The World Series

I was on Sons of Sam Horn reading the World Series preview thread, and a few people are actually trying to convince the general populace that the Cardinals can win this series. As a quick retort, someone posted their respective interleague records (St. Louis was 5-10, and Detroit was 15-3, including 3-0 against the Cardinals). I stopped reading there because I realized that the Cardinals played 3 fewer games than the Tigers.

For the hell of it, I checked the standings to see how many games the Astros played against the American League. Sure enough, they played the full 18, going 7-11 (the Astros were actually the only team in their division that didn't play only 15 interleague games). This is clearly bogus. These teams, that only finished a game and a half apart, played different schedules.

Let's assume that the Cards played those additional 3 interleague games and went 1-2 (a .333 winning percentage, the same as their actual 5-10 interleague record). Their winning percentage for their remaining NL schedule was .534; if we subtracted any random three games off of their schedule to make room for the other three interleague games, chances are we'd be subtracting two wins and one loss. Taking away a 2-1 and adding in a 1-2 is a net loss of one game in the standings, which leaves the Cardinals only a half-game ahead of Houston, which would have required them to play their make-up game against the Giants.

Now, maybe they lose that game and have to play a one-game playoff with Houston for the Central Division title and a playoff spot. Or maybe they win that game and win the division anyway, but as a result of the extra game at the end of the season, their pitching would have been in worse shape going into the first round against the Padres, so maybe they don't end up winning that series. Or maybe they win it in five games and their pitching is worse off for the Mets series and they lose that one.

The point is, the Cardinals, with the 13th best record in the majors this year, are incredibly lucky to be in the World Series. From their interleague schedule, to the general weakness of the NL, to the extreme weakness of their division, to drawing the short-handed Mets in the NLCS, they've caught a break at every turn. The thought that they could hang with the Tigers, or even with a team like the Angels or Blue Jays, for seven games is downright crazy.

Based on the fact that the Tigers' record is much better than that of the Cardinals and that the AL has swept the last two World Series (including the 105-win Cardinal team of two years ago), I was already set to pick a Tigers sweep. Now, the extreme strength of the AL compared to the NL and the fact that the Cardinals really shouldn't be here is enough to hammer the point home. Tigers in four.

The ALCS

I haven't looked forward to a non-Red Sox ALCS this much since 1997. This series has everything: new blood (six different teams have made the ALCS in the last three years - this is a good thing), hungry fans on both sides, good pitching, fresh faces, old faces in new places, and two stadiums that I've seen in person. As Pete Carroll so eloquently put it, I'm jacked and pumped.

So which team gets to advance and sweep the NL champ in the World Series? The "experts" are saying that it could go either way, and it is a very fascinating match-up. Both teams have ridden their pitching this far, both staffs were great in the first round, and both will face lineups in this series very similar to the team they just vanquished.

The A's lineup is a lot like the Yankees' with less power: they take a ton of pitches, work the count, and wear down starters. The Tigers pitchers were able to take advantage of that by throwing a ridiculous amount of early strikes, getting ahead in the count, and then making them chase pitches they weren't looking for. Rogers and Bonderman were especially phenomenal in their starts, but you have to expect a little bit of a drop off their next time around.

The Tigers lineup likes to be aggressive and hack, even more so than the Twins. In the Division Series, the Twins hitters made Barry Zito look great in game one by swinging at everything and getting themselves out, and in the other two games they popped up more first pitches than Willie Mays Hayes. You have to think that the A's pitchers can keep it up, but even if the Tigers do make solid contact like they did against the Yanks, Oakland's defense is better than New York's by just about every measure available, and more of those balls in play will be turned into outs.

I think the A's are more likely to be able to get the Tiger hitters to chase than the Tigers are to get ahead of the A's hitters, which gives a distinct advantage to Oak-town. Throw in the Frank Thomas sticking it to the White Sox factor and I like the A's to take the series in six. And even if it goes seven, the Tigers will throw Kenny Rogers on the road in that game. I know he just tossed a playoff gem, but I still don't like those odds.

(Note: this means you should all bet the mortgage on the Tigers)

More Revisited Predictions

Well, I might as well rehash mine, which were far less successful than Warren's.

MVP: A-Rod & Pujols. Obviously way off on A-Rod, and Pujols was and still is a no-brainer. I remember that Ross gave us crap for "really reaching" by picking Pujols. We'll have to revisit his picks later.

Cy Young: Halladay & Peavy. Halladay is the consensus #2 in the AL behind Johan Santana, so I wasn't that far off. Peavy... ugh. I don't know what happened to him, but I was definitely drinking the Baseball Prospectus Kool-Aid when I made that pick. It's still a defensible pick, unlike...

