Quick thoughts on Santana Trade as my class is taking a Quiz

Big Winner: The Mets

The prospects they gave up, I'd be surprised if any of them make an all-star team. The Mets needed this. Clearly there is a big risk involved, as signing a pitcher for (most likely) 7 years at that kind of money is a dangerous proposition, but it had to be done.

Assuming the end of last season was just a fluke for Santana (probably was) and he hasn't fallen off at all, he clearly is the front runner already for the Cy Young Award. Going to the NL should only make him better. Pitching in Shea should only make him better. The Mets have, once again, made themselves into preseason favorites, and didn't even give up Martinez to do it. If they had to give up those 4, and Martinez, I think they still should have done it.


Winners, but just by a little bit: Yankees and Red Sox

Neither of them wanted to make the deal. I was having painful thoughts about giving up Hughes and I really like Melky. I've been dreaming of a Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy trio with Wang. Look at what the run the Braves had starting it with 3 young pitchers, and the Yankees will always have better hitting than those Braves teams did.

The Yankees and Red Sox are both spending a lot of money on the farm systems. They are both trying to build that way, and $20+ million per season is a lot of farm system.


Big Loser: The Twins

I don't believe the Yankees and Red Sox were never really in it. I think the Twins wanted the best NL offer possible. I think they were having nightmares about facing Santana for many years to come. I truly believe they did not take the best deal they could have gotten, just to get him out of the American League. The Twins got ripped off for the best pitcher in baseball.

Big Week for New York

Let's hope that this is just the first big sports event for New York this week. It's a fair amount of the Mets' farm system for essentially one season (I know they'll only make the deal if they sign him to an extension, but they'll be paying the going rate for those years). Still, they didn't give up Fernando Martinez, who is hopefully not the next Alex Escobar. This makes me wonder if neither the Yankees or Red Sox were really in this, and both teams were just trying to keep Santana away from the other. On the surface, the Mets' package doesn't look as good as the ones the Yankees and Red Sox offered.

Kevin Mulvey always reminded be of "mulva" from Seinfeld, so I'm happy to get rid of him...

I like Hank

I like Hank Steinbrenner and his blunt take it or leave it way (even if there is a little wiggle room if you come back begging like ARod did). I like that he now gave the Twins a deadline and put the pressure on. With Johan Santana doing it too, it makes it more interesting if he really said he refuses to be traded during the season.

It is very unlikely that with an end of the first round pick and sandwich pick that they would get Hughes/Cabrera quality from them.

The rumors are that the Yankees have said the 3rd prospect will not be Chamberalain, Kennedy, Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, Alan Horne, or Dellin Betances.

A lot of rumors say Alberto Gonzalez, the shortstop the Yankees got in the Randy Johnson deal could be the final peice. If the Red Sox are only including 1 of their "big 3", I think the Yankees have the edge.

Yankees in Pursuit of Free Agents

Clearly the Yankees won't be pursuing any free agent hitters, unless Melky Cabrera is traded, not starting players anyway. I haven't heard them being interested in any of the starting pitchers on the Free Agent market, and everyone is only thinking about Johan Santana here anyway (I can't walk down the hallway at work without somebody asking me about Santana).

The Yankee bullpen will look a lot different next season. I'm hoping the Yankees mainly go with young arms from the system, like Ohlendorf, Humberto Sanchez (may not be ready until May), Darrell Rasner, Jeff Karstens, and the like. However, there is one free agent reliever that interests me, and that's Eddie Guardardo. I haven't heard any rumors about him and the Yankees.

The fact is that he's a lefty, and had his $3.5 million option turned down, so he's inexpensive, especially at age 37 coming off surgery. He pitched 13.2 innings last season after surgery to a 7.24 ERA. However, his last 7 innings he gave up just 2 hits, no runs, and hit 94 on the radar gun.

There's a chance he's done and you throw $3 million away for the season. But his upside is as good as any free agent reliever and if he is back, it's an amazing bargain. I want Everyday Eddie.

