Defaming McNamee???

McNamee's lawyer is saying that depending on what Clemens says in his 60 minutes interview, that they will be considering pressing charges against Clemens for defamation.

I don't exactly see how defamation is possible.

Clemens is going to call McNamee a liar.

There is no question this is true. Either he lied all the times he said he never gave Clemens steroids or HGH, or he lied when he said he did give them to him. Either way we know he lied.

Right now McNamee's reputation is that of liar, drug pusher, and guy who gave a woman date rape drug and sexually assaulted her (although not convicted of that charge).

How can anybody defame this guy?

The Real Grimsley Eleven

Well, I'll say it. I was wrong. I rushed to believe the first list of released names on the Grimsley Affidavit, and it turns out a lot of those names were wrong, namely Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, Brian Roberts, and Jay Gibbons. Here are the details of the actual affidavit.

I really hope that whoever it was at the L.A. Times that published that first list gives up his faulty source, or at least admits that he, um, made some mistakes in his reporting.

How does this affect the Mitchell Report? It's hard to say. As wrong as the original Grimsley report was, Pettitte, Roberts, and Gibbons have since admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs. This new information is definitely good news for Clemens, but given that the other three are guilty to some degree, and that the same guy that told the truth about Pettitte also accused Clemens, it still doesn't look good. I still believe McNamee, but not as much; last week I would have thought there was a 5% chance that Clemens was clean, but now I'd say it's closer to 15%.

Mitchell Report Stuff

I'm trying to figure this whole thing out. The steroid thing is pretty cut and dry. Anabolic Steroids (the kind of steroids that athletes use) have been on the federal controlled substance list (meaning they are completely illegal).

HGH does not appear on that list.

You can get HGH legally from a doctor, sort of.

First, it should be mentioned that you can go online and purchase it without a problem. You can purchase it online without a prespricption in pill and spray formats (which many doctors say means it won't work at all either). Some places make you get a doctor's prescription but they are easy to get. Most of their clients are not athletes.

There are only a few completely legal reasons to prescribe HGH for someone, it is estimated that around 75% of the prescriptions written are not for those reasons. This includes clinics that are out there in the open. They are not hiding.

This is where it gets a bit more confusing. In the Mitchell Report it says "The use of HGH is a violation of federal law if not for an authorized purpose, even if with a prescription."

I could not find that anywhere in any law. It is illegal to distribute if not for one of those purposes. Despite it being illegal to distribute, which is not the players' issue, it is being distributed right now for these "illegal uses" out in the open.

5 years ago, well before we were talking about HGH, is it reasonable to say "I went to a clinic that openly advertises HGH for anti-aging, and I took it as it was not a banned substance in baseball or an illegal drug (on the controlled substance list."

In the past few years the laws have been getting a little harder on HGH, and of course it is now a banned substance.

Anybody who was an HGH person prior to 2005 when baseball banned it gets a free-ride in my eyes, including Andy Pettitte.

As far as the report on the whole, it's ridiculously weak, and in my opinion irresponsible. I don't think names should have been named, without a drug test to back up what people said. First it was unfair to the Yankees and Mets. Clearly there were many more people he didn't find out about, it just so happened the two people they were able to get speak were in the Yankee and Met clubhouses. By naming names it makes it seem that the people who were not named are innocent, as opposed to just him not having the source.


The Roger Clemens case Revisited

I think Clemens has a chance to clear is name. Clemens biggest problem in my eyes was he was a "steroids guy", not HGH according to the report. So if it is proven the report is true, you can punish him accordingly.

However, I'm not so sure about proving anything in the report is true, and if he decides to go all out, he can certainly make the case against him look rather weak.

Let's look at the timing. McNamee claims the first time Clemens approached him was in August of 1998. This was not exactly a time that Clemens needed a boost to his career. In 1997, he won the Pitching Triple Crown and his 4th Cy Young award.

In July of 1998 Clemens made 5 starts, going 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA.

Does that sound like a person about to play with performance enhancing drugs for the first time? How do you enhance that?

According to the report there is no knowledge of Clemens using after 1998 until the latter part of the 2000 season. His ERA going into August that year was 3.78 and ended the year at 3.70. Nothing conclusive one way or the other.

Then according to the report they didn't discuss it again until August of 2001. Through July of 2001, Clemens had a won-loss record of 15-1. Does that sound like a person who needs performance enhancers.

The report then says that McNamee never gave Clemens performance enhancing drugs after that. Those years that that includes are his All-Star year in 2003, Cy Young year in 2004, 1.87 ERA year in 2005.

Since he worked so closely with McNamee, it is reasonable to assume that he would not have been getting injections from other people other than him.

There is no proof (to this point) of Clemens buying steroids anywhere. Two of the three times he supposedly started using steroids was when he was perofming at his impressive peak. The timing makes no sense.

The timing of when McNamee talked poorly of Clemens does make sense though. He did so after Clemens fired him. McNamee was in trouble with the Feds. One way to get a reduced sentence is to give a name bigger than yours, he was mad at Clemens and could get a reduced sentence by creatiing this story. (I'm not actually saying he created it or not, but for Clemens' argument, it fits very well).

