Sunday, June 17, 2007

Way past Aaron

Assuming Barry Bonds passes Hank Aaron this year, what are the chances that Alex Rodriguez will get the HR record away from Bonds? Pretty good, I think. It's hard to compare Bonds and ARod, because Bonds' power is skewed to the later, performance enhancing, years of his career. That will not be a career path for ARod. So it's better to compare him to Aaron.

If Alex Rodriguez hits 8 more home runs before July 27th, that will give him 498 home runs on his 32nd birthday (how crazy is it that he could hit 500, before age 32?). On Hank Aaron's 32nd birthday, he had 398 career home runs. It looks like ARod will be 100 home runs ahead of Aaron's pace.

Aaron hit 47% of his home runs after his 32nd birthday. If Rodriguez does that, he'll finish his career with about 950 home runs.

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