Sunday, May 13, 2007

2nd Pitch

No matter if your first pitch is a strike or not, if Derek Jeter is standing at the plate, it's a bad idea to let him put the second pitch in play.

Jeter is batting .516 on the second pitch of an at bat this year. And obviously, you're thinking right now, but what kind of sample size is it? So I'll tell you, 31 at bats.

This now makes you think "statistical abnormality", when the sample size goes up, the average will go down. But maybe not as much as you think.

What if we expand the sample size to over 250 at bats where he swung at the second pitch? We'll have to take all of his at bats from the past 2 seasons to do that, but that does increase our sample size to 263.

On second pitches, in those 263 at bats, Jeter is batting a robust .452. What's amazing is it is just as high if the count is 0-1 as if it is 1-0. Pitchers should start throwing their nastiest pitch for their second pitch when Jeter is in the box.

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