McNamee is not a sympatheic character as he has a lot of skeletons in his closet. In my opinion Clemens has a very good case against these claims as the timing of when he used makes little to no sense at all. There were other points in his career that he could have used a boost, but not at the points he supposedly used.

Also, according to this, he used it for about 6 months (2 months in 1998, 2 months in 2000, and 2 months in 2001) or a 24 year career. If there is nobody to back up McNamee's claims, Clemens should get out there and point out all of these things. He clearly won't have everybody believe him, but I bet he could turn around enough people to make sure his name is cleared enough for Hall of Fame purposes.

After skimming the report...

I skimmed the report and it wasn't as damaging as I thought it would be to Pettitte and even Clemens.

As for Pettitte, it basically has him using for a couple of weeks while he was on the DL in 2001. That's it.

As for Clemens, it also doesn't have him using after 2001. It was after that his dominant Astro years. Also the timing means that neither of them failed a drug test. I can't imagine either would be suspended as the players' union would never hear for it.

Also, as for their trainer who ratted them out, that didn't happen until after a report that Clemens fired him. The Daily News reported that Clemens let him go in June, his first conversation with Mitchell was in July.

I'm not saying the trainer is lying, but in a court of law a case against Clemens would come up very short. They don't have Clemens ever buying anything. They have no positive drug test. The trainer had previously been quoted as saying that he never gave Clemens anything and the story only changed after Clemens fired him.

I'm not saying it's not true, and while it will hold up in the court of public opinion, it would not under reasonable doubt in a court of law.

The Mitchell Report

I wanted to title this post "LOL!!!!!!!!!" after I read that Clemens is in the report for receiving steroids before and during his time with the Yankees, but I thought that took my irrational hatred for the man too far. I have plenty of questions, though, which I will try to type out in a manner that is readable as I giggle uncontrollably:

- What are the chances that a Santana trade goes down today to try to steal some headlines? 99%?

- Anyone wonder why Tejada was traded yesterday? And why Pettitte officially signed his deal this week?

- Is Clemens a hall-of-famer based on just his years in Boston? I think that's a valid question now, especially since that's the defense everyone uses for Bonds when they talk about his candidacy. Bonds was a hall-of-famer before he likely began juicing. Clemens? Possibly, but I don't think it's a slam dunk.

I realize that I probably think this is more fun than you guys, but wow - today's going to be enjoyable until a Red Sock is named. That's gonna sting.

Homering off of Clemens

Cameron Maybin hit his first big-league home run yesterday, and it was off Roger Clemens (then he got his first big-league hit by pitch in his next at bat). Clemens had 40 Major League wins before Maybin was born. Maybin, at 20 years old, could still be playing in the year 2027.

Reggie Jackson started his career in 1967. Reggie hit a couple of home runs off Clemens. That could be 60 years in between when Reggie started and Maybin finishes. (That probably is not a record for such a thing. It could be about 10 years longer, but I didn't feel like figuring it out).

I want Randolph to start Julio Franco on Friday

On May 14th, 1984 Roger Clemens made his Major League Debut in Cleveland. Julio Franco was the Indians shorstop that game and went 1-for-4.

This also raises the question of has a hitter and pitcher ever faced each other in the Majors more than 23 years after their initial meeting?

I'll be seeing Clemens a lot...

The Yankees have 18 more home games before the All-Star break. I have tickets for 10 of the games. If Clemens starts every 5th game, I will be at all of his home games before the break (coincidentally, that is).

Of course that starts today wtih Pittsburgh. Then the Mets on Friday (I'll be at all 3 Mets games). His following stadium start will be July 2nd against the Twins (which I have tickets to, but that is the only one of the 10 games that I'm not entirely sure I can go to), and finally on my Dad's birthday July 7th against the Angels, which ironically is Old-Timers day.

This brings up the question of how many of the "Old-Timers" will be younger than Roger Clemens. Past Old-Timers include Jim Leyritz, David Cone, and Jim Abbott who are all younger. I'm assuming Joe Girardi will be there this year, and if either Tino Martinez or Paul O'Neill show up, there may be many participants in that game younger than Roger Clemens.

Igawa needs to turn things around quickly....

For a while it looked as if to be in the Yankees' rotation, all a pitcher had to do was be healthy. Kei Igawa has 1 month to proove that he's better than Matt DeSalvo, Darrell Rasner, or whatever other rookie the Yankees toy with at #5. If he can outpitch them, he has one more month to proove he belongs in the rotation with Clemens, Pettitte, Mussina, and Wang. He'll need to be very impressive to do it, as most people are writting Phillip Hughes into the #5 spot (as I did earlier today, before Clemens' announcement), as the Yankees seem to like the prospect of their prized prospect working with Clemens.

I think they'd love for Hughes to join Clemens and Pettitte in their workout program.

Network Busy

Well, I think it's only right that Clemens went to the Yankees seeing that I'm the only one of the three of us who likes the guy, I think I deserved him on my team for that.

It was insane at the ballpark. Nobody could hear what he said the crowd absolutely errupted as soon as they saw his face on the screen.

