland), and I've been to four of them. This is a great time to live a mile away from Fenway Park.

Quick Predictions

Since I had 5 of the 8 playoff teams correct in my preseason predictions, I'll just stick with those as much as I can.

Yankees over Indians in 5
Red Sox over Angels in 3
Diamondbacks over Cubs in 5
Phillies over Rockies in 5

Yankees over Red Sox in 7
Diamondbacks over Phillies in 6

Diamondbacks over Yankees in 7

Predictions

ALDS 1: Red Sox vs. Angels
This is a really hard one to pick. I don't trust the Red Sox starters. I think a lot of this series is going to come down to Jason Varitek, both offensively and defensively. The Angels will scrap and it will be up to Varitek to keep them in check. The other big factor of course is Manny Ramirez. I never bet against Manny hitting though, and I think Varitek will come through. In the end, I think the reason I don't trust the Red Sox starters is because of what I have seen of them. However, what I have seen of them is against a much better offense than the Angels, and an offense that has seen those starters a lot more than the Angels' offense has seen them.

Red Sox in 4

ALDS 2: Yankees vs. Indians
Obviously this is the matchup the Yankees wanted for the ALDS. Sabathia-Wang is a great Game 1 matchup. The Yankees have historically crushed Sabathia, but historically is an important word as they haven't faced him for 3 years. Sabathia is going to have to keep his cool and his pitch count down. He had only 37 walks this season, but if the playoffs get to him even a bit, the Yankees are going to force him into the strike zone. Wang doesn't need to outpitch Sabathia, just pitch with him. I'm confident with the Yankees going up against Carmona. Carmona has big splits as he's much better against righties than lefties. He will probably only get to face two righties in the Yankee lineup, and those guys are Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. The Yankees pound Joe Borowski. Every Yankee that is. So far this season the Yankees have had 2 three-game sweeps against the Indians, make it three.

Yankees in 3

NLDS 1: Rockies vs. Phillies
A great matchup in that both of these teams had to go on amazing runs to make the playoffs. One of them can't get past the first round. I just don't think I can ever trust Rockie pitching or the Rockies away from Coors Field.

Phillies in 5

NLDS 2: Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
I honestly don't know these teams that well, and don't feel like doing much research right now. I do know that the Cubs are the only NL team that I picked to make the playoffs in the NL that actually did.

Cubs in 5


ALCS: Yankees vs. Red Sox
The fact is, there are going to be runs scored in this series. The more hitters and pitchers face each other, the more the advantage goes to the hitters. It's why if Wang isn't on his game, he'll get hit, where other teams still might not get him. It's why the Red Sox are usually the ones who get to Rivera. It's why 2 of Jonathan Papelbon's 3 losses are to the Yankees. Both teams take tons of pitches, which means the starters are not getting the ball to the closers. In the end, the fact that the Yankees have a better offense, and Joba Chamberlain, I think is what will put them over the top against the Red Sox.

Yankees in 6


NLCS: Cubs vs. Phillies
Okay, we have two of the original NL teams. In 257 seasons, they've combined to win 3 championships, and only 1 in the last 99 years. Is it possible that two years in a row, a pathetic NL Central team wins the pennant. Why not? It will really come down to if Carlos Zambrano's arm falls off or not. We know Piniella will keep going to it. So far it hasn't.

Cubs in 7

World Series: Yankees vs. Cubs
This is not an even matchup. I think that's enough of a reason. I'll give Lou Piniella the benefit of the doubt, he can steal one game.

Yankees in 5

Playoff Predictions

I've been dreading this. I've been thinking about making my predictions again, terrified of pulling off the impossible 0-for-7 two years in a row. It might be time to channel my inner Costanza and just do the opposite of my instincts, but that would probably make me the only person in the world to pick a Diamondbacks-Angels World Series, and I think I've gone out on enough limbs with 2007 predictions (see: 2007 Texas Rangers). So screw it, I'm going with my first instinct. But if I go 0-for-4 in the DS, then it's Costanza time.

One final thought before I get going - I think it's awesome that out of the eight playoff teams from last year, only one of them made it back this year. I think it's less awesome that the one repeat team is the Yankees, but that's beside the point. In two years, exactly half of the teams in MLB, and, in fact, half in each league, have made the playoffs. That's the wild card era in a nutshell, and I don't want to hear any more whining from Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and the rest of the perennial doormats. It can be done.

ALDS:
The Red Sox have destroyed Lackey and Weaver this year; they haven't faced Escobar, but they killed him last year and beat him in the clinching third game in 2004. I like the Angels' pitching, but the Red Sox seem to have their number. Having Manny back in the lineup is huge, and if he and Youkilis can stay healthy, the offense will be much stronger than when it sputtered in September. I'm obviously worried about Drew and Lugo, but I think Ortiz, Manny, and Lowell can carry enough of the load on offense.

The pitching is another story, and of course I'm a little bit concerned about Matsuzaka (he should be pitching Game Three - he's much better on the road), but like I said, the Angels staff has its warts, too. The bullpens are similar: shut-down closers, set-up guys who were brutal down the stretch (Gagne's and Okajima's struggles have been well-documented, but here's Scot Shields since the all-star break: 7.36 ERA, 1.81 WHIP), and seventh inning guys who are lurking as stronger eighth inning options (Manny Delcarmen and Justin Speier).

I'd say Boston has a slight edge in the rotation, and the bullpen is a push. The Red Sox offense puts them over the top. The Pick: Red Sox in 4.