My Thoughts

1) How did the Cardinals ever win the World Series?

2) Joe Girardi was my first choice. Followed by Tony Pena, Larry Bowa, and Buck Showalter. Don Mattingly was not. I am one of the believers that you follow a calm players' manager with a fiery one and vice-versa. Don Mattingly will probably be just like Joe Torre, but with less experience.

3) They handled the Joe Torre thing the exact way I expected them too. People say the got bad publicity by handling it "wrong", but they don't realize they would have gotten much worse publicity if they had just fired him. The fact was they didn't want him back and they came up with the best offer that they knew he'd still turn down. It would have been much worse to fire one of if not the most popular manager in the team's history. Letting him make the decision to walk away (even if it was mostly forced) was the way to go.

4) I'm definitely hoping jinxes are real with the departure of Don Mattingly. In the last 27 years Don Mattingly was in the Yankee orginzation for 18 of those seasons. Those 18 seasons the Yankees did not go to a World Series, even once. In the other 9 seasons the Yankees went to the World Series 7 times. 7 of the last 9 and 10 of the last 14 seasons without Don Mattingly the Yankees went to the World Series.

Since 1921, the Yankees have been in the World Series 57% of the time when Don Mattingly wasn't on the team as a player or coach. That's amazing.

5) ARod. I thought he was coming back. I assumed that when the Yankees talked to him they would convince him (with a huge deal to help) to stay. The Yankees were right, he would have. Boras knew it too. That's why Boras never let the Yankees talk with him.

6) I didn't mind watching Clemens in amazement after he left the Yankees. I never felt slighted with it. That won't be true with ARod.

7) How bad will ARod look if the Yankees do win the World Series next year? People may notice the Mattingly connection, but the talk will be ARod.

8) After the shock of the opt out was over, all I kept thinking was, that's a great salary slot for Johan Santana. I'm not expecting it this season (although I'm sure Cashman will call), but it's very rare that the best pitcher on the planet is a southpaw, and I can't imagine Santana's agent would let him sign anywhere (if there is a deadline deal somewhere else) without checking in on the Yankees' offer price.

9) You know Boras already has a deal in his pocket with another team that's $30 million a year, the questions are which team (probably the Angels) and can the Yankees proove it for tampering (probably not).

10) I would be shocked (and very upset) if Posada, Pettitte, or Rivera went anywhere. I wouldn't think the change to Girardi would not negatively impact their decision as Pettitte and Rivera finished 2-3 for the Cy Young the first year they pitched to him (their sophomore season) and Girardi mentored Posada.

11) Mattingly had to leave after Girardi got the job, as Girardi is younger than him. If Lou Piniella got the job, Mattingly could stay, and Mattingly could follow Torre to LA (especially with his son in their organization), and Torre's age means Mattingly would be his natural successor.

12) The Jitter Critters helped me a lot this year, as it allowed me to not pay attention too much to anything going on. And the kids loved the show on Saturday.

A Common Misconception

One of the topics that's talked about a lot these days in New York is how the Yankees have held onto their prospects recently and how it's paying dividends now with Wang, Cano, Cabrera, Hughues, and Chamberlain. They talk about how it's like 1995/96 when they held onto Jeter, Pettitte, Rivera, and Posada.

The one place there right is that it is a lot like 95/96 but not the way they mean. The only difference between those years and these compared to all the years in between is that the Yankees actually have prospects to hold onto.

Dating back to 1995, the following are the 20 biggest names the Yankees traded "prospects" for (so this does not include getting Clemens or ARod, or even Scott Brosius who they traded Kenny Rogers to get):

David Cone, David Justice, Cecil Fielder, Glenallen Hill, John Wetteland, Aaron Boone, Hideki Irabu, Chuck Knoblauch, Denny Neagle, Bobby Abreu, Cory Lidle, Tino Martinez, Jeff Nelson, Javier Vazquez, Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Shawn Chacon, Raul Mondesi, Mark WHolers, and Charlie Hayes.

Clearly, some of these people worked out very well for the Yankees, many did not.

