Batting Title: Derek Jeter vs. Michael Young
Who is going to win the AL Batting title this season? Derek Jeter or Michael Young? There are other good candidates of course, but Warren says Michael Young (his pick from before the season), and Reggie Jackson says Derek Jeter. Since I never question Reggie Jackson, I say Derek Jeter. There are a few other people you cannot just dismiss, including former batting title winners Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez and Ichiro Suzuki. There are also former MVPs Miguel Tejada and Jason Giambi. Giambi is hitting like he did back in the days where he batted .342 for the season. Tejada is off to a scorching start, but has never hit above .311 for a season before. Then there are the sleepers Robinson Cano and Chris Shelton. Or it might just be time for Vernon Wells to win.
However, for now, I'm going to dismiss all of them, and narrow it to Derek Jeter and last year's batting title winner Michael Young.
The theory on why Jeter will win the award this year is that he has had slow Aprils in the past, and a fast April would be enough to put him over the top. I actually prefer thh theory that the last time he batted this way in April, he stayed hot most of the year, and produced a .349 average for the 1999 season, a much higher mark than Michael Young's .331 that won him last season's batting title.
Warren suggested that Young's home park would be enough of an edge to beat out Jeter this season. But upon statistical review, Jeter lead the AL in home batting average last season, and historically has always hit better in front of the Yankee Stadium crowd. Young hit .331 at home and .330 on the road last season, although historically he does hit better at home. But this doesn't seem to be the factor that will keep Jeter from winning the title.
Jeter did not actually have a slow April last season, but it wasn't as good as this one. Here are what Derek Jeter's batting averages would have been the last three seasons with his April statistics from this year put in the place of those Aprils.
2005: .321
2004: .323
2003: .336
Only one of those seasons did he do well enough to pass Young's .331 from last year.
Not only that, but Young is hitting .367 this April himself, and HE had a slow April last year. Michael Young's batting average the last three seasons with this April substituted:
2005: .346
2004: .313
2003: .315
What this is showing is, unless Jeter is back in his 1999 form, all Michael Young has to do is proove he is the hitter he was last season.
Michael Young is 2 years younger than Jeter, but he is not entering his prime years, and age hardly seems to be that much of an issue in baseball these days (just waiting to see Warren's "Julio Franco's Older Than" entry for today).
It seems like the batting race should be a good one between these two and quite possibly others as well, and clearly I have nothing to show that Jeter should beat out Michael Young for the batting title. However, I also don't go against Reggie. Afterall, he's smarter than all of us. Don't believe me, just ask him. My pick: Derek Jeter.
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Mickey Rivers after being told of Reggie Jackson's claim of having a 180 I.Q.: "What, out of 1000?"
2 comments:
Don't forget Vlad - he's got a great chance as well. And Luis Castillo is hitting .365, is a very good hitter for average, and has moved into a much better ballpark.
The big question about Jeter is whether or not we should just throw out his April numbers from previous years since he's started much better this season. Is Jeter a .307 hitter (his average over the past 3 seasons) who has happened to do worse in April and better thereafter, or is he really a different hitter in April (.260) than the rest of the season? To me (and this is true of anyone, not just Jeter), those April at-bats tell you something about how good a hitter he is for the whole season - he's a .307 hitter, not a .320 hitter or whatever. So I think it's reasonable to expect him to hit roughly .307 for the rest of the season, which would put his season ending average at around .320.
If Michael Young is really a .317 hitter (his average the last three seasons), then that's what I'd expect him to hit the rest of the year, roughly. With his start, that puts him at around .325 for the year. So it's close.
After Jackie Robinson the most important black in baseball history is Reggie Jackson, I really mean that. — Reggie Jackson
While we're at it: "Reggie Jackson would give you the shirt off his back. Of course then he'd call a press conference to announce it." -Catfish Hunter
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