Everyone knows that the Yankees are the hottest team in the AL (I'd love to see them play a three-game series against Colorado or Philly right now), but something worries me about this Cleveland match-up. Last year, going into the playoffs, everyone and their grandmother was picking the Yankees to stomp on Detroit and go all the way, conveniently overlooking the fact that their pitching stunk. Well, what's changed? The Yankees have a high-powered offense that goes into the playoffs with a few guys banged up, and their opponent has a strong rotation, good middle relievers, and a closer who's a closer in name only. With home field and three potential starts from Sabathia and Carmona, why can't the Indians take this team down?

The answer? A-Rod. Maybe. If he has a big series, there's no way the Yankees can lose, unless the rest of the lineup goes 7-for-100, or something. But what if Sabathia and Carmona can shut him down, and he comes back to the Bronx 1-for-9 with no RsBI? Do the fans get on him if he pops up in his first at-bat against Jake Westbrook? If he hits into a double play off of Paul Byrd? Can he keep it together?

Personally, I don't know what to think. I've mocked the man enough that even after he came through in some huge spots against the Sox this year, I still expect him to fail with the game on the line and the leaves changing colors. Do I believe that he's un-clutch and a stat-padder and not a True YankeeTM? I don't think so. At least, I like to think I'm smart enough not to, but as a fan of the opposition, I just can't shake the feeling that he won't come through when it really matters, and that the negative karma from the New York fans and press could eat him up. Of course, this is the situation that I'm praying for, so that he opts out and leverages a gigantic offer from the Yankees into a bigger offer from the Cubs or Dodgers or Giants, but I think this year, finally, I'm not expecting it.

I really don't know what to make of this series, though. If the Yankees can steal one in Cleveland (which I think they can... probably Game Two), then I think the Indians are done. Westbrook and Byrd aren't holding down that offense in Yankee Stadium. The Pick: Yankees in 4.

I have to zip through the NL, because I should be studying for my accounting test...

NLDS:
Everyone's on the Cubs bandwagon, pretty much because they have a celebrity manager, play in a big market, and are playing against a team that was outscored by 20 runs this year. Well, for those people I offer two strong words: Ryan Dempster. The Pick: Diamondbacks in 5.

I'm trying to figure out whose rotation is worse in the Philly-Colorado series, and I just can't. They're both awful. Philly has a better ace and a better closer, in my opinion, so I probably give them the edge, and in a game five after what will likely be a series full of Broncos vs. Eagles scores, I think that's enough. The Pick: Phillies in 5.

ALCS: I hate making this pick. I don't want to jinx it, but I don't want to come off as a homer, either (Ross doesn't have this problem, by the way). I guess I should just look at the results in August/September. Bah. The Pick: Yankees in 6.

NLCS: The Phillies may be able to slug their way through Colorado, but in a seven-game series against a team with a better ace and a better bullpen, I think they'll need some help from the pitching, and I don't see it. Plus, Charlie Manuel is involved. The Pick: Diamondbacks in 6.

World Series: First of all, if this is really the World Series, I'm going to throw up. Second of all... actually, that's all I've got. The Pick: Yankees in 5.

Wait a second... did I just predict that Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi, Kyle Farnsworth, Alex Rodriguez, et al would win the World Series? That can't happen, can it? There's no chance, right? But who can beat them? The Red Sox and Indians could, I guess, but... damn it. I don't think rationally when the Red Sox are involved. I'm just going to leave it as is and hope that I go 1-for-7 this year. Hey, it would be an improvement...

Our Combined Predictions

I decided to look back at our TripleSteal combined predictions, and it turns out that the sum of our brains is better than the individual parts.

If the playoffs were to start today, we'd have 6 of the 8 playoff teams, and we could still get up to 7 of 8, with the Phillies just 2 losses out of the wild card spot.

Our NL predictions are pretty impressive actually. We have the Marlins and the Nationals in the wrong order, and that could still straighten out (2 games).

We actually had the Cubs and Brewers tied for first (I put the Cubs on top in our standings since they were my pick), and right now just half a game separates them, and we basically have the rest of that division completely correct (Houston and the Reds are currently tied, we have Houston ahead of them).

And in the west, against just the last two teams are flopped. It's very possible we could end up with 14 of the 16 teams in their correct spots in the NL.

In the AL we had the Yankees and Red Sox flopped. The rest of the AL East is as it was. The AL Central is our worst division as nobody is currently in the right spot, but only the Twins are off by more than one place, as we had them winning the division and they are in third.

The AL West we have mixed up, but we do have the Angels in first place.

It's very possible that the Mariners and the Twins will be the only 2 teams that we were off more than one spot with. That's awfully good.

Triple Steal Predictions - 2007

Here it is, our combined predictions. There are of course a number of ways to do this, I decided to go with just averaging the won-loss totals from all three of our predictions. We'll be able to see if the sum of our minds is greater than any of us individually or if one of us is being kept down by the other two.




The only division winner we all agreed on was the Yankees. We also all agreed that the Red Sox will be the Wild Card.

We agreed much better on last place teams, as we all have the Royals, Mariners, and Nationals bringing up the rear.

The National League Central was the only division that we all had different winners.

Predictions, Part II

Ross and Sully, feel free to edit my post and put your answers in, or add some new questions...