Now, here are the prospects the Yankees gave up to get them:

Marty Janzen, Jason Jarvis, Mike Gordon, Matt Drews, Rickey Ledee, Jake Westbrook, Zach Day, Fernando Seguirnol, Marcus Thames, Drew Henson, Jackson Melian, Ben Ford, Oswaldo Mariena, Ruben Rivera, Rafael Medina, Eric Milton, Christian Guzman, Brian Buchanan, Brandon Claussen, Charlie Manning, Brian Reith, Ed Yarnall, CJ Henry, Matt Smith, John-Ford Griffin, Carlos Monostrios, Jesus Sanchez, Russ Davis, Sterling Hitchcock, Nick Johnson, Brad Halsey, Juan Rivera,, Dioner Navarro, Randy Choate, Yehncy Brezoban, Brandon Wheedon, Eduardo Sierra, Ramon Ramirez, Scott Wiggins, Ricardo Aramboles, Chris Singleton, and Alberto Castillo.

There are a few decent names there. But not Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Pettitte, Soriano, Wang, Cano, or Cabrera. Or guys like Hughes or Chamberlain who may be joining that group in performance. There was nobody in that group that you say now, wow, if only we didn't trade that guy, we'd be so much better off. This isn't trading Scott Kazmir or letting Johan Santana go in the Rule V draft, or having a position glut so you trade Travis Hafner for Einar Diaz. Nobody looks back to these trades with regret.

They only traded the Hensons and Ruben Riveras when they realized it wasn't going to happen for them, or Nick Johnson when he was evidently extremely injury-prone. The Yankee philosophy of trading prospects hasn't changed at all over the years since Gene Michael took over in the early 90s. The only difference between now and the last 10 years is that the Yankees have made finding the best prospects a priority again.

Off-Season Deal

Ian Kennedy has clearly been climbing the prospect charts this year. The Yankees turned down the option of sending him to the Rangers for Gagne (thank God). The 22-year, 2006 1st round pick, just threw another 6-innings of 2-hit, no walk, 6 K ball at AAA. He has a 1.86 ERA on the season between A, AA, and AAA ball, and in AAA he has an identical 1.86 ERA.

The fact that he's pitching this well, was a first round pick, and chosen before Joba Chamberlain (and has better stats this year than Chamberlain), has to have him climbing people's charts.

Side Note: Chamberlain was a compensatory sandwich pick. He makes the Tom Gordon-era feel so much better.

The Yankees have slapped the label "untouchable" on Kennedy. Giving that label now to four of their prospects, him, Tabata, Chamberlain, and Hughes. I like Kennedy a lot, and I like Tabata a lot. However, if Johan Santana is available this off-season, if the Yankees could put a package together around those two, they could have a legitimate chance of getting Santana, if the Twins decide to deal him.

I have split feelings on this of course.
Cons:
1- I really like both Tabata and Kennedy
2- Tabata and Kennedy won't make real money for so many years still
3- Santana is a pitcher who you will be giving a long-term deal for over $20 million a year too, that can't seem like a good idea

Pros:
1- Tabata and Kennedy are prospects, most prospects fail.
2- Santana is a lefty. A lefty going from the Metrodome to Yankee Stadium.
3- Santana with Yankee run support, throwing games at Yankee Stadium could win an awful lot of games
4- Going into spring training the Yankees would have Santana, Wang, Petttitte, Mussina, Hughes, and Chamberlain, that's 6 guys, so the fact that they don't have Kennedy, not a big blow. Four of the Six not old.
5- Santana with Wang and Pettitte in the rotation, means a fresher bullpen than the Yankees have had in years.

I'm still not sure. I would be unbelievably excited if they do it, no question, as it would no question be a huge upgrade for the 2008 Yankees. But who knows how good Tabata and Kennedy will be for the next 20 years. There's a lot of room for regret there too. Afterall, how many times have we all heard "Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make."