Rookie: Ian Kinsler & Prince Fielder. I wanted to pick Papelbon, but I didn't want to jinx him. So I went with the hitter, thinking that he'd be more of a sure thing than a young pitcher, and Kinsler was the one who went out and got injured. Fielder's candidacy fell apart when he disappeared in August and September, once Rickie Weeks and Carlos Lee weren't in the lineup anymore. But he did have a pretty good year.

Manager: Joe Torre & Ned Yost. Well, Torre actually did a pretty good job in the regular season, but now he might get canned after the real manager of the year's team destroyed his in four games. Warren already talked about Yost - next year, when the Brewers are closer to being legit, I'll probably pick him again.

A-Rod, Peavy, Kinsler, and Yost were mighty whiffs. Pujols, Halladay, and Torre, and maybe even Fielder, will finish in the top three in the real voting, so I guess I can't moan too much about them. Socially acceptable job on my part.

Preseason Predictions: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

I'll start with my award predictions:

The Good
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
AL Rookie: Justin Verlander

These three could all happen.

The Bad:
AL Cy Young: Rich Harden
NL Manager: Ned Yost

I don't feel too bad about these - Harden got hurt (although that was forseeable), and Yost's Brewers were halfway decent. I thought they'd be closer to the top in a bad division, but it's didn't quite work out.

The Ugly:
AL Manager: Eric Wedge
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL Rookie: Anthony Reyes

A-Rod of course had a decent season in some ways, but he clearly won't be getting any MVP votes. Wedge managed a very underachieving team for the second year in a row, although that may not stop me from picking them to win the division next year. Reyes never did well at the major league level, although I think he still had a chance to be a good player. The list of my RoY picks who didn't have a great first season but turned out pretty good is a long one (Crede, Ensberg, etc.)

So I could go 3 for 8 - I'll take a .375 average.

Playoff Predictions

ALDS: Tigers vs. Yankees

What advantages do the Tigers have over the Yankees?

1. Defense
2. Middle relief
3. Starting pitching depth

The Tigers defense has probably been the best in baseball, and has made all those pitchers look good. The Tigers do have a nice set of arms in the bullpen, even if their closer isn't all that great. And I'd trust Jeremy Bonderman over Jaret Wright any day, even if Wright had a pretty decent season.

The Yankees real weakness is going to be the middle innings - with Rivera supposedly only pitching an inning per game, that leaves a lot of innings in the hands of fairly untrustworthy relievers, particular when Wright starts.

I wouldn't go as far as some to say that the Tigers have no chance, since anything can happen in a short series. But I wouldn't bet on it. Yankees in 4.

ALDS: Twins vs. A's

As usual, the two teams I'd most like to root for in the AL face each other in the first round. The Twins have become a very popular pick, but I'll defend the A's as usual. I'm usually not a fan of first-half, second-half splits, since I think they're often just noise, but when there's an injury involved, I think they can be real meaningful. Esteban Loaiza was hideous at the beginning of the season, but he's gained somewhere in the range of 5-8 MPH on his fastball since then, and he was pretty decent in the second half (8-4, 4.01).

Rich Harden is the key here - with him at full strength, they have perhaps the best starter among the AL playoff teams outside of Santana. No team can match up with Zito at #2, Haren at #3 and Loaiza at #4, even the Tigers.

The question with the A's, of course, is their offense. But even with two MVP candidates in their lineup the Twins only outscored the A's by 30 runs on the year. And even with Minnesota's second-half surge, the A's outscored them after the All-Star break.

It all comes down to Santana's starts. And while Santana is clearly the best pitcher in baseball, the A's get to counter with Zito, no slouch himself. I think the A's steal one of the Santana/Zito matchups. A's in 4.

NLDS: Cardinals vs. Padres

No healthy Edmonds. No good starters after Carpenter. No closer. No offense from half the lineup. No wins. Padres in 3.

NLDS: Dodgers vs. Mets

The Mets aren't looking so hot right now, and the Dodgers have played well recently. This reminds me a bit too much of 1988, but the Dodgers don't have Orel Hershiser this time. Mets in 5.

ALCS: A's vs. Yankees

Unlike their matchup with the Tigers, I think the A's pitchers have a decent shot of, well, not stopping the Yankees lineup, but at least minimizing their destruction. It's an interesting matchup, because the Yankees have such obvious strengths and weaknesses, and the A's are much more balanced (fewer holes, but fewer stars). It's time for the A's to put their playoff problems behind them. A's in 7.

