Monday, May 08, 2006

WPA update

So I've been checking on the WPA scores as the season has gone on (FanGraphs now has updated season totals for every team and player), and I have to say, they're pretty interesting. It's kind of a cross between straight production and "clutch" performance; a lot of it is pretty much what you'd expect, but there are some surprises.

I should point out that the numbers don't include fielding, and relievers in general have higher swings than starters, since in the late innings, the likelihood of winning or losing is already pretty high.

Leading starter: Tom Glavine (151.8% in 7 starts, 21.7% per start). So for each of Glavine's starts, he increases the chance that the Mets will win by almost 22%.

Leading reliever: Duaner Sanchez (208.8% in 15 appearances, 13.9% per appearance).

Leading hitter: Carlos Delgado (133.0% in 30 games, 4.4% per game).

Leading starter: Mike Mussina (105.7% in 7 starts, 15.1% per start).

Leading reliever: Kyle Farnsworth (61.8% in 14 appearances, 4.4% per appearance).

Leading hitter: Derek Jeter (150.6% in 29 games, 5.2% per game).
Very close second: Jason Giambi (149.4% in 28 games, 5.3% per game).

Giambi's raw stats have been far superior to Jeter's, obviously, so this is some measure of proof that Jeter is as "clutch" as people say, or at least he has been this year.

Red Sox
Leading starter: Curt Schilling (97.6% in 7 starts, 13.9% per start).

Leading reliever: Jonathan Papelbon (137.4% in 17 appearances, 8.1% per appearance).

Leading hitter: Manny Ramirez (124.2% in 31 games, 4.0% per game).

Manny is way ahead of Ortiz's 1.5% per game, which surprised me. The shifts have been hurting him, but not that much. Manny's just been far more important than I thought.

Other players of interest
Albert Pujols (322.0%/31 G = 10.4%!!!!!)
Barry Bonds (135.9%/26 G = 5.2%)
Chris Shelton (36.8%/32 G = 1.2%)
Alfonso Soriano (34.5%/32 G = 1.1%)
Ichiro Suzuki (-43.1%/33 G = -1.3%)
Tony Batista (-79.7%/27 G = -3.0%)

Jaret Wright (-18.7/3 G = -6.2%) - this is just his starts, not his relief appearance
Jose Lima (-22.8%/1 G = -22.8%)

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