I feel bad for Darrell Rasner, as he had a great start, his ERA is down to 2.75 and nobody is going to be talking about him, and his chances of sticking with the team for the remainder of the season took a big hit with Clemens signing as well.

As soon as it happened of course I felt like I needed to call everybody. It took a little bit to get through to both of you as my phone said "Network Busy." Grillo, who was at the game with me, was trying to call his brother, but his phone also said "Network Busy." Everybody in the Stadium was trying to call everybody they knew.

I thought it was fitting that Grillo was with me today. First, because not only was Miguel Cairo playing, but he finally raised his average above .000 (Wil Nieves who played as well is still at .000, which is amazing to have two players at .000 who have been on the ML roster for over a month). Also, Grillo was with me at the Roger Clemens 300th win, 4000th K game, which in that game Grillo's favorite player, Miguel Cairo was playing in that one as well, but then he was the road player with the Cardinals.

So good things have happened for me when Cairo, Grillo, and Clemens come together.

Yankee Pitching

Fortunately I'm going to today's game with Rasner starting and not Matt DeSalvo's tomorrow. DeSalvo isn't anything like my other debuts, as if he doesn't pitch well he's not a "bust" as he's not much of a prospect.

DeSalvo will be the 6th rookie to start a game for the Yankees this season. That's insane. Some teams have used six starters, and the Yankees, with the biggest payroll in sports have used 6 rookies.

However, I'm not that worried. Now that Musssina and Wang seem healthy, that's going to make a gigantic difference to the rotation.

The Yankees have scored the most runs in baseball, and that's without Abreu, Damon, Cano, or Matsui doing much offensively (or the first baseman but that was expected).

This team is going to score runs, and it's still possible that the rotation after the all-star break may be:

Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Clemens, and Hughes, and that rotation may string an amazing run together when coupled with the Yankee offense. So as horrible as the Yankees have looked so far, they've consistently been a better second half season over the past number of years, and that seems very likely this season as well. I can see the light.

What's Next?

This is getting ridiculous. The Yankees have won only 2 of their last 10 games, and in both of the wins, the rookie starting pitcher went immediately from the game to the DL.

The Yankees currently have on the DL:
Mike Mussina
Carl Pavano (as expected)
Phillip Hughes
Jeff Karstens
Humberto Sanchez

And of course Wang missed the first 3 weeks of the season. I'm assuming that Humberto Sanchez would have had a start by now if he had been healthy and not needed Tommy John surgery.

So the Yankees have had 6 starting pitchers hit the DL this season, that's more starters down than some teams have used this year.

It's hard not to be thinking about Roger Clemens right now. I figure he could make up for Phillip Hughes and Jeff Karstens put together, since he is the age of both of them put together.

Pettitte's Return....

Andy Pettitte will take the mound tomorrow at Yankee Stadium (weather permitting), and it will be the first time since the 2003 World Series.

In many ways nothing has changed. Jeter is still shorstop behind him. Jorge Posada is still his catcher. And Mariano Rivera will still be closing out his games.

Joe Torre is still his manager. He's been playing with Jeter, Rivera, and Posada since before Joe Torre was the Yankee manager. He started playing with them 15 years ago, when only Rivera was old enough to drink, they all played much of their minor league careers together (I'm assuming those teams had pretty good records).

He probably will feel pretty comfortable on the mound tomorrow. Now, to feel even more comfortable, all he needs to do is get Roger Clemens back.

Part 5 of 8, NL Central

1st Place – Chicago Cubs
After the Cubs let me down completely last season, I was convinced I would not pick them to win the division this season. However, here I am, doing it again. However, I’ve been a huge fan of Lou Piniella for a long time, and I’m giving him a free pass on his D-Ray years.

With Soriano, a healthy Lee and Ramirez in their lineup, they have 3 legitimate huge power bats. Murton, Barrett, and Jones are all going to hit some too, and Piniella can always get people to hit.

If there was ever a pitcher designed for Lou Piniella, it’s Carlos Zambrano. Ted Lilly should have a very strong year going over the NL. It will be the back end of the rotation that will determine if the Cubs can win the division, and the less the team can use the bullpen, the better.

2nd Place -- Milwaukee Brewers
I don’t think I’ve picked the Brewers this high since Robin Yount was playing. And I don’t even think they’re good. But they are average, and that could be enough for 2nd place in this division.

The Brewers lineup is uninspiring, but with some decent young talent may be able to hit enough. They’ll need Prince Fielder to step up and hit an awful lot. Their pitching staff is I guess what could be termed as “solid’. They could very well have 5 starting pitchers with ERA’s between 4.00 and 4.50. If the Brewers want to win the division, Ben Sheets will have to step up the be a true ace.

With a starting staff that should pitch enough innings, the bullpen probably won’t hurt the team. If a couple of the starters fall off and are getting hit around, the bullpen will get exposed as well, and the team will drop like a brick.

3rd Place -- Houston Astros
The Astros are going to need major production from Luke Scott and Jason Lane in leftfield, as the Astros are a very traditional team with all of their hitting coming from the corners. A rapidly declining 41-year old second baseman may represent all of the team’s up the middle production.