Will Barry Bonds break Hank Aaron's record this season?
Warren: Yes
Sully: Yes
Ross: Yes

The NL's winning percentage in interleague play will be:
Warren: .480
Sully: .476
Ross: .440

How many of the Chris Youngs will have disappointing seasons?
Warren: 0
Sully: 0
Ross: 1

Ken Griffey, Jr. will play in how many games?
Warren: 98
Sully: 87
Ross: 101

Will a star player get caught using PEDs this season?
Warren: No
Sully: (Caught meaning fail an MLB drug test? In that case, no. But more big names will come out)
Ross: only minor players

Baseball America's 2008 top prospect will be:
Warren: Evan Longoria
Sully: No freaking idea
Ross: Cameron Maybin

The first manager to be fired will be:
Warren: John Gibbons
Sully: Mike Hargrove
Ross: Mike Hargrove

The Mets player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Lastings Milledge
Sully: Mike Pelfry
Ross: Shawn Green (It's my Jew vote. I wonder if he's going to a passover seder tonight)

The Mets player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Jose Reyes
Sully: Moises Alou
Ross: Mike Pelfry

The Yankees player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Alex Rodriguez
Sully: Alex Rodriguez
Ross: Alex Rodriguez, Carl Pavano (all Pavano has to do to exceed expectations is to stay healthy trough April)

The Yankees player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Chien-Ming Wang
Sully: Robinson Cano
Ross: Kei Igawa

The Red Sox player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Wily Mo Pena
Sully: Josh Beckett
Ross: Jon Lester

The Red Sox player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Jon Papelbon
Sully: Coco Crisp
Ross: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Will be knocked down a peg:
Warren: Ryan Howard
Sully: Justin Verlander
Ross: Delmon Young

2006 playoff team least likely to make the playoffs in 2007:
Warren: Dodgers
Sully: Dodgers
Ross: Cadinals

Will Joel Zumaya permanently take over as Tigers closer in 2007?
Warren: Yes
Sully: No
Ross: Yes

The biggest midseason trade acquisition will be:
Warren: Andruw Jones, by the Red Sox (for Jacoby Ellsbury* and Wily Mo Pena)
Sully: Ichiro Suzuki, by the Dodgers (for Chad Billingsley and Andre Ethier)
Ross: Jeff Kent to the Red Sox (for Dustin Pedroia and Daniel Bard**)

First announced rotation member to lose their spot due to ineffectiveness:
Warren: Sidney Ponson (to Matt Garza)
Sully: Sidney Ponson (to anyone)
Ross: Josh Towers

The pitcher with the highest ERA in at least 100 IP will be:
Warren: Brandon Duckworth
Sully: Horacio Ramirez
Ross: Odalis Perez

The pitcher with the lowest ERA in at least 40 IP will be:
Warren: Mike Gonzalez
Sully: Jonathan Broxton
Ross: Mariano Rivera

The number of days we'll go without hearing from Ross after the Yankees are eliminated from the playoffs:
Warren: 24
Sully: 16
Ross: Not Applicable as they will win the World Series

* - Sully says: "If they trade Ellsbury, I'll be very upset."
** - Sully says: "And if they trade Bard, I'll be shocked."

2007 Predictions - Warren

Postseason
Yankees over Angels
Red Sox over Twins
Mets over Brewers
Diamondbacks over Phillies

Yankees over Red Sox
Diamondbacks over Mets

Diamondbacks over Yankees

2007 Predictions

So I don't have ample explanations like Ross does, but I have a fancy spreadsheet! Here goes:



My big surprise is obviously Texas, but far be it from me to bet against a team the year after Buck Showalter's tenure ended. I don't think anything else is too crazy - I wanted to put the Rays ahead of the Orioles, but their pitching is just brutal. Ross, feel free to double-check my math, but it was accurate a few minor updates ago; it may be off by a game or two.

Quick and dirty playoff and awards predictions below before I hit the road to see Elijah Dukes take Pavano deep in his MLB debut tomorrow.

Playoffs:
Rangers 3, Yankees 2
Red Sox 3, Indians 2
Phillies 3, Padres 1
Mets 3, Cardinals 2

Rangers 4, Red Sox 2
Mets 4, Phillies 2

Rangers 4, Mets 2

MVPs:
Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Grady Sizemore
Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Carlos Beltran

Cy Youngs:
Johan Santana, Jeremy Bonderman, Roy Halladay
Jake Peavy, Chris Carpenter, Ben Sheets

Managers:
Ron Washington, Eric Wedge, Joe Torre
Bud Black, Charlie Manuel, Bob Melvin

Rookies:
Alex Gordon, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Delmon Young*
James Loney, Chris Young, Jason Hirsch*

* - edited because I'm an idiot.

Pet Peeves, Part 2

People who don't stand by their predictions.

One of the New York papers put in all of their staff predictions. Of the 9 writers, 7 put the Yankees 1st the other two put the Red Sox first. The two that put the Red Sox first, who did they predict as the AL MVPs? Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez.

That's completely hedging. That's not wanting to be completely wrong, so you choose to not be completely right. There is no way a Yankee wins the MVP if they lose first place in the division for the first time in a decade.

Part 8 of 8, Award Winners

AL MVP:
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Vladimir Guerrero
3. Manny Ramirez

Fine, I didn't excatly go out on a limb here.

AL Cy Young Award
1. Johan Santana
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. Daniel Cabrera

Santana is the Cy Young winner until someone else can prove otherwise. I think Wang can get himself back quickly enough to repeat his coming no where near Santana yet still coming in 2nd place for the Cy Young. And sure maybe I'm jumping the gun on Cabrera, but I need an out on the limb pick somewhere.

