Friday, November 02, 2007

2007 Predictions - Looking Back, Part I

Let's take a look back at some of our preseason predictions - I'll start with the random questions I threw out there...

Will Barry Bonds break Hank Aaron's record this season?

Warren: Yes
Sully: Yes
Ross: Yes
Answer: Yes

The NL's winning percentage in interleague play will be:
Warren: .480
Sully: .476
Ross: .440
Answer: .456

How many of the Chris Youngs will have disappointing seasons?
Warren: 0
Sully: 0
Ross: 1
Answer: This is a judgment call, of course, but I'd say 0. Chris Young (ARI) only hit .237 (with an OBP of .295), but he did 32 homers. The tall Chris Young had a fantastic season.

Ken Griffey, Jr. will play in how many games?
Warren: 98
Sully: 87
Ross: 101
Answer: 144

Will a star player get caught using PEDs this season?
Warren: No
Sully: (Caught meaning fail an MLB drug test? In that case, no. But more big names will come out)
Ross: only minor players
Answer: No

Baseball America's 2008 top prospect will be:
Warren: Evan Longoria
Sully: No freaking idea
Ross: Cameron Maybin
Answer: Too early to say for sure. My guess is that it will be Jay Bruce.

The first manager to be fired will be:
Warren: John Gibbons
Sully: Mike Hargrove
Ross: Mike Hargrove
Answer: Sam Perlozzo. Hargrove resigned only a couple of weeks after that, though.

The Mets player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Lastings Milledge
Sully: Mike Pelfrey
Ross: Shawn Green (It's my Jew vote. I wonder if he's going to a passover seder tonight)
Answer: Probably one of John Maine, Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernandez - all ended up with ERAs under 4. Personally, I was most surprised by El Duque. Green did exceed my expectations, though.

The Mets player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Jose Reyes
Sully: Moises Alou
Ross: Mike Pelfrey
Answer: I'll go with Carlos Delgado. Reyes was disappointing in that he had a huge April, but was good-not-great the rest of the way. Pelfrey was a bit of a disappointment as well.

The Yankees player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Alex Rodriguez
Sully: Alex Rodriguez
Ross: Alex Rodriguez, Carl Pavano (all Pavano has to do to exceed expectations is to stay healthy trough April)
Answer: Honestly, it's probably Posada or Joba, but A-Rod's not a bad answer. I don't think he exceeded our expectations by a huge amount.

The Yankees player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Chien-Ming Wang
Sully: Robinson Cano
Ross: Kei Igawa
Answer: Igawa was certainly terrible, but a lot of people did suspect he wouldn't be any good. Damon and Mussina were both pretty disappointing.

The Red Sox player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Wily Mo Pena
Sully: Josh Beckett
Ross: Jon Lester
Answer: Either Beckett or Pedroia, in my opinion.

The Red Sox player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Jon Papelbon
Sully: Coco Crisp
Ross: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Answer: Well, both of you guys had good picks...but there are many to choose from. Drew and Lugo would probably be considered bigger disappointments than Dice-K, though.

Will be knocked down a peg:
Warren: Ryan Howard
Sully: Justin Verlander
Ross: Delmon Young
Answer: Young was the best guess of these three by far.

2006 playoff team least likely to make the playoffs in 2007:
Warren: Dodgers
Sully: Dodgers
Ross: Cardinals
Answer: 3 for 3.

Will Joel Zumaya permanently take over as Tigers closer in 2007?
Warren: Yes
Sully: No
Ross: Yes
Answer: He got injured, but probably wouldn't have taken over even if healthy. And now he got hurt again.

The biggest midseason trade acquisition will be:
Warren: Andruw Jones, by the Red Sox (for Jacoby Ellsbury* and Wily Mo Pena)
Sully: Ichiro Suzuki, by the Dodgers (for Chad Billingsley and Andre Ethier)
Ross: Jeff Kent to the Red Sox (for Dustin Pedroia and Daniel Bard**)
Answer: Mark Teixiera by the Braves. None of these players went anywhere.

First announced rotation member to lose their spot due to ineffectiveness:
Warren: Sidney Ponson (to Matt Garza)
Sully: Sidney Ponson (to anyone)
Ross: Josh Towers
Answer: Towers lost his starting job after only 4 starts, although he got his job back and eventually made another 11 starts. Ponson lasted 7 starts for some reason.

The pitcher with the highest ERA in at least 100 IP will be:
Warren: Brandon Duckworth
Sully: Horacio Ramirez
Ross: Odalis Perez
Answer: Sully was so close - Ramirez had an ERA of 7.16 in 98 innings. The real answer was Adam Eaton - 6.29 in 161.2 innings. (Nice use of eight million bucks.) Duckworth only made 3 starts and was decent out of the bullpen (4.53 ERA in 45.2 innings). Perez was bad (5.57 ERA in 137.1 innings).

The pitcher with the lowest ERA in at least 40 IP will be:
Warren: Mike Gonzalez
Sully: Jonathan Broxton
Ross: Mariano Rivera
Warren: J.J. Putz (1.39). Gonzalez had a 1.59 ERA in 17 innings before having Tommy John surgery, Broxton had a 2.85 ERA in 82 innings, and Rivera ran out of time to get his ERA back under 3, ending up with a 3.15 ERA in 71.1 innings.

The number of days we'll go without hearing from Ross after the Yankees are eliminated from the playoffs:
Warren: 24
Sully: 16
Ross: Not Applicable as they will win the World Series
Answer: 23. Welcome back, Ross.

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