Jason Jennings and Woody Williams are no Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. With a weak back-end of the rotation, and a bullpen that’s anchored with a closer that had a 5.28 ERA last season, and may be on baseball’s permanent head-case list, the Astros may run into a great deal of problems.

The best thing the Astros could do for themselves is hang around the top half of the division at least until Roger Clemens makes up his mind on where to pitch this season, as they’ll need him to have any chance at the playoffs. If they fall off very early, expect them to fall off even more later.

Oswalt will need to win his starts.


4th Place -- St. Louis Cardinals
I’m still not sure how this team won the World Series. However, I don’t think a repeat of that is in store. The lineup doesn’t have much after Albert Pujols. The bullpen has little after Isringhausen, and the rotation is pathetic after Carpenter.

The team is going to need big seasons out of Scott Rolen and Adam Wainwright if they are going to have any hope of getting to October to try to back up their championship.


5th Place – Cincinnati Reds
37. That’s how old Ken Griffey Jr. is. It’s also how many home runs he needs to get to 600. That’s amazing for many reasons, none more than the fact that he’s this close while only averaging 92 games played for the past 6 seasons. Of course this is the reason he won’t join the very exclusive 600 home run club this season. His health is also the reason the Reds won’t be able to compete. They don’t have a deep enough team without him.

Call me a bit skeptical, but I don’t see Josh Hamilton filling in valiantly for Griffey when he goes down. There’s very little difference in this division between 2nd and 5th place. So expect the Reds to stay in contention until Griffey goes down.

At that point the lineup won’t have enough to make up for the back end of the rotation. The Reds will need repeat performances out of Arroyo and Harang to have a chance to win the division.


6th Place – Pittsburgh Pirates
They should have signed Barry Bonds this off-season. Crazy idea you think? Sure, but since they haven’t had a winning record in any season since Bonds left 14 seasons ago, how could it hurt?

That’s right, after 3 straight division crowns in Bonds’ last 3 seasons with the Pirates, they’ve had 14 consecutive losing seasons, and they have put themselves in prime position to make it 15 straight years.

You almost feel sorry for Jason Bay, just lost out there in Pittsburgh. For the Pirates to have any hope of competing they will need many players to play above their heads, especially Zach Duke. If Duke doesn’t win 20 (which he won’t) the Pirates don’t win the NL Central.

2007 Predictions, Part 1 of 8, AL East

And here we go. Obviously 6 of the parts will be each division and the placement of teams. The 7th part will be standings and postseason, and the 8th part will be award winners.

But it all starts with the AL East.

1st Place - New York Yankees

I think the Yankees will have an easy time with first place this season. The Red Sox starting pitching would have to be off the charts for the Red Sox to overtake the Yankees this year. The Yankee lineup is a monster lineup, with only a weakness at first base. Even that I'm sure they can fix later in the year if they so choose, or put Giambi back at first with Melky joining the starting lineup.

I think Cano is going to develop a lot more power this year, like he showed at the end of last season.

The rotation is extremely steady at the top with Wang, Pettitte, and Mussina. Mussina actually finished ahead of Wang last season in ERA.

I think Wang will win 20 if he stays healthy this year. He was extraordinarily consistent last season losing 1 game each month of the season, for a 19-6 record. However, at the beginning of last season he could not get men out pitching from the stretch. That made for an ERA of 4.80 for April (and only 1 win in April), and an ERA above 4 in May. Once Guidry got those problems worked out with him, Wang's ERA the final four months of the season were staggeringly consistent, with a low of 3.03 and a high of 3.48 during those 4 months. Look for him to have his ERA somewhere in the 3.03 to 3.48 range for this season. For Wang that should easily translate to 20 wins, as he always has astonishingly low pitch counts (that's what not walking or striking anybody out will do for you), so he goes late into games and should get enough decisions to win 20.

I think Pettitte will have a record somewhere around 19-7, with a 3.82 ERA. One could question why I would have him with a lower ERA this season in the AL East than what he had in the NL Central last year, however, he had a miserable start to the season last year. Pettitte's post all-star game ERA was 2.80, which followed his 2.39 ERA in 2005. So I do think his ERA will go up significantly from those levels. The reason I arrived at 3.82, was that was his ERA over his final three years with the Yankees (he had a 49-23 won-loss those years). I don't think he has dropped off from that level, and since he's on the Roger Clemens workout routine, I think it is reasonable to say he can still pitch at a level he used to without age taking too much of a toll.

Mike Mussina is Mike Mussina.

Kei Igawa, I have no idea what to expect from him. One of the reports on him that I read is that he gives up too many fly balls. If this is true, look for him to do significantly better at Yankee Stadium than he does on the road. I think he'll be better than Gil Meche. Of course being in the AL East isn't a good thing for a pitcher, although the Red Sox don't hit lefties particularly well (more on that later).

Carl Pavano, again, who really knows. I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch tonight against the Red Sox lineup. I'm just hoping he can show enough that he pitches well in April and May, and the Yankees can trade him before he gets hurt.

What may make trading him a lot easier, besides that they have 5 legitmate options in their AAA rotation could be Roger Clemens.

I've been thinking about where Clemens will sign, and I do think it will be the Yankees, and it comes down to three reasons:

1) He called last season a "waste" because he did not get to the postseason. Of the three teams he'll consider, the Yankees are obviously the most likely to get to the postseason, as they are the only ones who did last season (as well as their 12-year runs).

2) I don't think he'll start until July this year, meaning the fact that he won't be home like he is in Houston, won't be a big deal, as he's not going to be away from home for that long.

3) Andy Pettitte. They've now pitched the last 8 seasons together. They are playing golf together during spring training. I think it's enough.

If the Yankees do get Clemens, the fact that they have Hughes, Karstens, Rasner, Sanchez, and Ohlendorf in AAA means that even if both Pavano and Igawa implode, or they have other injuries, they are more equipped than ever to handle them.

The bullpen is pretty solid. Rivera leads the way of course. He'll likely be joined by Proctor, Farnsworth, Vizcaino, Myers, Britton, and Villone to start. With Bruney and Colter Bean (or possibly Karstenes or Sanchez) when there or injuries or implosions. It's not a spectacular bullpen, but it should be very solid, esepecially without the overload of work they took on last season with Chacon and Wright both in the rotation and almost never going more than 5 innings a piece. And going with a 7-man bullpen should also lighten the workload and let Torre do a lot of picking and choosing.

I think if you add Clemens to Wang, Mussina, and Pettitte, the Yankees may be set up better for a postseason run than they have been in years.


2nd Place - Boston Red Sox
If things break wrong for the Red Sox, like last season, they could end up in 4th place this time. The first thing that can't go wrong for them to compete is Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz need to stay healthy. There's not much reason to think they won't (assuming Manny wants to be healthy).

The three hitters the Red Sox would have most liked to see have good spring trainings, Jason Varitek, Coco Crisp, and Dustin Pedroia, all seem to be overmatched this Spring. The Red Sox don't hit lefties well. Of their starting 9, only Manny and Ortiz had an OPS better than .800 (and Youkilis was the only other one above .740) against southpaws (good news for Pettitte and Igawa).

The Yankees have a much more balanced lineup. I took last year's splits for the starting 9 for both teams, and 5 of the 9 Yankees were above .800 versus lefties last season, with 2 of them over 1.000 (Manny was the only Red Sox player over 1.000). While 3 of the Red Sox were below .700 against lefties, only Matsui (in 53 at bats vs. southpaws) was under .700 of the Yankees.

Against right handed pitchers, Mientkewiecz was the worst Yankee against righthanded pitching at .764. The next lowest Yankee vs. rightis was Johnny Damon at .832. 5 Red Sox broke the .800 level against righties. 5 Yankees topped .900 against them.

One of the people who is supposed to help the Red Sox when it comes to lefties is Wily Mo Pena. Historically he's been much stronger against southpaws, but not last season. Last year he hit just one home run and had a .660 OPS versus lefties. I think having JD Drew as the #5 hitter isn't very good since he had only a .716 OPS and 3 home runs versus lefties, and that probably won't get any better in Fenway. That means late in games you bring in a lefty and hope for the best against Ortiz, walk Manny and either get to face JD Drew or have the Red Sox replace their #5 hitter.

I think Julio Lugo is a bit overrated as an offensive player. however I think his #'s will significantly rise this year. He's a career .340 OBP, .402 SLG, and I would expect those or a tiny bit lower numbers on the road. However, he'll have a career year slugging percentage wise and home run wise, as he is a player who I think will have gaudy home numbers. Look for him to really take advange of Fenway Park.

If you go position by position, 5 Yankees were better against both righties and lefties. 2 positions, first base, and rightfield were split. Two positions, DH and leftield, the Red Sox had higher versus both righties and lefites. Ironically, the two Yankees to have an OPS over 1.000 versus righties were the leftfielder and DH, but Matsui's numbers and Giambi's still came up short.

The Red Sox bullpen looks like a disaster waiting to happen. Right now the relief pitchers healthy enough to compete for roles in the Red Sox bullpen are getting hit hard in the Grapefruit League.

I don't doubt that the Yankees will outhit the Red Sox, and I don't doubt that the Yankees will have a stronger bullpen. This leaves the Red Sox starting rotation to try and compete.

This means two guys over 40, 2 guys who haven't started a big league game in the major leagues, and 1 guy with an ERA over 5 last season.

Okay, that was a harsh way of putting it, and if I didn't think it would turn out okay, I would have them in 4th place.

I believe Schilling has enough left in the tank. I think he'll have a fine year. He's obviously an injury risk like so many others in the league. Matsuzaka, I'm still undecided on. I think he'll start well. But it's just so hard to say coming from facing Japanese lineups to the loaded AL East. I do think he'll pitch well at Fenway, and be an above average pitcher. I'm just not sure how above average.

Jon Paplebon is an interesting case as well. As a closer you get to use just your best pitch when it's as good as his. However, one not only has to ask how good will his other pitches be, but how good that pitch will be in the 6th or 7th inning, when lineups are seeing him for the 3rd or 4th time, and he may have lost a mile per hour or 2.