AL Rookie of the Year Award
1. Delmon Young
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka
3. Alex Gordon

Matsuzaka is would probably have to be one of the top 5 starters in the AL this season to even have a chance at the award, since enough people will consider anybody with good production who's not a Japanese veteran a better selection. In the AL East it will be hard for Matsuzaka to put up good enough numbers to win the award.

AL Manager of the Year
1. Joe Torre
2. Ron Gardenhire
3. Sam Perlozzo

AL Batting Crown
1. Ichiro Suzuki
2. Robinson Cano
3. Hideki Matsui

Why Matsui? I have no good reason at all, other than I felt like it. There are so many strong candidates in the AL, I think I would actually rank Joe Mauer pretty low down on the list of who I think is most likely to win the title.

AL Home Run Crown
1. David Ortiz
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Manny Ramirez

AL ERA Leaders
1. Johan Santana
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. Daniel Cabrera

AL Win Leaders
1. Johan Santana
2. Andy Pettitte
3. Chien-Ming Wang (Remember, Wang won only 1 game last April)


NL MVP
1. Alfonso Soriano
2. Jose Reyes (undeservingly ranked this high)
3. Albert Pujols

I'm assuming that this would make the first time in history that two players who were traded for each other (straight up at that) won MVP's in the same season. I'm wondering if two players traded for each other ever won MVPs at all (after the trade).

NL Cy Young Award
1. Barry Zito
2. Carlos Zambrano
3. Greg Maddux

Okay, so Maddux is a long shot to be this high, but he's Greg Maddux.

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Mike Pelfrey
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Homer Bailey

I'm still not so sure about a pitcher being named Homer.

NL Manager of the Year Award
1. Lou Piniella
2. Bud Black
3. Willie Randolph


NL Batting Crown
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Albert Pujols
3. Jose Reyes

NL Home Run Crown
1. Alfonso Soriano
2. Ryan Howard
3. Albert Pujols

Hopefully the wind will be blowing out this year at Wrigley

NL Wins Leaders
1. Barry Zito
2. Carlos Zambrano
3. Greg Maddux

NL ERA Leaders
1. Barry Zito
2. Carlos Zambrano
3. Jake Peavy

Part 7 of 8, Standings and Postseason

AL East
Yankees 101-61
Red Sox 91-71
Orioles 86-76
Blue Jays 84-78
D-Rays 61-101

AL Central
Twins 90-72
White Sox 89-73
Tigers 88-74
Indians 81-81
Royals 58-104

AL West
Angels 92-70
Athletics 86-76
Rangers 80-82
Mariners 70-92

NL East
Mets 92-70
Braves 89-73
Phillies 82-80
Marlins 72-90
Nationals 63-99

NL Central
Cubs 87-75
Brewers 83-79
Astros 80-82
Cardinals 79-83
Reds 76-86
Pirates 67-95

NL West
Padres 89-73
Giants 87-75
Dodgers 82-80
D-Backs 76-86
Rockies 69-83

Playoffs:
ALDS 1: Yankees over Twins in 4
ALDS 2: Red Sox over Angels in 5

NLDS 1: Mets over Cubs in 5
NLDS 2: Padres over Braves in 4

ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox in 6
NLCS: Mets over Padres in 7

World Series: Yankees over Mets in 5

Part 6 of 8, NL West

1st Place – San Diego Padres
I don’t think very much of the Padre hitting, as the Brothers Giles are past their prime. They really have nobody in their lineup who scares you at all. However it is two other past their prime players who I think will have this team in first place. After a nice young group that make up their top 3 starters with Peavy, Young, and Hensley, there is nothing like having two guys with 563 career wins bringing up the back-end. The down-side to that of course is that those 563 wins comes with 85 years of age.

I don’t doubt for a second though that if Maddux and Wells are healthy they’ll pitch as many innings as any starters in the league. The Padres bullpen is very top heavy with Hoffman, Linebrink, and Meredith. That should be enough if Maddux and Wells stay healthy enough, as they won’t have to go to the weak part when they have leads.


2nd Place – San Francisco Giants
Wow, am I in a pickle here or what. I can’t root for Barry Bonds. But if I don’t I’m rooting against my bet with Sully that the Giants will win more games than the A’s. The only way I win the bet is if Barry Bonds stays healthy, as he is the Giants’ offense. What’s amazing though, is that there is so little power in from the California teams in this division, that if Bonds plays in 81 games this season, he may hit more home runs than any of his teammates, any Dodgers, and any Padres.

The other person I’m counting on is the other Barry. It is this Barry, Mr. Zito, that inspired me to make this bet (while drinking I should point out), in the first place. I have always thought that Zito would have a big first year with the Giants. If he won 16 games (as much as any NL pitcher won last year) with the A’s, how good should he be in the NL. He’s a better pitcher than Bronson Arroyo, and look how well Aroyo’s transition went.

I’m also counting on Matt Cain, as I’m not sure anything can help a back end of a rotation that still has Russ Ortiz.


3rd Place – Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s possible the Dodgers won’t have any player on their team hit 20 home runs. After all, the only player in their lineup who hit 20 last season was Nomar, and he hit exactly 20.

This team is going to need Jason Schmidt to stay healthy to have a chance. They’re not going to be hitting much, so it’s going to need to be Schmidt, Lowe, and Penny that lead the way for the Dodgers. Randy Wolf and Brett Tomko could cause lots of problems at the back-end of the rotation. The bullpen is fair, but I don’t trust Saito.


