Sunday, October 08, 2006

Padres-Cardinals, Game Four

Before I say this, let the record show that I'm currently 0-for-3 in my DS predictions, and will most likely be 0-for-4 for the second time in the last few years when it's all said and done.

Now that that's out of the way, I think LaRussa is making a big mistake bringing Carpenter back on short rest. This never works. Look at the Twins in '03 and '04 - they brought Santana back early and lost elimination games to the Yankees both times.

Granted, these Padres are not those Yankees, and the Cardinals are at home, and they aren't dealing with a "win or go home" situation. But if they lose this game, who starts tomorrow in San Diego? Jeff Weaver on short rest? Anthony Reyes? Rick Ankiel???

And does Carpenter pitch differently because he's on short rest? Does he try to conserve energy so he can still be strong late in the game? Or does he come out firing and run out of gas early? And does LaRussa manage differently because of the short rest? I'm telling you, there are too many variables here - he shouldn't push it like this.

4 comments:

Warren said...

I think Carpenter is on regular rest because of the day off between games 1 and 2. But if they go to Game 5, then they'll either have to throw Weaver on short rest, or Marquis on super-long rest. I'm not sure this is the wrong decision.

On the other hand, the Padres have a solid #4 in Woody Williams, so they're better of with Williams on regular rest in Game 4 than Wells on short rest in Game 5.

Sully said...

Damn, I was feeling good about my prediction in the first inning when Carpenter was walking the ballpark and they got two early runs off of him. Now, not so much.

I'm still pulling for the Padres, though, just so we don't have a baseball-less day tomorrow.

Warren said...

Given the quality of your predictions, please choose the Cardinals over the Mets in the next round.

Man, I had a great 24 hours of sports - Mets advance, Yankees out, Giants over Redskins. But what am I going to do with myself today without baseball?

Sully said...

This is actually the second time in the last four years or so that I've completely whiffed in the first round. I'm going for the perfect 0-for-7.