While Paplebon had 5 saves against both the Orioles and Blue Jays last season, and 6 against the D-Rays, he had only 1 save (and one blown save) against the Yankees. The Yankees haven't faced him much. Johnny Damon is the only Yankee to have gotten more than 2 at bats against him last season (Jeter had 3 plate appearances, which ncluded a hit and a walk, and actually Melky was best against him with a walk and a double in 2 plate appearances).

How will he do when he faces this lineup 6 or 7 times plate appearances in the course of 2 weeks. Or the other lineups in this division. I think Papelbon will be an above average starter since he does throw the fastball so hard and locates it so well. But I'm really not sure how well he'll do as a starter. It's just very different than the closer role.

I do think Papelbon will have some dominating performances, but I also think he's going to have some struggles. If the struggles come early enough in the season, the question will be non-stop about a return to the bullpen.

We'll see if Beckett bounces back from last season. I'm not sure. Was it the transition to the AL East or the transition to high pressure Boston? I think he'll be a bit better than last season.

Wakefield is Wakefield. Not bad at all for a #$ starter.

If the Red Sox are going to make a playoff run, they are going to have to do something about their bullpen. The Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays all have significantly better bullpens than the Red Sox, and all three teams can hit. Meaning, while the Red Sox were safe late in games last year, and Ortiz able to get them victories from defeat, they may lose a lot of games late this upcoming season, ruining starts and stats of their rotation.

Look for somebody in (maybe Lester) or out of the organization to help this current roster if they are to make the playoffs.


3rd Place - Baltimore Orioles

I tried this last season and it didn't work at all. And what's worse, I'm trying it for the same reason, Leo Mazzone. I'm using the WBC as my scapegoat. Most WBC pitchers struggled the first half of last season, and all the Orioles pitchers were there, and even worse not working with Leo during that time.

First of all, the Orioles have a surprisingly deep lineup. While Miguel Tejada may be the only scary hitter in the lineup, they have an awful lot of guys who can handle that bat. They have Ramon Hernadez behind the plate, and Millar, Roberts, and Mora filling out the rest of the infield. Jay Gibbobs, Corey Patterson, and Nick Markakis (who was unreal in July and August last year), make up the outfield with Huff at DH. Patterson isn't a good hitter, but in the #9 spot that's not bad. Markakis had a miserable September (yet still had an .896 OPS after the All-Star break). His spring training has been really good, so I'll take September as a bad month and think his July and August were the beginning of a very good career.

While their backup catcher can't hit at all (of course in the AL East there isn't a decent hitting backup catcher amongst the teams), they have decent backups in the infield and outfield with Chris Gomez and Jay Payton. Other than Ramon Hernandez and Miguel Tejada, they can afford an injury to anybody else in their lineup without too much stress.

Eric Bedard leads their rotation, and he could turn into a legitimate ace.

However, it's Daniel Cabrera who I think is in for a monster season. And I base this off of 5 spring training innings.

I know that might sound rediculous, but in those 5 innings he hasn't walked anybody. And while Warren, I don't know how much you've seen him pitch, I'm sure Sully that you have. His stuff is electric. I was so frustrated watching him against the Yankees one time last year where they had so many people on base against him and couldn't do anything to get them home.

If Mazzone can work the walks out of him, he could very quickly be one of the best starters in all of baseball. If I were doing a fantasy baseball team, this is the guy I'd try to get on my team right now.

I'm not very high on Adam Loewen, who is their #3. Steve Trachsel is #4, and I've always seen him as a guy who knows how to pitch, but he may face a cruel reality in the AL East. Jaret Wright is a good #5. He was 11-7 with a 4.49 ERA last year.

The Orioles have a good bullpen, however, if Cabrera doesn't get his walks under control, they will be overworked in a heartbeat. I don't envision Loewen getting to the 7th inning too often and we know Trachsel and Wright won't. So that leaves only Bedard unless Cabrera gets his pitch count down.

With Chris Ray as the closer, Baez setting up, along with Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker, this team can finish games if the starters can get them the lead.

This is a professional hitting team, that should be strong, with guys like Mora, Roberts, and even Patterson, at scratching out runs in close games, and with a strong bullpen and if Mazzone could work his magic, the Orioles could easily be a National League playoff contender.

4th Place - Toronto Blue Jays

If I said I have a team with one of baseball's few legitimate aces, a pretty good #2 starter, a top closer, and a very good lineup, in the National League I'd call it a playoff team, in the AL East I call them the 4th place Toronto Blue Jays.

While their lineup is very good, with Greg Zaun and Royce Clayton they do have a couple of easy outs. I think Alex Rios and Reed Johnson played over their heads last season. I was shocked by Frank Thomas' 2006 season, and would mark him down, but he is playing in a better ballpark for hitters. He's not the type of player who keeps himself in stellar shape though, so I still think he'll have a bit of a drop off.

The rotation starts out great with Roy Halladay. I'm not a big AJ Burnett fan, but when he was healthy he did adjust well to life in the AL East. Gustavo Chacin is the #3 starter. I like his stuff and I think he could be a legitimate #3 guy, but he did have an ERA over 5 last season.