4th Place – Arizona Diamondbacks
I personally think both Stephen Drew and Chris Young will flop. That being said, I don’t the D-Backs have a chance. I know Drew made a great impression with his ML Debut last season, but he wasn’t that impressive for the PCL before that. Chris Young batted only .239 in 22 Cactus League games. That’s weak.

Speaking of weak, that’s a good way to describe the D-Backs pitching staff after Brandon Webb. Livan is currently their #2 while Randy Johnson battles a back injury, which is coincidental since I believe his half-brother currently holds the #2 spot on the Mets, while Pedro gets healthy. I would expect Randy Johnson to lower his ERA significantly being back in the NL, but without the Yankee offense behind him, don’t expect those 17-win seasons he was able to put up in NY (not that anybody puts up a 17-win season in the NL these days anyway). The D-Backs will need a big season out of Micah Owings if they are going to compete, and probably need more help from a strong AAA pitching staff as well.

Their closer had a 5.54 ERA last season and recently hurt himself with a car door. I think that’s all you really need to know about their bullpen.


5th Place – Colorado Rockies
I don’t know about you guys, but I can’t wait to see Kaz Matsui’s first at bat of the season. We already know the rest of his at bats won’t be productive, but can he do it 4 years in a row?

Humidor or no Humidor, this team does not hit nearly enough for a team with Aaron Cook as the ace. Rodrigo Lopez lost 18 games last year, and he’s their #3. That means they think two of their starters are worse than a guy who went 9-18 with a 5.90 ERA, and the sad think is they’re probably right.

Part 5 of 8, NL Central

1st Place – Chicago Cubs
After the Cubs let me down completely last season, I was convinced I would not pick them to win the division this season. However, here I am, doing it again. However, I’ve been a huge fan of Lou Piniella for a long time, and I’m giving him a free pass on his D-Ray years.

With Soriano, a healthy Lee and Ramirez in their lineup, they have 3 legitimate huge power bats. Murton, Barrett, and Jones are all going to hit some too, and Piniella can always get people to hit.

If there was ever a pitcher designed for Lou Piniella, it’s Carlos Zambrano. Ted Lilly should have a very strong year going over the NL. It will be the back end of the rotation that will determine if the Cubs can win the division, and the less the team can use the bullpen, the better.

2nd Place -- Milwaukee Brewers
I don’t think I’ve picked the Brewers this high since Robin Yount was playing. And I don’t even think they’re good. But they are average, and that could be enough for 2nd place in this division.

The Brewers lineup is uninspiring, but with some decent young talent may be able to hit enough. They’ll need Prince Fielder to step up and hit an awful lot. Their pitching staff is I guess what could be termed as “solid’. They could very well have 5 starting pitchers with ERA’s between 4.00 and 4.50. If the Brewers want to win the division, Ben Sheets will have to step up the be a true ace.

With a starting staff that should pitch enough innings, the bullpen probably won’t hurt the team. If a couple of the starters fall off and are getting hit around, the bullpen will get exposed as well, and the team will drop like a brick.

3rd Place -- Houston Astros
The Astros are going to need major production from Luke Scott and Jason Lane in leftfield, as the Astros are a very traditional team with all of their hitting coming from the corners. A rapidly declining 41-year old second baseman may represent all of the team’s up the middle production.

Jason Jennings and Woody Williams are no Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. With a weak back-end of the rotation, and a bullpen that’s anchored with a closer that had a 5.28 ERA last season, and may be on baseball’s permanent head-case list, the Astros may run into a great deal of problems.

The best thing the Astros could do for themselves is hang around the top half of the division at least until Roger Clemens makes up his mind on where to pitch this season, as they’ll need him to have any chance at the playoffs. If they fall off very early, expect them to fall off even more later.

Oswalt will need to win his starts.


4th Place -- St. Louis Cardinals
I’m still not sure how this team won the World Series. However, I don’t think a repeat of that is in store. The lineup doesn’t have much after Albert Pujols. The bullpen has little after Isringhausen, and the rotation is pathetic after Carpenter.

The team is going to need big seasons out of Scott Rolen and Adam Wainwright if they are going to have any hope of getting to October to try to back up their championship.


5th Place – Cincinnati Reds
37. That’s how old Ken Griffey Jr. is. It’s also how many home runs he needs to get to 600. That’s amazing for many reasons, none more than the fact that he’s this close while only averaging 92 games played for the past 6 seasons. Of course this is the reason he won’t join the very exclusive 600 home run club this season. His health is also the reason the Reds won’t be able to compete. They don’t have a deep enough team without him.

Call me a bit skeptical, but I don’t see Josh Hamilton filling in valiantly for Griffey when he goes down. There’s very little difference in this division between 2nd and 5th place. So expect the Reds to stay in contention until Griffey goes down.

At that point the lineup won’t have enough to make up for the back end of the rotation. The Reds will need repeat performances out of Arroyo and Harang to have a chance to win the division.


6th Place – Pittsburgh Pirates
They should have signed Barry Bonds this off-season. Crazy idea you think? Sure, but since they haven’t had a winning record in any season since Bonds left 14 seasons ago, how could it hurt?

That’s right, after 3 straight division crowns in Bonds’ last 3 seasons with the Pirates, they’ve had 14 consecutive losing seasons, and they have put themselves in prime position to make it 15 straight years.