I'm really getting sick of Seattle

The Mariners are starting to get on my nerves. They obviously aren't as good as their record, but they won't go away. I feel the Yankees should have passed them by now. If they're now 2 games up on Cleveland and Detroit, surely they would have passed Seattle by now. If the Yankees have a better record than every National League team, surely the would have had to pass Seattle by now. But they haven't. In fact, the Yankees have the 4th best record in all of baseball now, and still don't have a playoff spot.

I would assume that a team with the fourth best record in baseball, since 1995 has always made the playoffs.

I was counting on the fact that they wouldn't be able to hit Johan Santana tonight, but they scored twice off of him in the first, and still lead 2-0. It's time Seattle goes away.

Baseball's 50 Most Valuable Players

This is a couple of weeks old, but Baseball Prospectus did another list of the 50 most valuable "properties" in baseball:

If you were starting a baseball team from scratch, which players would you want to build your team around? In practice, these are the ground rules:

• All players playing baseball in any professional league are eligible, including players in the minor leagues and players in professional leagues outside of North America.

• All present contracts are wiped out. In other words, price does not matter.

• Major league service time is also wiped out -- all players are treated as rookies. However, the structure of MLB's free agency rules is left intact. What this means is that you have six years of major league service time at your disposal before your player becomes a free agent. In most cases, this simply means that you'll get the player's 2007 through 2012 seasons -- A-Rod's performance from age 31 through age 37, for example, or Jose Reyes from age 24 through age 29. But if the player is still developing, you're also allowed to stash him in the minor leagues and then start his service time clock at some point in the future.

• Off-field factors such as marketability are not considered, except to the extent that they affect on-field performance. So, Daisuke Matsuzaka does not get any extra credit because he helps you build your brand in Japan.

Their top 10:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Joe Mauer
3. Johan Santana
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Hanley Ramirez
7. Jose Reyes
8. David Wright
9. Brian McCann
10. Alex Rodriguez

I think Hanley Ramirez is underrated as compared to Jose Reyes, but I'd still take Reyes over him. It's a tougher list this year - last year, I thought the top 4 were pretty obvious (Pujols, then Wright, A-Rod and Cabrera in some order). Here's my list:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Jose Reyes
4. Johan Santana
5. Joe Mauer
6. David Wright
7. Miguel Cabrera
8. Alex Rodriguez
9. Carlos Beltran
10. Chase Utley

While Cabrera has a good chance of being the best non-Pujols hitter over the next six years, I don't think he has much chance of being a third baseman by the end of that time, which is why I'd put him below Wright, despite the difference in their offense.

What do you guys think?

Red Sox-Twins

Since this series starts tonight with Santana-Schilling, I figured I'd throw out some random Twins notes that I've gathered from watching the first four minutes of this game:

1. Johan Santana - he had a rough start, mostly attributed to the WBC (by the way, they just showed a replay of Oriz's home run off of Santana in the first inning of the Venezuela-Dominican game... what a game that was, and what a week), but he's back, baby. There's something strangely intimidating about watching him pitch, despite the fact that he's built like a left-handed Pedro and he looks like a left-handed Fernie Estalla. He also stands further to the third base side of the rubber than any pitcher I've ever seen, and I can't beleive I'm just noticing this now.

2. Joe Mauer - everyone knows that he's leading the AL in batting average and should be starting in the all-star game, but I love that he's wearing an old-school, tri-colored Twins helmet behind the plate. I'll try to find a picture of it if I can, but it's very sweet. (EDIT: I captured a picture from the first inning - it's kinda blurry, but you can see the sweeeeeeeeet helmet.)

By the way, Santana just struck out the side in the first inning. And Schilling just walked his first batter in 34 innings or so.

Verlander vs. Santana

Through seven innings, the Tigers and Twins are scoreless. Johan Santana has allowed three hits and struck out ten. Justin Verlander has allowed five hits and sruck out nobody. Neither of them have issued a walk, and they've both thrown 91 pitches.