Then it gets ugly. The chances of either John Thompson or Tomo Ohka having an ERA under 5 I think is slim at best. Both of them had ERA's of 4.82 in the National League last season, and I strongly believe will get buried in the AL East. Expect the Blue Jays to go through a lot of different people at the back end of their rotation next season, and that is why I think they will end up in 4th place in this tough division.

BJ Ryan leads the bullpen, but he doesn't have much to lead. Bradon League had a good 2006. But the best of the bullpen is just thrown together.

5th Place - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
I think the D-Rays are in stall for a very rough year. Possibly a 100-loss season. The Rays do have some of baseball's best young hitters, and they also have a few spots in their lineup that probably won't hit at all. Thier young hitters will probably try to do too much and some will struggle (epsecially BJ Upton in the super reserve roll).

Thier pitching is hideous. They have Scott Kazmir (which scares me a bit for opening day), but the fact that Casey Fossum has a strong hold on the #2 spot in their rotation, tells you all you need to know about their rotation.

Fortunately, if the Yankees do fall behind the D-Rays on opening day, their chances of catching up late are phenomanal. The Red Sox do not have the worst bullpen in the AL East. The D-Rays will lose so many games late, it actually will be pretty funny (unless you're one of the 846 Devil Ray fans). Seth McClung, yes the one with an ERA well over 6 last year, went to Spring Training as the leading candidate for the closer role. Not suprisingly he may lose it before the Spring is out.

Thier bullpen is horrible and that will play with the confidence of this young team, especially considering the division it is in.

There you have it, the AL East. That was exhausting. Only 7 parts to go.

My analysis begins....

Today I will begin going through all the teams, the rosters, the player-movement and last year's stats as well as career paths, so I can make my 2007 predictions.

For the past 3 years, and this one will be no different, this takes a lot of work and research, due to my lifestyle over this time of living on a ship and not following life outside the AL East as much as I'd like too. So whoever had breakout years in the NL West, I may be a bit behind with and the research I will be starting today will catch me up.

There are a few things that I'm sure of going in;

1) I will predict the Yankees to win the AL East and the World Series.

2) I will find a way to rationalize the Giants winning more games than the Athletics.

3) I will predict Johan Santana to win the AL Cy Young Award.

4) One of my big "philosophies" going into my picks will be that players going from the NL to the AL will do worse, and players going from the AL to the NL will improve.

Some things I'm not sure of going into my analysis:

1) What to think about Roger Clemens, and how to factor him into predictions.

2) Who I will predict to win the National League Pennant.

3) What to think of Matsuzaka and Igawa, especially considering the hitting prowess of the AL East.

4) Who will win the other 5 divisions.

The process will begin today. I don't know when I'll have it done (and if I will do it in parts or one fell swoop), but I do know it will be done no later than April 1st.

Todd Helton

First, since Ross has apparently forgotten his log-in, here's what he has to say about the Todd Helton to the Red Sox rumors:

Oh my god do I hope the Red Sox pull off this trade for Todd Helton. He's 33 years old (he'll be 39 at the end of his contract), makes $16 million a year for the next 6 seasons. His numbers are already declining with only a .781 OPS on the road last season and .882 over the past 3 seasons (which is very good, but not what you'd pay for a $16 million a year first baseman). And at his age, the decline in numbers is more probably a trend and not an abberration.

He only hit 15 home runs last year and would be going to a ballpark that is not condusive to lefties not named David Ortiz for hitting home runs.

He'd be going from pressureless baseball of his entire career to Boston, where if he gets off to a slow start they will be jumping all over the "inflated Colorado numbers" bandwagon. I'm not sure his numbers would be any better than Mike Lowell's were last year, and they'd be giving up prospects with him. The $ difference, the years. Wow, I hope the Red Sox do this.

Well, I agree that on its face it's a terrible deal. And I don't think that the Sox would do the version proposed/reported by Rosenthal (Hansen/Ellsbury/others). If they do, then they've learned nothing from last season.

However, if it's something along the lines of Helton for Clement/Lowell/prospect with Colorado picking up a significant portion of the money (as speculated in the original column and by Buster Olney), then it may not be that bad. Helton's contract breaks down like this:

2007: $16.6M
2008: $16.6M
2009: $16.6M
2010: $16.6M
2011: $19.1M
2012: $4.6M buyout

So if they dumped Clement and Lowell (and put Youkilis back at 3B), then it's a money wash this year (actually, the Red Sox would save money). After this year, obviously, it becomes an albatross, and it makes the lineup very lefty-heavy in the middle (Ortiz, Drew, Helton). Long-term, unless the contract is HEAVILY subsidized, it's a bad deal.

I tend to believe the version that the Boston Herald is reporting - that Colorado is driving the negotiations and pursuing Boston as a suitor for Helton. If they think they're getting a boatload of talent back for him, they're mistaken - if that's what they want, they should have tried to trade him a year or two ago. They have to expect to pay a lot of money and/or take back a lot of bad contracts, which, surprisingly, the Red Sox don't really have.