You almost feel sorry for Jason Bay, just lost out there in Pittsburgh. For the Pirates to have any hope of competing they will need many players to play above their heads, especially Zach Duke. If Duke doesn’t win 20 (which he won’t) the Pirates don’t win the NL Central.

Part 4 of 8, NL East

1st Place -- New York Mets
The Mets lineup is the class of the National League. They have a very AL-like lineup. They have a huge middle of the order with Beltran, Delgado, and Wright. Jose Reyes turns 24 this season, which is probably the amount of home runs he’ll hit as he continues to develop. Jose Valentin, Moises Alou, and Shawn Green are the type of veteran hitters that you want to round out your roster to make a playoff run, and that’s the biggest way that the Mets separate themselves from a team like the Braves who are using young and very unproven players to fill out their lineup. LoDuca is one of the better hitting catchers, but he turns 35 in April, so we’ll see if he has the catcher drop-off yet or not.

The Mets are going to be a very streaky team due to their rotation. The team's bats are going to have to pick up a lot of the slack. The Mets have only one starting pitcher (Tom Glavine), who finished last season more than 1 win over .500. Tom Glavine will have to pitch well for the Mets to win the division. They could also use Mike Pelfrey to live up the phenom-hype as well.

The bullpen is okay, but probably won’t be nearly as good as last season. The Mets will also need Pedro to come back strong. While I think the Mets will win the division, I also think it won’t be until late in the season that they take over 1st place.


2nd Place -- Atlanta Braves
Starting the year with Scott Thorman, Kelly Johnson, and Ryan Langerhans is dangerous. However, the other 5 spots of the Atlanta order are formidable, especially since they have one of the top hitting catchers in the game.

I think Tim Hudson is going to bounce back this year and have a much better season. He’ll need to considering the Braves have a very weak back-end of the rotation with Redman and Cormier.

The Braves bullpen is strong though, so while the Braves’ streak of division titles and playoff appearances ended last season, they did not have enough of a drop-off to where they are “rebuilding”, they should be able to stay in the race all year.


3rd Place -- Philadelphia Phillies
Sorry, Jimmy Rollins. As good as Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are, the Phillies lineup doesn’t compare to the Mets lineup. They have 4 positions without much power, and Jimmy Rollins isn’t exactly the greatest table setter in baseball.

The Phillies starting rotation is uninspiring, but may be solid. It should be good enough at the beginning of the season to stay ahead of the Mets for a while. The Phillies bullpen should be okay but not spectacular. The Phillies are a lot like NL teams that will be in contention, okay in a lot of places, but no part of the team is spectacular.


4th Place --Florida Marlins
The Marlins have what’s developing into a nice lineup, with one of baseball’s great stars in the middle of it. For the Marlins to compete they are going to need big season from their top 3 starters in both ERA and innings pitched (which is where they’ll probably come up short). Willis will be the rock of the rotation, but they need big years from Olsen and Sanchez.

The bullpen is what’s going to have them fall apart in the end. I would expect them to spend the first couple of months in contention, but have a steep dropoff in the second half of the season, finishing well out of contention.


5th Place -- Washington Nationals
The Nationals are going to be terrible. Their lineup is the worst in the NL East, and their starting pitching is almost ugly to look at. Their entire rotation combined for 2 ML wins last season. John Patterson is the staff ace, and he’s never won more than 9 games in a season. Of course nobody in their rotation has ever won more than 10.

They’re right up there with the Royals in a guaranteed last place finish.

One of My Biggest Pet Peeves

Bill Madden of the Daily News did his predictions, including standings.

While baseball rules, as they have since the beginning of baseball time, state that for every win their must be a loss.

However not in Bill Madden's world. When adding up his standings, the National League will play 34 games under .500. And while we all know how competitive the American League is this year, I guess Mr. Madden had them stealing some wins too, as they have the AL 77 games over .500.

Hmm......

2007 Predictions, Part 3 of 8, AL West

This is another tough division that will come down to very unknown quantities. Keys for teams include names like Bobby Crosby, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver & Casey Kotchman, Sammy Sosa and Eric Gagne.

The starting pitching in this division is so iffy, that there's not a single pitcher that you can say, "well, he'll have an ERA under 4.00 this season" with any confidence. The three most taleneted pitchers are Weaver, Harden, and Hernandez. Hernandez comes off of a horrible year, Harden off of injuries, and Weaver is a sophomore who will probably start the year on the DL.

So here we go:

1st Place: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels stregnth, as it has been for many years now, lies in the bullpen, with K-Rod leading the way.

They will need to get Weaver back soon and for him to be the ace, which is a tall order for a sophomore, but there have been plenty of pitchers who have excelled in their sophomore seasons. Lackey is fine as a #2 starter in this division, and with their bullpen, that minimizes the trouble Santana, Escobar, and Saunders can get into.

As far as the lineup, they are going to need much better offense from Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman. I think they'll get it. I think Kendrick will hit about .310 (and since he doesn't walk, he'll need to). Napoli is an oddity behind the plate with his really low batting average, but high OBP and nice power.


2nd Place: Oakland Athletics
The A's are going to need a big bounce back season from Bobby Crosby. As it stands now, they don't have a single infielder who batted above .250 last season. Except for Nick Swisher they're not getting that much production out of their outfield. We'll see how Mike Piazza does as a full-time DH.

