Friday, March 23, 2007

Spring Training Stats that Might Matter

It's hard to sift through Spring Training stats. But the following are the ones that may have relevance for the 2007 season (all stats are before today's action):

Jason Varitek: .287 OPS (of course he hit a home run today though). After a horrible 2006 season, and at an age where catchers do fall apart, Varitek's spring might be an indication that there will be no "bounce back" year.

Coco Crisp: .440 OPS. The Boston fans are not going to be very patient with Coco if he gets off to a horrible start. If Crisp doesn't start the regular season well, he could get overwhelmed and become useless in Boston.

Doug Mientkiewicz: .358 OPS. Not that he was ever a great hitter, but that used to be his OBP. He's coming off of back surgery that was supposed to get his hitting back to where it was, it's possible that he's just done.

Nick Markakis: 1.061 OPS. Markakis had an unreal July and August, and a pretty bad September. For him it was good to have the strong spring so at least it's obviously nothing physical that is lingering that caused his horrible September. It seems he's fine and should put up a pretty strong season.

Iwamura: The D-Rays new third baseman has a mere .500 OPS this Spring and seems completely off. Between a harder league and adjusting to his new home he could have major struggles.

Seth McClung: 9.95 ERA, just in case you weren't sure about him.

Scott Kazmir: 7.24 ERA. One has to wonder if he's fully healthy.

BJ Ryan: He's struggled this spring and is having a bit of a problem with his shoulder. He could be a health risk going into this season.

Justin Verlander: 8.31 ERA. Going into his sophomore season, he's not at the stage where you just go into spring training to work on stuff, so his numbers are probably not from that.

Placido Palonco: 1.241 OPS. He had a bit of an off-year last season with injuries. He seems fully recovered.

Carlos Silva: 7.62 ERA. Might be done.

John Lackey: 0.73 ERA in Cactus League. May be in for a big season.

Jason Kendall: .487 OPS in Cactus League. He's at an age, especially with the number of games he's caught that he could have the sudden catcher dropoff this season.

Rich Harden: 1.32 ERA with 25 K's in 13.2 Cactus League innings. If he can stay healthy (big if), he could be in for a monster season.

Sammy Sosa: 1.159 OPS. Sure that's not overly impressive for the Cactus League, but I assume he's on HGH and he could make a successful comeback this year.

Brad Wilkerson: .194 AVG. Probably done.

Paul LoDuca: .520 OPS. Could be meaningless, but at age 35 and a catcher, it could also be showing the beginning of the end.

Prior and Wood: 9.82 and 12.00 ERA respectively. Sure it's the Cactus League, but not a good sign for what was supposed to be one of the great pitching duos of all-time.

Richard Hidalgo: .321 OPS. Just in case anybody was thinking that he could regain his 2003 form, he can't.

Brad Lidge: 11.57 ERA. In the Grapefruit League, and following a season where he had a 5.28 ERA, he could be going the way of many other closers who gave up big postseason home runs.

Brad Penny: 12.86 ERA in the Grapefruit League. He's also having shoulder issues, could be in for a rough or injury-plagued season.

Barry Bonds: Sure it's the Cactus League, but a .931 SLG is impressive in any league.

1 comment:

Sully said...

Even though spring stats mean nothing, fans up here are already panicking about Varitek and Crisp, and there's talk that Pedroia should hit 8th ahead of Crisp (and he's not even having that great a spring!!!).

I was never a fan of the Crisp trade, for a variety of reasons, but I have a hard time believing that he'll NEVER be productive in Boston. Varitek I worry more about, for all of the obvious, "aging catcher" reasons. To be fair, he's got a lot of new pitchers to get familiar with, so it's possible that's what his focus has been this spring, but that contract is looking worse every year.