Here's what I would ask, if I were the Sox (and this assumes that they even want him in the first place, and that they think he's not totally done). I'd take Helton for Lowell/Clement/Tavarez, and a less than top prospect. I'd also tell Colorado that they didn't have to pay any money this year. They would, however, have to kick in $4.6 million each year from 2008 through 2010, then $7.1 in 2011, making the contract $12 mil a year after 2007. They'd also have to pay the buyout for 2012, making the total cash payout $25.5M, and making the Sox' commitment $16.6M this year and $12M per from '08-'11. That's not so bad in this market (if he could be an .825-.875 OPS-type for the next four years or so), especially since the Sox don't have too many corner prospects expected to be ready anytime soon. Plus, the savings for 2007 could go towards Clemens, even though that would make me suicidal.

However, I'm not convinced that Helton isn't totally cooked, so I'd be inclined to let the Rockies continue to choke on their mistake, and hope that another AL team like Anaheim makes a bad deal for him instead. Deep down, I think this is what the Red Sox will do, but they've surprised me before by overpaying, so nothing would shock me.

UPDATE: Since I wrote this all up, I saw the new version being reported on ESPN.com, which says the deal (Lowell/Tavarez/young relievers) is pretty close, and that the Rockies would pick up half of Helton's contract. That's interesting, but I hope they don't have to give up Delcarmen.

The First Unanimous Hall of Famer

Well, it looks like it won't be Roger Clemens. In an interview with Maury Brown, Ken Rosenthal says:

As of this moment—and I reserve the right to change my mind on a question that will not be relevant for at least five years—I will not vote for Clemens on the first ballot. I will not vote for any player from this era first-ballot, though I made exceptions for Ripken and Gwynn and probably will make them for certain others; Glavine and Maddux come to mind.

My feeling is this: We don’t know who did what. We don’t know the impact that performance enhancers had on the game. Therefore, I’m uncomfortable equating the greats from this era with the greats of the pre-steroids past. A first-ballot snub is one way to draw that distinction. Is it unfair to implicate everyone that way? Perhaps. But the players were members of a union that could have agreed to testing or unilaterally adopted it themselves if they did not trust the owners. Instead, they were completely dismissive of the issue.

What will I do with these guys after the first ballot? I have no idea.

One thing people should understand: This is a Hall of Fame vote, not a court verdict. Voters don’t need evidence or proof to render their decisions. We are instructed to consider character, integrity and sportsmanship, creating wide latitude for subjectivity.

I’m not sure what the proper answer is. I’m not sure there is a proper answer. I respect others who disagree with me. The topic is so complex, virtually every point of view is valid. Basically, I will vote my conscience, using the information and perspective that is available to me at the time.

Personally, I think not voting for McGwire is too far, given that he never tested positive, but this a lot worse. I think there's a decent chance Clemens used steroids, but other than pitching well at an old age, there's really no proof. (Unless Rosenthal does know something but is keeping quiet about it).

That being said, since it's Clemens, I'm okay with it.

Trot Nixon

I try not to get sentimental about baseball moves, because a lot of times it's pretty cut and dry - it's either a good move or a bad move for your team, and the numbers bear that out. But Trot Nixon is a different story. He's the first Red Sox player I remember following from the first day of his career, going through the ups and downs, cheering a little harder for him because he seemed like a regular guy who was really one of us, even though he grew up in North Carolina.

So I'm taking the news that he signed with the Indians pretty hard. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy for him. Cleveland has just as good a chance as anyone in the tough AL Central to make the playoffs this year, and as strong as that division is, he should have a lot of tense, playoff-type atmosphere games against the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers. I'm not saying it will be the same as playing at Fenway, especially against the Yankees, but it should be exciting.

Thanks, Trot. Thanks for that bases-loaded double in Game Four. Thanks for standing up to the Devil Rays and tossing your bat at Ryan Rupe. Thanks for your post-wild-card-clinching celebratory Stone Cold Steve Austin impersonation in the Sox locker room in 2003. And most of all, thank you for the graduation night, game-winning, ninth-inning homer off of Clemens in 2000, sealing the shutout win for Pedro. Not only did I win my bet with Andy Osborne, but my mom, step-dad, and half-brother were there watching the game with Ross' whole family. That was a pretty sweet day.

Good luck in Cleveland. I'll do everything I can to be at Fenway on May 28 to give you the standing O you deserve.

Clemens/Pettitte respond

According to mlb.com.

Pettitte comes right out and says "I've never used any drugs to enhance my performance on a baseball field before." Time will tell if he comes out looking like Raffy Palmiero.

Clemens, on the other hand, has been taking lessons at the Barry Bonds school of denial:

Grimsley never worked out with myself or Andy at any point. I don't know where that's coming from. When it's going to take a serious turn for me is when one of my sponsors pull out, then somebody's going to be responsible for that. Then my lawyers will take over from there.

So, he never worked out with you... but did you do steroids? Feel free to answer the accusation, Rog. And I'm glad that, as always, this is all about money for Clemens. As soon as this affects his wallet, he'll sue you, damnit.