If they are to win this division, they will need Harden to step up and be a true ace. Blanton, Haren, and Loiza are all fine pitchers, but I don't expect them to get much offensive support. The bullpen is top heavy so they'll need their starters to go long into games.


3rd Place: Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers will desperately need huge contributions from both Eric Gagne and Sammy Sosa if they are to compete for the AL West title.

Sosa is huge because if he hits at DH, that will allow Frank Catalanotto into the outfield, which right now stands as Wilkerson, Lofton, and Nelson Cruz. That is a very weak hitting outfield, but of course the Rangers have a very strong hitting infield. Their top 4 starters are all 4.5 - 5 ERA guys, who can go 6 innings. It's nice to see that Bruce Chen looks to be winning the battle for 5th starter, as that will make it the 9th team for the 29-year old. As a lefty, he has a real chance to set some records still, especially if he gets released mid-season which is very possible.

If Gange can pitch like he used to pitch, that would shorten the game by an inning for the Rangers, where the 7th inning would be the big hump inning for them. If Sosa is hitting along with that infield, that could be just enough to put them over the top.


4th Place: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners lineup is not a bad one for this division. I expect a big year from Ichiro. To go along with Johjima, Sexson, and Beltre, they can hit enough for the AL West. However, I don't have much confidence in Felix Hernandez. For them to have any chance he's going to not only need to step up his performance in ERA, but he's going to need to start pitching much deeper into games. That's where their real issues lie.

It's hard to be confident in any of their pitchers going late into games, which means there is no bridge to Putz. They are going to lose to many games innings 6-8 to stay in the race the entire season.

AL East Updated

VORP totals updated with Papelbon in the bullpen - BP did two projections for Papelbon (as a starter as a closer), so it is different than just swapping him out for Tavarez, who the Red Sox have announced as the fifth starter.

Yankees	Blue Jays	Red Sox	Orioles	Devil Rays
M. Rivera (18.8)	B. Ryan (23.4)	J. Papelbon (18.0)	C. Ray (11.1)	S. McClung (0.3)
K. Farnsworth (12.0)	J. Accardo (9.6)	M. Timlin (6.5)	D. Baez (6.9)	A. Reyes (5.0*)
S. Proctor (11.1)	J. Frasor (10.5)	B. Donnelly (8.3)	C. Bradford (11.7)	D. Miceli (3.9)
L. Vizcaino (10.9)	B. League (12.4)	J. Pineiro (5.1)	J. Walker (7.9)	C. Orvella (7.8)
M. Myers (4.3)	B. Tallet (5.7)	J. Romero (5.5)	T. Williams (8.1)	R. Lugo (5.9)

Totals:

Blue Jays: 61.6
Yankees: 57.1
Orioles: 45.7
Red Sox: 43.4
Devil Rays: 22.9

Big difference, but it still slots them fourth in the division. With a few breaks, they're better than Baltimore, though, and taking Tavarez out of the bullpen is addition by subtraction. Papelbon's projection seems a little low to me; BP's probably a little worried about his injury at the end of last year.

As for the rotations, BP only did one projection for Tavarez, but I'll give him his VORP from last year, which he split between the 'pen (awful) and the rotation (very good).

Yankees	Blue Jays	Red Sox	Orioles	Devil Rays
M. Mussina (29.3)	R. Halladay (50.4)	C. Schilling (36.2)	E. Bedard (26.6)	S. Kazmir (27.8)
C. Wang (27.5)	A. Burnett (35.8)	D. Matsuzaka (35.9)	D. Cabrera (22.1)	J. Shields (17.9)
A. Pettitte (29.7)	G. Chacin (7.3)	J. Beckett (26.6)	A. Loewen (20.0)	J. Seo (3.0)
K. Igawa (24.4)	T. Okha (7.8*)	T. Wakefield (17.7)	J. Wright (9.0)	C. Fossum (8.5)
C.Pavano (13.7)	J. Thomson (2.7)	J. Tavarez (12.4**)	S. Trachsel (8.7*)	J. Howell (14.9)

Totals:

Red Sox: 128.8
Yankees: 124.6
Blue Jays: 104.0
Orioles: 86.4
Devil Rays: 72.1

Again, the Sox stay in the same spot, but they're brought back to the pack quite a bit. On the whole, the Red Sox lose a half a run with the switch, so it looks to be a short-term push. And even that assumes that Tavarez and any other fifth starters they go through can handle starting for a few months until Lester (projected VORP of 10.5 over 134 innings) steps in.

2007 Predictions, Part 2 of 8, AL Central

This is a hard division to pick. Except for last place that is. Wow, the Royals are terrible. However, I can see reasonable arguments for any alignment of the other four teams in this division. None of the teams have the balanced lineups of the AL East.

This could be a 4-way race down to the end of the season. I'll do my best to differentiate though:

1st Place: Minnesota Twins
Can a bullpen win a division? I guess that's what I'm counting on with this pick. The Twins have the only closer in the AL Central who had an ERA under 3.75 last year. Joe Nathan, along with Rincon, Crain, Reyes, Neshek, and Guerrier make up a terrific bullpen.

This makes Johan Santana, by far, the most important part of the Twins puzzle. Not only is he going to have to pitch to his usual greatness, but he's going to have to throw 8 innings often, as it's going to be up to him to give the bullpen days off.

The Twins are in desperate need of Liriano, who they won't have at all this season. Boof Bonser (wasn't Boof the name of Michael J. Fox's girlfriend in Teen Wolf?) is sadly their #2 starter. 3, 4, & 5, Ortiz, Silva, and Garza all had ERA's over 5.50 last season. As I'm writing this I'm wondering why I'm putting them first.