NLCS: Padres vs. Mets

The Mets need to save Fox from an Oakland/San Diego World Series. Mets in 5.

WS: Mets vs. A's

A rematch of the 1973 Series, but this time the Mets are actually good. But I'll stick with my preseason prediction, and try not to jinx my team. A's in 6.

Handicapping the AL

Two things have been established this weekend. One, the Red Sox are not making the playoffs. And two, the Yankees are the team to beat in the American League. I don't really see any way that another team in the AL can beat them. For all of the "AL is head-and-shoulders better than the NL" talk (which is all true), there are some seriously flawed teams competing for the playoffs this year in the Junior Circuit.

Let's start with the Red Sox. Here are their assets: a lethal 3-4 combination in the batting order, a certifiable if aging ace in the rotation, and the best young closer since... I don't even know when. That's it. That's the list. The rest of their pitchers, and this is no exaggeration, are question marks at best, due to age, injury, inexperience, shoddy track records... you name it. The manager is a moron, their three longest-tenured players are on the DL, they can't beat the Yankees or the Blue Jays (who they have 13 more combined games against), Coco freaking Crisp is leading off, and management has all but come out and say "we're not playing for this year." Whether or not that's wise is another story, but the point is, you can stick a fork in them. They're done.

The AL West will likely send only their division champion to the playoffs, but it's gotten to be a pretty interesting division. Sure, the A's have opened up a decent lead (4.5 games over Anaheim, 5.5 over Texas), but Huston Street just went on the DL, the Rangers added Carlos Lee, and Anaheim has better pitching than any of them. The A's play each team six more times down the stretch, so there's plenty of time for either team to make a run, but the only one of these teams really built for October is the Angels. Texas has no pitching, so they're out right away. Oakland could sport a scary rotation if Harden comes back, but that's hardly a given, and the Street injury only makes them more vulnerable. Anaheim, with the Weaver-Lackey-Santana-Escobar foursome (and of course, Vlad) could make some noise, but it's hard to tell how Weaver will hold up into October, so I'm taking the A's.

Which brings us to the Tigers. Look, I think they're for real, as far as the regular season goes. They should win 100 games easily and win their division, which is the best in baseball. They're a great story. But the fact is that they're leaning on Justin Verlander to play the Schilling to Bonderman's Johnson, and I just don't see it. His highest innings pitched total for a single season is 130, and he's at 140 already this year and we're not even into September. I hope he holds up, but if he doesn't, you're suddenly leaning on Kenny Rogers to be your playoff stopper. Warren can tell you how well that works. Add to that the fact that an already free-swinging lineup just added Neifi "thanks for extending my career, Dusty" Perez as their everyday second baseman, and I think this team is in trouble. Oakland or Anaheim would eat them up in the first round, and we just saw what Texas can do to them. Leyland or not, I'll pass.

As for the wild card, it's either the White Sox or the Twins, most likely the White Sox with Liriano a question mark the rest of the way. Chicago's 3-4-5-6 is amazing, of course, but their pitching has hit a wall this year. Maybe it was all of those innings last year, maybe they just caught lightning in a bottle, but these aren't the same guys that stormed through last October. The way it stands now, they'd face the Yankees in the first round, and that lineup (which would probably at least have Matsui back by then) would chew right through their rotation. Their season is eerily similar to the 2005 Red Sox, still good enough to win 95 games and make the playoffs a year after ending the drought, but there's just something missing, and they'll probably get swept in the first round. Not good times.

I'll just say this about the Twins: if Liriano does come back and they do make the playoffs, they would scare the bejeesus out of me. With Santana-Liriano-Radke getting the ball to Nathan, that's the only team that could slow down the Yankee offense (unless the A's get Harden back), and even then Gardenhire might screw it up. Without Liriano, though, I don't think they even make it, which is too bad.

So my revised predictions on August 21 would look something like this: Yankees over White Sox 3-0, A's over Tigers 3-1, Yankees over A's 4-2, Yankees over Dodgers (or someone else, if Warren can convince me with a "Handicapping the NL" post) 4-0. I will now drink a bottle of anti-freeze.

Worst Predictions....Ever

I should be paid by teams to not make predictions about their players:

Coco Crisp will have a better AVG, OBP, SLG and more R, RBI, HR and SB than Johnny Damon.

Sully, you're welcome for guaranteeing his injury.

Mark Teixeira will lead the AL in home runs and RBI

David Ortiz is leading the league with 31 homers - Texieria has 9.

Alfonso Soriano will stay with the Nationals in left field, have a horrible first half, and the Nationals will keep him in order to get free agent compensation.

Hmm - close.