Thursday, March 22, 2007

AL East Updated

VORP totals updated with Papelbon in the bullpen - BP did two projections for Papelbon (as a starter as a closer), so it is different than just swapping him out for Tavarez, who the Red Sox have announced as the fifth starter.


Yankees

Blue Jays

Red Sox

Orioles

Devil Rays

M. Rivera (18.8)B. Ryan (23.4)J. Papelbon (18.0)
C. Ray (11.1)
S. McClung (0.3)
K. Farnsworth (12.0)
J. Accardo (9.6)
M. Timlin (6.5)
D. Baez (6.9)
A. Reyes (5.0*)
S. Proctor (11.1)
J. Frasor (10.5)B. Donnelly (8.3)
C. Bradford (11.7)
D. Miceli (3.9)
L. Vizcaino (10.9)
B. League (12.4)
J. Pineiro (5.1)J. Walker (7.9)
C. Orvella (7.8)
M. Myers (4.3)
B. Tallet (5.7)J. Romero (5.5)
T. Williams (8.1)
R. Lugo (5.9)

Totals:

Blue Jays: 61.6
Yankees: 57.1
Orioles: 45.7
Red Sox: 43.4
Devil Rays: 22.9

Big difference, but it still slots them fourth in the division. With a few breaks, they're better than Baltimore, though, and taking Tavarez out of the bullpen is addition by subtraction. Papelbon's projection seems a little low to me; BP's probably a little worried about his injury at the end of last year.

As for the rotations, BP only did one projection for Tavarez, but I'll give him his VORP from last year, which he split between the 'pen (awful) and the rotation (very good).

Yankees

Blue Jays

Red Sox

Orioles

Devil Rays

M. Mussina (29.3)R. Halladay (50.4)C. Schilling (36.2)E. Bedard (26.6)S. Kazmir (27.8)
C. Wang (27.5)A. Burnett (35.8)D. Matsuzaka (35.9)D. Cabrera (22.1)J. Shields (17.9)
A. Pettitte (29.7)G. Chacin (7.3)J. Beckett (26.6)A. Loewen (20.0)J. Seo (3.0)
K. Igawa (24.4)T. Okha (7.8*)T. Wakefield (17.7)J. Wright (9.0)C. Fossum (8.5)
C.Pavano (13.7)J. Thomson (2.7)J. Tavarez (12.4**)
S. Trachsel (8.7*)J. Howell (14.9)

Totals:

Red Sox: 128.8
Yankees: 124.6
Blue Jays: 104.0
Orioles: 86.4
Devil Rays: 72.1

Again, the Sox stay in the same spot, but they're brought back to the pack quite a bit. On the whole, the Red Sox lose a half a run with the switch, so it looks to be a short-term push. And even that assumes that Tavarez and any other fifth starters they go through can handle starting for a few months until Lester (projected VORP of 10.5 over 134 innings) steps in.

3 comments:

Ross said...

Adding the two VORP's together:
Yankees: 181.7
Red Sox: 172.2
Blue Jays: 165.6
Orioles: 132.1
Devil Rays: 95 (ouch)

Sully said...

So that puts the Yankees top ten pitchers about one win better than the Red Sox top ten, and almost two wins better than Toronto's. I find that to be a little bit surprising, but they're all very close, which bodes well for a great pennant race. I'll go through the hitters later.

Warren said...

On Papelbon, I think the Red Sox just originally thought it would be easier to find a closer than another starter, and eventually realized that it wasn't true. And if the market for closers is so crazy, then putting Papelbon back in the closer's role gives them the opportunity to deal him at some point and get a lot in return.