The Twins lineup of course is led by Mauer and Morneau. The biggest problem of the Twins lineup is that they have very little power. 6 of their 9 hitters can't get the ball out even in their homer friendly ballpark. I expect Mauer's power to increase some this year while his average drops (just because it has to). They are going to need Castillo to get his on base percentage back up.

If Nick Punto's average drops from last season, as it probably will, he becomes almost useless. Rondell White's no great shakes out in left, and Jason Kubel doesn't intimidate from the DH spot.

To get the division crown this season, they will need at least one of those bottom 3 starters to step up and perform well.


2nd Place - Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have some definite holes in their offense. Their shortstop last season, Juan Uribe, had a .257 OBP, and he remains their shortstop at least until he has to stand trial in the Domincan for shooting a farmer. Their leftfield/centerfield combination of Erstad, Podsednik, and Mackowiak, may pull off not combining to hit 10 home runs. Erstad hit zero last season (in 40 games) and hasn't hit more than 10 since 2000. Podsednik has combined to hit 3 over the past 2 seasons, and Mackowiak is the big slugger of the group having hit 5 home runs last season.

However, Iguchi and Pierzynski both hit fine for their positions, and Crede is fine at 3rd. Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, and Jim Thome remain a formidable middle of the lineup.

The White Sox top 4 starters of Contreras, Buehrle, Garland, and Vazquez are hardly spectacular. However any of them can go out and throw a strong game at any point, or get shelled. The one thing all four of them do is throw innings. It's very possible all four could pitch 200 innings in the season. This is important because they have an average bullpen with their top 4 relief pitchers (although Jenks had an ERA of 4 last season), and the back end of their bullpen is very weak. With starters who go many innings, that should not hurt them too much.


3rd Place - Detriot Tigers
I don't know how this team won the AL Pennant. It's a good thing they got Gary Sheffield, because their offense is in pretty bad shape. Ivan Rodriguez is going to need to hit .300 to be anywhere near the hitter he used to be. If I had to guess I'd say he does hit around .300, but with his power numbers droping, and his lack of walks, he needs to keep a high batting average. They have a first baseman who may hit less home runs than the Yankee starting first baseman, in Sean Casey.

Polanco, Guillen, and Inge make up a pretty good rest of the infield, although not much power. Granderson, Monroe and Ordonez make up for an okay outfield, but not intimidating, and then Sheffield at DH. They will be relying a lot on those young arms of theirs.

Kenny Rogers should have a drop-off as he'll be closely watched this season. Bonderman, Verlander, Maroth, and Robertson are going to have to pitch well to make up for a lineup that won't produce much, and to keep the innings away from the bullpen. Todd Jones is the closer, that's never a good sign. However, on the whole, as long as they don't have to pitch too many innings, this could be an above average bullpen, that should be led by Joel Zumaya, who I'm surprised that he doesn't already have the closer job (but my guess is he will by May). Who here trusts Jose Mesa? That's why they need to limit the bullpen innings.


4th Place - Cleveland Indians
I originally had them in first place, but kept dropping them. The only thing that would surprise me in this division is if the Royals don't finish last. The Indians advantage lies in their starting rotation. They could have 5 guys, with Sabathia, Lee, Westrbook, Sowers, and Byrd with ERA's under 5, and maybe all under 4.50. However, Lee looks like he may miss the beginning of the season, and if any of these 5 guys miss any time, they don't even have replacement level players to fill in. It could get ugly quick and this rotation is not know for health.

They also have a weak closer in Borowski, and after a few average guys, their bullpen isn't that strong. The lineup will need a big bounce back year from Peralta. Barfield doesn't walk at all. They'll also need a decent year from Marte. They have three dangerous hitters in their lineup with Hafner, Sizemore, and Victor Martinez. I think Martinez will be their downfall. As amazing as it is having a catcher hit the way Martinez hits, and as valuable as that is, he threw out only 16 of 116 baserunners last season, and I'm assuming the 16 who got got all were running with a limp.

I remember a game last season where the Yankees were walking to second base against him. They quickly put him at first base the next day. They are going to have to take him out of games where they have a 1-run lead or a tie game, as it's too easy to play for one run against the Indians with him behind the plate. But if the game goes on, Kelly Shoppach is now batting in the heart of the lineup.

It's going to be really hard on the pitching staff, giving up all those extra bases from behind the plate. It's not like this is a team getting a great deal of production out of first base. The prospect Ryan Garko that they want to put there, might not get the job as he has a problem catching the ball. Victor Martinez is actually an above average first baseman. Kelly Shoppach's defensive skills behind the plate and Martinez's at first base, would probably make up for more than enough of the lost offense going from Garko to Shoppach in the lineup.


5th Place - Kansas City Royals
If they finish any higher than last place, I'm assuming Alex Gordon will have been the first rookie since Fred Lynn to have won the MVP award. This team is putrid. Two of their starters had 6+ ERA's last season. Gil Meche is their overwhelming ace. The bullpen is horrible. They can't hit. Gordon is their only hope for any excitement, and if he starts out well, he's going to get pitched around, which could be frustrating for a rookie.

His best hope is that they're losing by 4 runs early so there is no need to pitch around him. I would unquestionably take the Scranton starting rotation of that of the Royals.

There we have it. I'm picking Joe Nathan and company to win the AL Central.