Given the Twin offense, it's not surprising that Verlander could shut them out with zero strikeouts, but if I'm Jim Leyland, I'd have double-barreled action in the 'pen to start this inning. He can't keep going like this and expect to keep the shutout.

And, just to throw it out there, the Orioles and Yankees both widened their leads to 4-1 within a half-inning of each other. Looks like there will be a tie atop the A.L. East again after tonight.

EDIT: Doug Mirabelli just caught Kevin Millar stealing second, and he stared him all the way back to the dugout, as if to say "I know how slow you are... why are you running on me?" You probably have to have followed the Red Sox over the last few years and have seen this play to fully appreciate how funny it was, but trust me. It was hilarious.

WBC Pitchers

Before the WBC I had said many times that I was just happy that Yankee pitchers were not participating. Now, even more so, but for different reasons. I was worried that one of them might get hurt. Now, it's just the ineffectiveness that the WBC pitchers have shown so far this season.

There are 68 pitchers who pitched in the WBC who have also pitched this season in the Major Leagues. They have a combined 5.09 ERA in 1270 innings. 24 of the 30 teams in baseball have a better team ERA than that. Of the 64 of these pitchers who also pitched in 2005, 20 of them have a better ERA than last season, with 44 of them with a worse ERA (that's 69%).

Of the pitchers who have been better, Rheal Cormier, Byung-Hyun Kim, Joe Nathan, and Dennys Reyes have yet to pitch 10 innings. The others:
Tony Armas 3.98 ERA 31.2 innings
Erik Bedard 3.58 ERA 37.2 innings and now working with one of the top 2 pitching coaches
David Cortes 1.38 ERA 13 innigns pitched
Elmer Dessens 2.30 ERA 15.2 innings pitched
Brian Fuentes 1.20 ERA 12 innings pitched
Jeff Francis 3.60 ERA 35 innings pitched
Hong Chi Kuo 5.54 ERA 13 innings pithed
Francisco Liriano 3.31 ERA 16.1 innings pitched
Chan Ho Park 5.34 ERA 30.1 innings pitched (that's his lowest ERA since 2001 with the Dodgers)
Joel Piniero 4.26 ERA 38 innings pitched
Fernando Rodney 0.00 ERA 12 innings pitched
Duanar Sanchez 0.00 ERA 19 innings pitched
Scot Shields 1.10 ERA 16.33 innings pitched
Mike Timlin 1.54 ERA 11.2 innings pitched
Javier Vazquez 3.00 ERA 33 innings pitched (now working with baseball's other best pitching coach)
Oscar Villarreal 2.25 ERA 12 innings pitched

Three of them were Rockies, most of them are relievers. On the whole, while these pitchers have been better, their overall impact on their teams asn't been that big (in a couple of cases it has). Let's look at just some of the ones the other way.

We have three of the NLs top Cy Young candidates coming into the year; Jake Peavy 4.58 ERA, Carlos Zambrano 5.35 ERA, Dontrelle Willis 4.38 ERA. Of the AL Cy Young candidates there is Johan Santana with a 3.89 ERA, and Bartolo Colon 7.07 ERA.

Some of baseball's closers; Chad Cordero 3.09, Brad Lidge 5.74, Chris Reitsma 5.06, Francisco Rodriguez 3.09, Huston Street 6.75.

Other starting pitchers include; Miguel Batista 5.29, Gustavo Chacin 4.70, Bruce Chen 8.40, Lenny DiNardo 7.36, Freddy Garcia 5.45, Estaban Loiza 8.35, Rodrigo Lopez 6.81, Oliver Perez 7.53, Odalis Perez 6.90, Jae Seo 4.85, Carlos Silva 8.59, Jorge Sosa 6.65, Victor Zambrano 7.20.

The players who have done worse have had a far greater impact than the ones who have done better (just ask the Twins). It seems too overwhelming to just be a coincidence. Since it seems the tournament will be the same time of year next time, if they don't do anything to get the pitchers into more of a regular spring training routine, teams will be trying to convince their pitchers not to participate. And people who play fantasy baseball should factor that into their draft.