Sunday, April 30, 2006

Mets in Good Company

What does the fast start mean? Well, as long as you're not last season's Orioles, a lot.

22 teams throughout history have finished April with at least a 4-game lead (19 of them since divisional play began). 17 of the 22 finished in first place, including 17 of the last 20. Of the 5 that did not win the division, 3 finished in 2nd place, 1 finished in 3rd (in a 7-team division), and only the Orioles finished the season with a sub-.500 record (finishing 14 games under). They acutally finished 21 games out of first (and 2 different teams), which is impressively bad for a team that was still in 1st place on June 23rd.

As long as the Mets aren't last year's Orioles (and we all knew the Orioles would collapse), they should be in good shape. Each of the 10 previos teams with a 4 game lead ending April won their division.

The Mets have had one of these leads at the end of April one other time, a 5-game lead in 1986. The best Mets team ever.

The other 22:
Year April Finish GF
Orioles 2005 4 4th -21
Giants 2003 4.5 1st 15.5
Mariners 2001 9 1st 14
Cardinals 2000 4.5 1st 10
Indians 1999 4 1st 21.5
Braves 1998 4 1st 18
Padres 1998 5 1st 9.5
Braves 1997 4 1st 9
Orioles 1997 4 1st 2
Philies 1993 4.5 1st 3
Reds 1990 4.5 1st 5
Brewers 1987 4 3rd 7
Mets 1986 5 1st 21.5
Tigers 1984 6 1st 15
Astros 1979 4 2nd 1.5
Dodgers 1977 7.5 1st 10
Giants 1971 5.5 1st 1
Athletics 1971 4 1st 16
Reds 1970 5 1st 14.5
Dodgers 1955 4.5 1st 13.5
Dodgers 1942 4 2nd 2
Tigers 1911 4.5 2nd 13.5

No comments: