Triple Steal

Brian Fuentes

2008-11-07T01:08:00.003-05:00

I'm supposed to be working on a paper right now. I have this group project where we have to evaluate a process from beginning to end and calculate throughput times and such, and suggest ways to improve the current process. I'm responsible for consolidating the first draft of the paper that's due on Wednesday, and I've been working on it, but while I do, I like to have some background noise. Tonight, that background noise is Game Four of the 2007 World Series.

(An aside... I love these A&E World Series DVD sets - they really should release more of them. There have been some pretty good series in the last 20 years that they haven't released: 1991, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003... 1991 is especially perplexing since they released the Twins 1987 set, but 1991 is widely considered to be one of the best World Series ever. But I digress.)

So I'm almost done with this stupid paper, and I glance up at the TV for the start of the top of the 8th inning. The Rockies brought Brian Fuentes in to start the inning, and the Red Sox had the immortal Bobby Kielty hit for the pitcher to lead off the inning. First pitch, home run, making the score 4-1 in a game the Sox would eventually win 4-3. First pitch? Really, Brian? I know the odds were stacked against the Rockies coming back, being down 3-0 with Beckett scheduled to go in Game Five, but that was a complete "it's golf season" pitch.

Anyway, I guess I have three points: I love procrastination, I love nostalgia, and I hope - for Warren's sake - that the Mets don't sign Fuentes this off-season.

Dan O'Dowd: Still a bad GM

2008-10-16T17:16:00.002-04:00

So the reason the Rockies didn't draft Evan Longoria is because they didn't need a 3B. Sigh...

It really is sad that a semi-fluke World Series appearance last year is going to keep this guy employed for another few years.

Fan Interference

2008-08-12T21:09:00.002-04:00

In the bottom of the 5th tonight against the Rangers, David Ortiz hit a shot to dead center that might have left the yard for his third homer of the game. The problem is, some morons in the bleachers reached out and one of them grabbed the ball, and the umpires correctly called fan interference and ruled it a double.

The replays were inconclusive - the fans definitely made contact with the ball while it was above the plane of the top of the wall, but at the angle it was descending, you couldn't tell if it would have left the park or hit the very top of the wall. If the fans had let the ball go, the worst case scenario was a double. The best case was that it cleared the wall and was a home run. By touching it, the guaranteed that it was a double, eliminating the best-case scenario.

The one moron who ended up with the ball was ejected (or at least, he was being talked to by security on TV right after the play). That made me happy, but didn't really soften the blow of losing a run in a two-run game. What did soften the blow was Kevin Youkilis following up the "double" with a home run of his own, making the score 14-10(!) in the bottom of the 5th.

Slightly off-topic, this Texas team is crazy. Their pitching is so bad that Scott Feldman gave up 10 runs in the first inning tonight, and he still ended up pitching into the third. But even after the 10-spot, their offense is so good that I was worried after they got two right back in the top of the second, and sure enough, they closed the gap to 12-10 after four and a half. I have a mid-term tomorrow - I can't handle a 4-hour slugfest tonight.

Visualizing the Platoon

2008-08-07T16:44:00.003-04:00

There's a lot to digest, but this Dan Brooks article about the platoon split was really interesting. I've often heard the theory that it's easier to hit a ball moving towards you than one moving away from you, but I've never completely understood why it would make such a huge difference.

Instead, you sometimes hear players say that they see the ball much better when the pitcher throws with the opposite hand, but this is the first time I've seen someone actually show how pitches look different depending on which batters' box you're standing in.

These two graphs show Justin Masterson's fastball and slider from both batters' boxes (the first one is the view for righty batters, the second for lefties). You can see how a lefty could distinguish the slider from the fastball much more easily than the righty. Shifting a few feet to the side (even from 60 feet away) gives you a much different view, especially when the pitcher has a low arm angle like Masterson.

Um, That Sucks?

2008-07-29T22:34:00.006-04:00

Admittedly, I haven't been to many games at Fenway this year. I went to a Yankee game in May, and the 1-0 Beckett-Chamberlain game on Friday, but that was it, until tonight. Of course, I was almost at the Royals game that sits immediately below this post yet was two and a half months ago, but that doesn't count. Almost doesn't mean anything in baseball.

After missing my chance to see Lester's no-hitter, I started to wonder if I would ever see one. I mean, what are the odds? Ross has seen a no-no and a perfect game, but that was during a ridiculous string of luck at Yankee Stadium. In my lifetime, three no-hitters have been thrown at Fenway Park, and they've all happened in the last six years. That's a streak, but it's also a sign that Fenway's luck is about to run out. After turning down tickets to Lester's gem, I figured my luck had run out, too.

Then tonight happened. I went to the game with my friend Cory, who got his tickets as a free gift for buying... something else of substance. We had great seats behind the third base dugout, and with the Sox struggling to hang with the Yankees and Rays (that still feels weird to say), the team's struggles against the Angels, the ongoing Manny Ramirez drama, and the Teixeira trade an hour earlier, we had plenty to talk about in the early going. Three innings flew by in 45 minutes, despite two unearned Angel runs due to two Sox errors (Cora's error was later changed to a hit, but it looked like an error to us), and Lackey, despite giving up a lot of fly balls, still hadn't allowed a hit. I noticed the zeros on the scoreboard after three, but Cory, having forgotten his glasses, didn't. It was way too early, so I didn't say anything, even though it was impossible not to think about.

After five, it was 4-0 Angels, and Cory finally realized what was happening. Lackey was still giving up lot of fly balls, but had allowed only a hit batsman to reach base. If a Sox pitcher was working this magic, we probably wouldn't have said anything, but since it was the enemy, we talked openly about it... "Five innings... that's not insignificant, but it's still early. We can't root for this, can we? No, there's still time to come back. The Sox have hit Lackey well in the past, it's not over yet."

Still, part of me actually hoped he would do it. I wasn't sure if it was okay to think that, but I did. I can't deny it. After seeing Danny Darwin and Paul Abbott come so close in the past, and blowing off Jon Lester just months earlier, I felt like I was running out of chances. The Yankees were losing, but the Rays were winning, so I was torn as I tried to look at it practically. As if sensing my moral dilemma, and knowing full well the regret I felt over not being there for Lester's no-hitter, Ross send me a text asking if I was at the park. My reply: "Actually..."

He followed by asking what I was rooting for. Obviously, I wanted the Sox to win, but this was baseball history at stake. I went back and forth with myself until the top of the seventh, when the Angels scored two more off of the Buchholz/Hansen pu pu platter. Staring at a 6-0 deficit, my mind was made up.

Even if the Sox managed a hit, even if they scored a run, at this point, it was unlikely that they would win. As Cory and I silently conceded that we were, in fact, the Angels' bitches this year, we also acknowledged that history was more important than this one July win. As some pink-hatters filed out of the park and others tried to start the wave in the bleachers, we both passively rooted for the no-no. After dodging the Alex Cora bullet in the bottom of the 8th (we were both convinced that some stiff like Cora, who had no business not being pinch-hit for in that situation, would break it up with a swinging bunt or a Texas Leaguer), we gave up on being passive. This was happening - we were sure of it.

Finally, in the bottom of the 9th, we stood. In the break before the final half-inning, everyone stood, but as Ellsbury dug in to start the frame, the five or so rows in front of us all sat down. Not wanting to block people's views, we sat as well, but we felt really bad about it.

After Ellsbury struck out, we noticed that people one section over were standing - all of them. I knew we had time to run over and find some empty seats in that section and stand for the remaining two outs because, damnit, that's what you do for a no-hitter. So we did, and no sooner did we get there than did Cory mention how he'd never seen a no-hitter before. Like clockwork, Dustin Pedroia grounded the next pitch into left field, and we started pointing fingers at each other. Cory blamed me for switching seats, I blamed him for talking about this being his first.

Next thing you know, Youkilis homers, and it's a 4-run game with one out and Ortiz and Ramirez coming up. This is the worst case scenario; the no-no is gone and the game is still out of reach, but they're making a comeback just to pull you back in. I'll give you 1,000 guesses as to the final score, but suffice it to say, I went home with a bad case of baseball fan blue balls.

Did I deserve this? Maybe. Whether it was for skipping the Lester game or rooting against the home team, talking openly about it or thinking about it too early... it's hard to think back and consider all of the things I could have done differently. Lackey was not on his game tonight - he allowed tons of fly balls and only struck out four - and the Sox seemed deflated, whether by the Teixeira acquisition or something else. Maybe it just wasn't, or shouldn't have been, meant to be.

Or maybe it's just me. Baseball makes you think about stuff like that, for no good reason. But that's one reason why we keep coming back. You just never know.

Lesson Learned

2008-05-19T21:43:00.004-04:00

Last week, a co-worker said he knew someone who had five tickets to tonight's Sox-Royals game. He asked me if I wanted them at face value, $45 each. I said I'd try to get some people together and let him know. I figured I'd try to get a few of my cousins together, so I e-mailed one to see if he'd be interested. He didn't respond right away, and I wasn't in the office on Thursday or Friday, and that co-worker wasn't in today. I pretty much forgot about it, since it was the Royals and Beckett, who was supposed to pitch tonight, got moved up a day to face the Brewers after Buchholz hit the DL.

Fast forward to 5:30 this afternoon. After being away late last week, and after Danielle worked nights most of the weekend, we had barely seen each other. She told me she'd make a nice dinner tonight, and it was relatively cold and windy downtown today, so when my boss called me and said someone from the regional office had extra tickets to the game tonight, I thought about it for about five seconds and said no thanks. For the second time in a week, I decided I didn't want to spend tonight at Fenway Park.

I will never make that mistake again.

Only the Yankees left out

2008-05-05T23:56:00.001-04:00

The only team in the Yankee organization not in first place, is the Yankees. Every one of their minor league teams is in first place, with a combined 83-43 record between the teams.

Old Man Wells

2008-04-21T00:48:00.002-04:00

No, I'm not talking about soon-to-be 45-year old David Wells. I'm actually referring to the 29-year old Blue Jay centerfielder Vernon Wells. Despite not yet reaching his 30s, Wells is the AL East's oldest centerfielder by 5 years.

Boston: Jacoby Elsbury, 24 Years Old
New York: Melky Cabrera, 23 Years Old
Tampa Bay: BJ Upton, 23 Years Old
Baltimore: Adam Jones, 22 Years Old

There are actually just 2 AL starting Centerfielders older than Wells, 32-year old Torii Hunter and 34-year old Ichiro Suzuki. The 14 AL starting centerfielders average being under 26 years old, and have a median age of 25. I'm assuming both are the youngest for any AL position.

The NL Centerfielder average age is just shy of 29, with a Median age of 28. Jim Edmonds at age 37, is the NL's oldest centerfielder by 5 years, thanks to Griffey's move to rightfield.

Minor League Catchers

2008-04-10T22:54:00.002-04:00

Posada has a 4-year contract, and the Yankees have two catching prospects. This can work well as the two prospects are just 18 and 19 years old, in Jesus Montero and Austin Romine, respectively.

My favorite is Montero who many think is by far the best hitter to come out of Venezuela since Miguel Cabrera. The Yankees decided, due to their age and inexperience, both were only ready for low-A ball, playing in the Sally League.

I actually like it a lot. Every day they both play. One catches and the other DHs. They have been alternating every day, so they are both in the starting lineup every day, and are getting very little abuse to their bodies, as they're not even catching two days in a row.

Montero's bing weakness so far is that he's only walked one time in 8 games, but has a .960 OPS nonetheless. If he keeps hitting like that, the two may get split up.

My favorite most underrated Yankee prospect remains reliever David Robertson. With 7 shutout so far at AA, he now has a career 0.89 ERA in 91 minor league innings. He's from the same draft class as Chamberlain and Kennedy. The only problem that I can see at all with Robertson is his height. He's 5'11". With his stuff, I don't think that will be a problem at all at AA or AAA, but we'll see (my guess is this season) if it's a problem at the big league level with ML hitters getting a little longer look than they do against the taller pitchers.

AAAA

2008-04-10T22:39:00.001-04:00

I think Shelly Duncan is quickly fitting that category. He seems like he can't do any more in AAA. He played his first game back at Scranton, went 4-for-5 with 3 doubles and a home run.

Posada

2008-04-08T15:51:00.002-04:00

I'm not positive as I couldn't find a list of most games caught to check every catcher that needed checking, but from what I can tell, last season tied the record of most consecutive seasons catching at least 130 games, at 8. Tying the record that Jason Kendall set just one year prior.

In Kendall's first year of his streak, he had a .412 OBP and a .470 SLG. By the last year of it he had a .301 OBP and a .306 SLG.

Bob Boone actually took a 5-year streak through age 38. However, he wasn't much of a hitter through any of it. The mid-year of it, age 36, the age Posada turned last season, Boone had a .504 OPS, significantly lower than Posada's .543 SLG of last season.

Yogi Berra had a 7-year streak, but the last of those years was age 31.

Other Hall-of-Famers (and locks) streaks and the ages they did it:
Carlton Fisk - 3, 28-30
Johnny Bench 4, 20-23
Mike Piazza - 4, 27-30
Ivan Rodriguez - 4, 24-27
Gabby Hartnett - 1, 32
Gary Carter - 4, 28-31
Mickey Cochrane - 3, 25-27
Roy Campanella - 1, 31
Rick Ferrell - 1, 32
Ernie Lombardi - 0
Rick Ferrell - 0
Ray Schalk - 1, 29
Roger Bresnahan - 1, 29
Bill Dickey - 1, 30

Jason Varitek's longest streak was 3. And Yankee coach Tony Pena made it to five, but with a very low OPS.

Posada is in somewhat uncharted territory.

Doing Better

2008-04-03T23:02:00.003-04:00

On opening day, Chien-Ming Wang matched his career total for wins in April. If the game hadn't been rained out, and if the results would have been the same, he would have had as many career wins in March as in April, which is odd for a guy with back-to-back 19-win seasons.

Mariano Rivera is one month ahead of last year's pace with saves. Due to a combination of the Yankees' stuggles and a few horrible games of his own, Rivera didn't save his 2nd game until May 3rd last season. He actually only had 4 saves at the start of June last season, without a DL stint. The third contributing factor was the few games the Yankees did win that the first two months last year, they were winning by more than 3 runs.

Suck It, Jeff Brantley

2008-04-02T22:10:00.003-04:00

Tonight. Diamondbacks 5, Reds 3. Brandon Lyon, pitching in the bottom of the ninth, gives up back-to-back singles to start the inning, bringing up Edwin Encarnacion. After a few inevitable bunt attempts inevitably failed, Encarnacion worked the count to 2-2. Here's the conversation leading up to the next pitch, between the play-by-play man (who I believe is Thom Brenaman), and color man (who I'm 99% sure is Jeff Brantley):

TB: "See that's the problem when you ask a guy who has never bunted..."
JB: "Take him out of the game!"
TB: "Well..."
JB: "If he can't bunt, take him out of the game..."
TB: "If you believe in the bunt in this situation..."
(zoom in on Dusty Baker)
JB: "You're at home, you have to tie the game..."
TB: "But again, that's a by-the-book kind of thing. I don't know if there's anyone on that bench you're gonna bring in... for Encarnacion."
JB: "This guy is NOT a clutch hitter. He is not a clutch hitter."
TB: "Well his numbers... would be contrary to that."
JB: "He is not a clutch player."
TB: "2-2 pitch..."
(Encarnacion hits a 3-run walk-off home run)

Brantley did laugh afterwards and say he stood corrected, but still. That's what you get for clinging to antiquated beliefs in the existence of "clutch" instead of ripping Dusty for calling for the bunt in the first place. For the record, I actually jumped out of my seat when Encarnacion made contact - I've never been so happy to see an announcer proven wrong.

Last Minute Predictions

2008-03-31T11:41:00.003-04:00

I'm not sure I've ever predicted the Mets to win the World Series before. Time to jinx them in a whole new way.

Playoffs:
Mets over Dodgers in 4
Diamondbacks over Cubs in 3
Yankees over Indians in 5
Angels over Red Sox in 5

Mets over Diamondbacks in 6
Angels over Yankees in 5

Mets over Angels in 6

Awards:
AL MVP – Miguel Cabrera
Darkhorse – Erik Bedard

AL Cy Young – John Lackey
Darkhorse – Jon Garland (I could see him being the guy that gets great run support and lucks into 22 wins)

AL Rookie – Evan Longoria
Darkhorse – Jacob McGee

NL MVP – David Wright
Darkhorse – Matt Kemp

NL Cy Young – Cole Hamels
Darkhorse – Aaron Harang

NL Rookie – Hiroki Kuroda
Darkhorse – Brandon Jones

More than you ever wanted to know about Jose Canseco

2008-03-28T16:44:00.001-04:00

This is great.

Quick Hits

2008-03-28T15:28:00.002-04:00

The first two items are courtesy of Joe Posnanski:

In 1985, this is what Dwight Gooden did in four of his starts: 7 innings, two runs; 8 innings, 2 runs; 7 innings, 3 runs; and 6 innings, 2 runs. Those are his four losses. ("He also had two nine inning, 0 run no-decisions.")
Vida Blue had his huge year at age 21. In that season, between April 13 and July 21, Blue started 22 games and threw 196 2/3 innings. Yikes.

Also, here's an excellent article about a former Mets prospect, written by some guy named Plimpton. It's nice to see this online.

Hideki Matsui, comedic genius

2008-03-28T14:36:00.003-04:00

If you haven't yet heard this story, you have to read it. Aparently Hideki Matsui had a serious girlfriend, but he only told his close family about her. This spring, Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu made a bet about who would get married first, and Matsui talked his way into the bet. Well, lo and behold, Matsui leaves spring training for a day and comes back married, much to the surprise of the entire team. Here's Matsui showing a picture of his new bride to the media:

I love that the microphone is right in front of her face, but my favorite thing about the entire story is this quote about how he won the bet:

"Basically, the only people I told about this were the immediate family. I think that helped."

That kills me for some reaon.

2008 Predictions

2008-03-25T09:29:00.006-04:00

Standings:

AL East - I know it's a cop out, but I don't know if either the Red Sox or Yankees are really better than the other. Before the Schilling and Beckett injuries, I would have picked the Red Sox, just because the Yankees rotation scares me (in a good way). Pettitte's hurt already, Mussina's probably done, Wang's adequate (but what happened to him in the playooffs?). Throw in the "rookies" and there are just way too many question marks. And the bullpen without Joba is worrisome as well. The Red Sox are depending on a good amount of youth as well, especially with the injuries, which is why I can't confidently pick them either. I guess I'll give the Yankees the tie-breaker, just because they seem to hit Beckett and Matsuzaka well, so they should take the season series. That would leave the Red Sox as the Wild Card.

As for the rest, the Jays haven't done enough to put themselves into contention, unless waiting for Vernon Wells to play like the superstar that he isn't qualifies. Their season will depend on their young pitching, and losing Janssen for the season hurts. I love the Rays. I'm not crazy enough to think they can contend, like some people, but I think they can hover around .500. The Orioles finally realized that it was time to rebuild, so good luck with that.

AL Central - I worry about the Tigers' pitching just about as much as the Yankees, but more so their bullpen, which is hideous. Still, they're in a suddenly weak division, and their offense could be historic once Granderson comes back. I think they're the favorites. The Indians won't be as good as last year if only because I don't think Sabathia and Carmona can do it again after all the innings they pitched last year. The rest of their rotation is average, so they'll need Hafner to bounce back if the offense is going to carry them.

The White Sox made some nice pick-ups in Swisher and Quentin, but they overpaid (in years and millions) for bullpen arms, which is always a bad idea, and they didn't do anything to upgrade the crumbling rotation. After Vazquez and Buehrle, it's a replacement-level mess. The Royals seem to be heading in the right direction, finally, but I don't think they're as far along as Tampa Bay yet. The Twins... eh. Nice job getting the taxpayers to build you a stadium before getting rid of two of your best players. Even with the over-rated Delmon Young, their offense is weak.

AL West - Anaheim wins by default, honestly. This is the one team that should have done whatever it took to get Miguel Cabrera, and as usual, they were too chickenshit to make a deal. I will laugh hysterically when Nick Adenhart and Brandon Wood end up in the same dustbin as Ervin Santana and Dallas MacPherson. I still think Oakland can be decent, if only some of Harden, Crosby, and Chavez can contribute more than half a season, but mostly because I don't think much of the rest of the division.

I didn't like the Bedard trade for the Mariners only because they need more than one piece. Of course he's a big boost to their rotation, but he's been injury-prone in the past, and they still have more than a few weak spots in their lineup. They do have a nasty bullpen, though. Texas still can't pitch, as evidenced by their dumpster-diving acquisitions of Jason Jennings, Sir Sidney Ponson, and John Patterson. And yet they still traded one of their best pitching prospects for a center fielder who could relapse at any time. Sound business plan.

NL East - The Mets have to be the favorites after stealing Johan Santana - I don't care how many of their old, over-rated hitters get hurt. Philly's rotation isn't good, and Atlanta's is worse. If Pedro can re-capture some of that old magic, even for just stretches of a few weeks, it's going to be incredibly fun to follow the Mets this year. Philly reminds me of those late-90's Cleveland teams that could never get over the hump despite their sick hitting because their pitching was always substandard.

If I have to hear one more person say that Glavine rounds out a strong Atlanta rotation, I'm going to snap. Did anyone else see him pitch last year? Anyone? I'm falling in love with Manny Acta, but the talent just isn't there for the Nationals yet. You could give me 20 guesses, and I couldn't tell you the Marlins' starting rotation. Too many young, unproven, and/or injured guys in front of a bad defense spells trouble.

NL Central - I don't even think the Cubs are that good, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Milwaukee steal this division. Zambrano's not really a true ace, and the rotation behind him is uninspiring. Fukudome could be a huge help to the top of the order, but naturally, they're going to hit him fifth because they're in love with Ryan Theriot. I don't get Lou Piniella. Milwaukee needs Sheets and Gallardo to stay healthy, which can't happen because Gallardo's already on the DL and Ben Sheets is Ben Sheets.

The rest of this division is a mess. Dusty Baker brings his reign of terror to Cincinnati, where he's already buried Jay Bruce behind Corey Patterson and tried to alter Joey Votto's approach. The Cardinals have spent more money on similar risks in the pitching staff as Texas, and Pujols could be lost for the season at any moment. Pittsburgh brought in a whole new management team, and the new management team promptly did nothing to change last year's sixth place team. The Astros should be re-building, but instead traded all of their 40-man roster depth for injury-prone Jose Valverde and soon-to-be-indicted Miguel Tejada. Chicago and Milwaukee have no excuses for not finishing 1-2.

NL West - As usual, I have no idea what to make of this division. I think the Dodgers have the most talent, but they've proven that they don't know how to use it. Maybe Torre can change that, but he hasn't been very kind to rookies in the past. I picked Arizona knowing that they played over their heads last year, thinking that most of the young guys will only get better, Justin Upton will play a full season, and adding Haren to the rotation gives them a boost. The Padres are the team that I'm must unsure of. Great pitching in a great pitcher's park, but I'm not completely sold on their hitters (and why won't they give Chase Headley a shot?). Colorado is bound to regress - their pitching's just not that good. The Giants are a train wreck, pure and simple. I have no idea how Brian Sabean still has a job - he's been totally exposed by his Bonds-less teams.

Playoffs:
Brewers over Phillies in one-game NL Wild Card playoff
Tigers 3, Red Sox 2
Yankees 3, Angels 2
Mets 3, Brewers 1
Diamondbacks 3, Cubs 2
Tigers 4, Yankees 2
Mets 4, Diamondbacks 2
Tigers 4, Mets 3

World Series MVP - Magglio Ordonez

Awards:
AL MVP – Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Grady Sizemore
AL Cy Young – Justin Verlander, Scott Kazmir, Javier Vazquez
AL Rookie – Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, Daric Barton
AL Manager – Jim Leyland, Joe Girardi, Terry Francona
AL Comeback – B.J. Ryan, Hank Blalock, Carl Pavano
AL Fireman – J.J. Putz, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez

NL MVP – David Wright, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Braun
NL Cy Young – Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt
NL Rookie – Geovany Soto, Kosuke Fukudome, Jay Bruce
NL Manager – Willie Randolph, Lou Piniella, Ned Yost
NL Comeback – Nick Johnson, Randy Johnson, Nomar Garciaparra
NL Fireman – Rafael Soriano, Chad Cordero, Carlos Marmol

And yes, Pavano and Nomar were jokes. I just couldn’t resist.

The Bell Center

2008-03-18T22:54:00.005-04:00

I know this isn't baseball, but... wow. I have to say, anyone who considers himself to be even a minor hockey fan absolutely must see a Canadiens game in Montreal. On Saturday night, I took a temporary break from my bachelor party to see the Habs trounce the Islanders, and it was a sight to see. Not one person left their seat during play - they all waited until intermission. The beer guy would even sit down during play and wait until a whistle to start selling again.

You were both there in Lynah in 2000 when The Red beat Harvard twice in the playoffs, and when the playoff pairings were announced on Tribute to Seniors night - the Bell Center, for a regular season game against an Eastern Conference doormat, was three times louder than any of those nights. Every time the Canadiens scored, I couldn't even hear myself think. The only thing I've ever seen come close to the energy of the fans at this game are playoff games at Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium. It was stunning.

There were negatives, though. For one, I give you... the wave:

(For some reason, my firefox browser doesn't show this video - if you can't see it, here it is on YouTube.)

There were others... never have I heard more hip-hop songs over a PA system, which, given the sport and the location, was just weird (but I guess that's French Canada for you). The "Olé, OléOléOlé... Olé.... Olé....." chant got really old, really fast. The incredible fan support for a player like Alex Kovalev, one of the biggest wastes of talent in the history of sports, was mind boggling - he got the biggest cheers during the pre-game introductions by a landslide. And, of course, hearing a bunch of drunk, grown men screaming "Wee! Wee!" when something exciting happened just sounded lame.

But still. For 60 full minutes, 44,000 eyes were glued to the ice. I don't see how you can ask for anything more. I've seen NHL games in six venues, and this was, by far, my favorite experience (finishing ahead of a Bruins overtime playoff win over Montreal at the Fleet Center, a Stanley Cup Finals game in New Jersey, and a Bruins-Rangers game at MSG). And I hate the Canadiens. Sorry for the tangent, but I feel like this had to be said.

Quick Hits

2008-03-16T19:50:00.005-04:00

Ross, do you still think the man at the right isn't a Hall of Famer?
An interesting look at the catchers that blocked the highest percentage of pitches in the dirt last season.
In the battle on shades of red, let's hope Carnelian can whoop up on Cardinal.
Mandy, Connor and I went to an open house at Dell Diamond last week - the home of the Astros' AAA team. We watched an 1860s-style game: while I knew that a ball caught on a single bounce meant the batter was out, I didn't realize that the runners could advance after that bounce. But at the risk of sounding too "Field Of Dreamsy" (hell, there's no such thing), there's nothing better than taking your son onto a real field and having a catch. Well, as much of a catch as you can have with a three-year-old.

I thought they were above this sort of thing

2008-03-11T08:26:00.003-04:00

So the Yankees signed Billy Crystal to a one-day contract. This is usually the kind of cheap, headline-grabbing thing I'd expect from the Red Sox (at least before Dr. Charles bolted for LA - he must be kicking himself that he didn't sign Ben Affleck first).

Quite honestly, I don't even know how to feel about the Yankees here. Disappointed? Can you be disappointed in your rival? I can't laugh at them because I know full well that the Red Sox are capable of much worse - they'll probably send Crystal a Red Sox Nation membership card after this.

I like it better than 38Pitches

2008-03-05T06:53:00.002-05:00

Not as detailed but Phil Hughes gives stuff away:

http://philhughes.wordpress.com/

2008 Wins Over/Under

2008-03-03T14:00:00.005-05:00

They're out:

Arizona Diamondbacks 87.5
Atlanta Braves 84.5
Baltimore Orioles 64.5
Boston Red Sox 94
Chicago Cubs 87
Chicago White Sox 80.5
Cincinnati Reds 78
Cleveland Indians 90
Colorado Rockies 83
Detroit Tigers 93.5
Florida Marlins 69
Houston Astros 75.5
Kansas City Royals 73.5
Los Angeles Angles 92
Los Angeles Dodgers 86.5
Milwaukee Brewers 84.5
Minnesota Twins 75.5
New York Mets 93.5
New York Yankees 93.5
Oakland Athletics 73
Philadelphia Phillies 87.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 70.5
San Diego Padres 84.5
San Francisco Giants 73
Seattle Mariners 85.5
St. Louis Cardinals 76.5
Tampa Bay Rays 75
Texas Rangers 77
Toronto Blue Jays 85.5
Washington Nationals 72.5

Crazy as it sounds, I think I'd go over on the Rays and under on the Indians. My best bet would definitely be under on the Giants - that's a historically bad offensive team. Ross, they have the same number as the A's... double or nothing?

Identifying a Changeup

2008-03-03T12:29:00.002-05:00

The New York Times may not be known for its sports coverage, but this look at how batters try (and fail) to identify a changeup was pretty interesting.

Drafting Yankees

2008-03-02T22:49:00.002-05:00

I'm not sure what either of your situations right now are with Fantasy Baseball. However, as we approach that time of year, I'll be giving my suggestions as always. The two Yankees that stick out for me right now are Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu.

Giambi would only be taken to trade off in May. Remember, when Giambi is healthy, he's still about as dangerous as any hitter in baseball. He's just rarely healthy. Also, it seems he's going to be playing a lot of first base this season, which he historically hits much better doing. This means two things, a huge start and a quick injury.

Last year he was hitting .330 on May 5th before getting hurt and slumping miserably. He looks really good right now. I see a big April from him, and then trade him.

Abreu is in the final year of his contract, which is always interesting. He looks like a completely different player than last spring. It's not surprising the Yankees were on him about that after coming into spring training out of shape last year, and having a horrible start. If you're not sure about Abreu's dedication right now, he has already stolen 2 bases this spring.

I'll keep you updated on my thoughts.

A Little Competition

2008-03-02T22:33:00.003-05:00

I always feel when players are competing for a spot in Spring Training and don't do well, I pretty much write them off. There is very little reason to not do well if you are competing for a spot in Spring Training. Especially at the beginning of spring training where 80 - 90% of the pitches are probably fastballs. That gives any hitter trying to compete for a spot, as opposed to a hitter working and experimenting with different things, an advantage. It also gives an advantage to pitchers competing. As these pitchers are throwing a normal selection of pitches, breaking and off-speed stuff, and since the hitters are only used to fastballs at this point, they tend to do well.

The Yankees have now played 2 Spring Training Games against other big league teams, and four of the players competing for playing time at first base, Giambi, Duncan, Lane, and Betemit have already homered.

Also in these 2 games, Duncan and Giambi both have doubles, and Lane a triple.

Quick Hits

2008-02-29T14:23:00.002-05:00

Want to be a scout? Throw the Cardinals a bone.
Cool graphic of NBA players, showing you players that are similar to each other.
Nerd alert. Ever heard of a Ruth-Aaron pair?
Why you should look closely at Reds reliever Jared Burton: he throws the pitch most similar to Mariano Rivera's cutter.

Multi-Home Run World Series Games

2008-02-23T19:42:00.002-05:00

45 Times in World Series history has a player hit at least 2 home runs in a single game.

The very first time it had been done was the first World Series, where Boston's Patsy Dougherty did it. By 1958 it had been done 18 times, all 18 by either a New York or Boston player. One of the times was actually the Boston Braves.

In the 30 World Series from 1918 through 1947, only Yankees did it. 3 different Yankees did it in the 1932 World Series; Hall of Famers Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Tony Lazzeri.

1959 the New York/Boston streak was broken when both a White Sox player and a Los Angeles Dodger did it. It would not happen by a non-New York or Boston player again until 1972. 2 Red Sox did it in 1967. In the first 68 World Series played, only 1959 had a player not from New York or Boston hit 2 home runs in a World Series game.

The most surprising of them was Willie Aikens, who did it in both Game 1 and then again in Game 4 of the 1985 World Series. He's just one of five players who did it who never made an all-star team (not counting the 3 players who did it in the 1910s), and the only non-Hall of Famer to have done it twice.

The players who have done it at least twice were Babe Ruth (4 times), Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Duke Snider, and Willie Aikens.

The other non All-Stars were Joe Collins, Chad Curtis, Tim Salmon, and Kirk Gibson.

Tony Gwynn Jr. and Trevor Hoffman

2008-02-21T14:32:00.001-05:00

Great article.

Hovering around .500

2008-02-18T13:57:00.003-05:00

There are 4 teams that have their franchise record hovering around .500. The poor Astros. The Astros need to win 91 games this season to get to .500. At one point in April last season they were within 1 game of .500. That would have been the first time the franchise had been at .500 since the franchise was 12 games old.

The Diamondbacks are currently 18 games over .500, so they just have to win 72 games this season to not fall under.

The Blue Jays finally had gotten over in 1993, but regressed very quickly the 3 years after that. To get back over now, they would need to pull off a miracle 102-win season.

Then there are the Braves, who were under for such an incredibly long time. Even that monster run they went on for all those years did not put them over. It put them very close, and then they let the team slide. They need to win 92 games this year to get over .500, a winning percentage that they accomplished 14 times from 1991 to 2004.

The Yankees can lose 100 games each season through the 2065 season and still be over .500.

Yankees top-10 Homers

2008-02-18T09:03:00.002-05:00

I'm having trouble ranking them, and haven't to this point. I have it narrowed down to 36 (is that narrow) moments. I'll use the Sully method for writing it out:

Honorable Mention Non-Playoffs

Alex Rodriguez vs. Orioles April 8th, 2007 - After getting booed for not coming through in big moments for all of 2006, ARod gets his first huge chance in 2007. With the Yankees down a run in the 9th, Oriole closer Chris Ray gets the first 2 guy out, and then puts the next 3 guys on, setting the stage for ARod. With 1 ball and 2 strikes, Rodriguez comes through with Grand Slam, getting in better with the NY fans, and riding it to an MVP Award.

Don Mattingly vs. Boston Red Sox, September 29th, 1987 – Mattingly hits his MLB record 6th Grand Slam of the season off Bruce Hurst. Mattingly is an unlikely person to have the single-season grand slam record as his career total for Grand Slams, also 6.

Don Mattingly at Texas Rangers, July 18th, 1987 - Mattingly caps an unbelievable stretch hitting a home run for the 8th straight game (10 home runs total). The pull-hitter, actually hits this one the opposite way.

Reggie Jackson vs. Chicago White Sox, April 13th, 1978 – Reggie said years earlier, that if he ever went to New York they’d name a candy bar after him. So after his 3-home run performance to clinch the ’77 World Series, they did. At the Yankees home opener for 1978 they gave each of the fans a Reggie Bar. In the first inning and to huge applause as he went into the batters box, Reggie hit a 3-run home run and hundreds of fans threw their Reggie Bars onto the field.

Mickey Mantle at Washington Senators, April 17th, 1953 – Mantle’s home run on this day created the term tape-measure home run. The ball left Griffith Stadium, and was measured from the person’s yard it landed in to home plate.

Lou Gehrig vs. Phildelphia A’s, June 3rd 1932 – Lou Gehrig becomes the first player to hit 4 home runs in one game. He was actually one of 6 Hall of Famers to hit a home run that day (Ruth, Lazzeri, Combs, Cochrane, and Foxx). The Yankees scored 20 runs and Tony Lazzeri hit for the cycle.

Babe Ruth vs. Boston Red Sox, April 18th, 1923 – The very first day of Yankee Stadium. More than 80,000 fans in attendance and Babe Ruth doesn’t disappoint, hitting the first home run in Yankee Stadium history in a Yankee victory.

Honorable Mention in Post-Season Non-World Series Winning Years

Jorge Posada, 2001 ALDS Game 3 – All anybody remembers from this game is “The Play.” The Yankees were down 2 games to none in the ALDS, and in the 5th inning, Jorge Posada, off Barry Zito, got the Yankees first (and one of only 2) hits of the game, a home run. It would hold up for a 1-0 win, as the Yankees would go on to win the Division Series.

Jim Leyritz, 1995 ALDS Game 2 – In a back and forth game, where Ruben Sierra and Don Mattingly hit back-to-back home runs in the 6th inning to tie the game and take the lead, we got our first flash of Jim Leyritz’ post-season heroics. Griffey Jr. hit a home run in the 12th for the Mariners, but Ruben Sierra hit a double off the wall to tie it in the bottom half. Then Jim Leyritz, at 1:22am, in the 15th inning, hits the Walk-Off home run. The Yankees did not win the series though.

Alfonso Soriano, 2001 ALCS Game 4 – The Mariners had crushed the Yankees 13-4 in game 3, and the 116-win team was trying to tie the series up. In the 9th inning of Kaz Sasaki, Alfonso Soriano hits the Walk-Off Home Run, helping keep the Yankees 125-win season (including the postseason) intact.

Mickey Mantle, 1964 World Series Game 3 – Mantle hits a walk-off home run to take a 2-1 series lead.

Honorable Mention – ALCS Leading to Championship Years

Derek Jeter, 1996 ALCS Game 1 – Jeffrey Maier, need I say more.

Bernie Williams, 1996 ALCS Game 1 – Actually I do need to say more. We all remember that as the Jeffrey Maier game, but there was a lot more. That home run tied the game in the 8th inning, but there were still 3 more innings of baseball afterwards. In the 11th , Bernie Williams clobbered one into the leftfield upper deck for the Walk-Off Home Run.

Bernie Williams, 1999 ALCS Game 1 – Bernie did it again, becoming the first player with 2 postseason walk-off home runs. This time it was against the Red Sox and Rod Beck.

Thurman Munson, 1978 ALCS Game 3 – For the third straight year the Yankees and Royals played in the ALCS. The series was tied at 1, and the Yankees had a 4-3 lead going into the 8th inning. Goose Gossage got hit for 2 runs in the top of the 8th, and then Thurman Munson hit a 2-run home run in the bottom of the 8th inning to take the lead back and win the game 6-5. Back then the LCS was only a 5-game series.

Honorable Mention – World Series Victories

Derek Jeter, 2000 World Series Game 4 – The Yankees won the first two games at home and then lost game 3 at Shea. People were saying momentum switched with the borough change, and then Derek Jeter hits the first pitch thrown in game 4 out for a home run, and the momentum remains with the Yankees the rest of the way.

Chad Curtis, 1999 World Series Game 3 – In the 5th inning, with the Yankees down by 4 runs, Chad Curtis his a solo home run off Tom Glavine. The Yankees creep back and tie the game in the 8th inning, and then in the 10th inning Chad Curtis hits a walk-off home run, and then insults the announcers in the interview right afterwards.

Scott Brosius, 1998 World Series Game 3 – With the Yankees down 3-0 in the 7th inning, Scott Brosius leads the inning off with a home run. In the 8th inning, with the Yankees still down the Padres bring in the NL’s best, Trevor Hoffman, and Brosius hits a 3-run home run to give the Yankees the lead, which leads to a sweep of the World Series.

Tino Martinez, 1998 World Series Game 1 – The Padres come into the series known as giant killers, having already knocked off two 100-win teams. They take a 3-run lead into the 7th inning of game 1. Chuck Knoblauch ties it with a 3-run home run, and Tino gets the lead with a Grand Slam in the 7-run 7th.

Tom Tresh, 1962 World Series Game 5 – With both the series and the score tied at 2, Tom Tresh hits three-run home run in 8th inning.

Roger Maris, 1961 World Series Game 3 – With the score tied at 2, and the series tied at 1, Roger Maris continues his dream season by hitting a top of the 9th home run to give the Yankees a 3-2 win.

Gil McDougald, 1958 World Series Game 6 - With Yankees down 3 games to 2, Gil McDougald leads off the top of the 10th with a home run. Yankees score needed insurance run later and tie the series at 3.

Mickey Mantle, 1956 World Series Game 5 – This was best known as Don Larsen’s perfect game. However, with 2 outs in the bottom of the 4th, both pitchers were throwing perfect games. Mickey Mantle ended Sal Maglie’s bid and gave the Yankees a 1-0 lead. Yankees would win the game 2-0.

Enos Slaughter, 1956 World Series Game 3 - With the Yankees down 2 games to none, and trailing with 2 outs in the 6th inning of game 3, Enos Slaughter hits 3-run home run. Without this the Yankees may not survive to get to Don Larsen’s perfect game.

Joe DiMaggio, 1950 World Series Game 2 – Joe DiMaggio hits a top-of-the tenth inning home run to give the Yankees a 2-1 win, en route to a sweep of the Phillies.

Tommy Henrich, 1949 World Series Game 1 – It was hard leaving this one out of the top 10, as it was the first postseason walk-off home run ever. Henrich hit it in the bottom of the 9th to give the Yankees a 1-0 win against Don Newcombe and the Dodgers.

Bill Dickey, 1943 World Series Game 5 - Spud Chandler throws a 10-hit shutout, allowing 13 base runners, but the only runs of the game come on Bill Dickey’s 6th inning, series clinching 2-run home run.

Babe Ruth, 1923 World Series Game 2 - After losing their first two WS appearances in 1921 and 1922 to the cross-town Giants, they face them a 3rd straight year, this time with a brand new Yankee Stadium. The Yankees lose the first game at home on a 9th inning home run by Casey Stengel. Then in game two Ruth hits a 4th inning home run to take the lead, and a 5th inning home run for good measure.

The Top 11 (I tried to get it down to 10 but just couldn’t)

11. Ruth’s 60th Home Run – Of course it was actually his own record of 59 that he beat.

10. Chris Chambliss wins the ’76 Pennant – If the Yankees went on to win the World Series this would have been much higher. Still, the walk-off home run to win the team’s first pennant in 12 years is pretty cool.

9. Mickey Mantle hits the façade - May 22nd, 1963, Mantle comes oh so close to getting one out of the Stadium. Many people say the ball was still rising.

8. Ruth, Ruth, Ruth – Most people don’t realize it, but Reggie was not the first one to hit three home runs in a World Series clinching game. Ruth did it first. In game 4 of the 1928 World Series Ruth hit a home run in the 4th to take a 1-0 lead. He then hit a home run in the 7th to tie the game (Gehrig immediately followed with a home run to take the lead), and then Ruth capped it with a home run in the 8th as well.

7. Byung-Hyun Kim’s 3 home runs allowed – I’m not a big fan of putting things in from a lost series, but oh my. With 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th in game 4, Tino Martinez hits a 2 run home run to tie the game, and just as the clock strikes midnight Derek Jeter hits the game winning home run in his Mr. November moment. Then the next night, off Kim again, with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th again, down by two runs again, Scott Brosius hits the 2 run home run to tie the game that the Yankees win in extra innings. If they had won the series, this is #1.

6. The Wholers Slider – The Braves seemed too good for the Yankees. The crushed the Yankees by a combined 16-1 score in the (meaning the Braves had won their last 5 games by a combined score of 48-2), the Yankees won game 3 behind a gutsy David Cone performance. Still they were down 6-0 in game 4, and would be facing John Smoltz in game 5 who was looking to win his 30th game of the year (24 wins in regular season, the All-Star Game, and already 4-0 in postseason). The Yankees pulled within 3. The Braves decide to not take any chances and bring their closer in in the 8th inning. He lets two guys get on, and after getting ahead in the count to Jim Leyritz, he hangs a slider. The Yankees take the momentum and run with it, winning that game in the 12th inning, and finishing the series in 6 games.

5. Bucky Dent – After having to catch up from such a gigantic hole the Yankees had dug themselves the first half of the season, it all came down to 1 game to go to the postseason. And it was the unlikeliest of heroes for the Yankees. After Bucky Dent fouls a ball off of his foot, Mickey Rivers gives him his bat (which was odd since Dent hadn’t broken his), and sure enough Dent puts it over the Monster.

4. Reggie, Reggie, Reggie – 3 Consecutive pitches, 3 home runs, the last one into “The Black”, clinch a World Series at Yankee Stadium. Not a bad day.

3. Roger Maris hits #61 – One of the unlikeliest of people to top the great Babe Ruth. Maris’ 61 still stands as the AL Record. It was so memorable, they made a movie of it.

2. Aaron Boone – It was a pennant-clinching extra inning home run, from an amazing game, the rivalry, continued the curse, and gave Boone an explicative for a middle name. This was one of the very coolest home runs of all-time. However, the Yankees did not win the World Series.

1. The Called Shot – You can argue weather he called the shot or not, but the 1932 World Series home run is legendary. Depicted (incorrectly) in paintings, the called shot is a part of American culture. Ruth had already hit a home run in the first inning. It was in the 5th inning that he gestured, sure enough hit the home run. Gehrig immediately followed with his second home run of the game too. Charlie Root, the pitcher, says it didn’t happen. Lou Gehrig said right after the game that it did. Either way, it was the World Series, and legend.

2008 Predictions

2008-02-18T01:48:00.003-05:00

Well, it should be an exciting year. By the end of 2008, all three of us will be married. Of course only I was smart enough to do it after the season is over, so I don't have any future conflicts between baseball and anniversaries.

I'm making my predictions early. And I worry about doing that as I don't get to see what happens in Spring Training. So I reserve the right to make changes, based solely on what happens this spring.

Hopefully no adjustments will be needed. Here we go:

American League East

It’s a bad time to be in the AL East if you’re not the Yankees or Red Sox. Both teams have loaded Major League rosters, and now both teams have loaded up the minor leagues as well. We’ve seen the Orioles surrender already. What else is there to do?

1st Place – New York Yankees (101 – 61)

Same team, new era. 1995, the season before Joe Torre took over as Yankee manager, the Yankees had 4 significant players make their Major League debuts; Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, and Jorge Posada. Immediately, the Yankees went on an amazing run. 13 years later, all four are in pinstripes. Now, the year before Joe Girardi took over, once again the Yankees had an amazing class of debuts, with Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy.

Can these three create the same kind of run the other 4 did? I think so.

Girardi is a much different type of manager than Torre. Torre was calm, Girardi is fiery. Both ways have their good and bad. The best thing about Torre, is his calm had allowed the Yankees of the past few years to get themselves out of huge 1st half holes. The bad about Torre is that his calm let them dig huge 1st half holes. I don’t think Girardi will be able to get the Yankees out of that kind of hole, but I don’t think he’ll need to.

I expect the Yankees to lead the majors in runs scored. Obviously, it’s impossible to expect Posada and ARod to duplicate their production from last year, although I wouldn’t put anything past ARod. I do think Posada will have a year better than his 2006 season (which was not bad at all). I think he will have the third best season of his career, now that his son his healthy. I think Johnny Damon will be better offensively this year than last, and am hoping Abreu will play hard to finish out his contract. Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano should both improve, as they’re young and getting more experience. Jason Giambi will probably be productive until he gets hurt. Hideki Matsui should be the everyday designated hitter.

This team can hit.

As far as the pitching, this is more of a question, and one nobody can answer with any surety at this point. I think the big 3 will do quite well. I think Pettitte will be about what he was last season, and Wang will be slightly better. I think Mussina will start well, but then there will be extreme inconsistency that will likely cause him to lose his rotation spot, again. On the whole, I think the rotation will be above average, and will go on a few really nice runs throughout the season. Ian Kennedy will be the most consistent of the young pitchers, and will be a guy who the team starts to rely on.

Looking at the bullpen, all I hope is the Yankees take a trial-and-error approach to it. I want the Yankees to consider any pitcher not in the Major League rotation as a possible reliever for the Major League team. That means Alan Horne, Humberto Sanchez, and all the other many live arms in the organization. Try somebody, if they don’t work, try somebody else. Most of the great bullpens throughout history have had a great amount of fluke years and luck. Trial-and-Error seems as good a way of figuring it out as can be. I think the mix is there, they just have to find it.

2nd Place – Boston Red Sox 97 – 66

For the first time (in my mind) the Red Sox come in as the team to beat. Sure they won the 2004 World Series, but they hadn’t won the division. In 2007 they did both. There are a great similarities between the philosophies of the Yankee and Red Sox, and we’ve seen that this off season.

First, they didn’t go after any big prize out there. They resisted. Their potent lineup is completely intact, with the only possible difference is if Ellsbury knocks Coco Crisp out of the lineup. Like the Yankees, their starting rotation is having young guns joining it. Lester and Buchholz will need to step up like the Yankee trio if the Red Sox are going to win the AL East.

As far as the Red Sox lineup goes, I think Jason Varitek numbers slide down. Kevin Youkilis probably gets slightly better. I would predict a similar season for Dustin Pedroia. Probably a little lower batting average, but I expect his power numbers to improve a bit. I think we’ll probably all agree that Mike Lowell’s numbers probably drop a bit. However, Julio Lugo and JD Drew should more than make that up. I would expect both of them to have numbers similar to their second half of the season numbers from 2007.

Then we have Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Manny turns 36 years old and playing for a contract. I believe that he will be more motivated and have a huge year. However, that means I’m guessing what’s going through Manny’s head, and I’m not sure anybody is qualified to do that. I think David Ortiz begins his slide this year. Not a dramatic one yet, but he’s 32 years old and gigantically huge, which I see as a negative for aging gracefully. Don’t get me wrong, I still think he’ll be the best designated hitter out there this season. However, I expect his batting average to drop and his power to stay at his 2007 level. On the whole, the Red Sox can hit.

I think the Red Sox took a big hit with losing Schilling. He averaged over 6 innings per start last season, which I don’t expect Jon Lester to do. He walked only 23 batters in 151 innings, and had a 3.87 ERA. I’m not that high on Lester, and I think Buchholz will very likely have some big ups and downs. After tearing through AA, the now-23 year old struggled a bit at AAA, before electrifying the Majors.

As far as the top 3 spots, there is no reason to think that Josh Beckett is anything other than what he was last season, a potential 20-game winner. I think Matsuzaka will be slightly better this year than last season. I was having a hard time figuring out what I think he’ll do. On the negative side, he was only 5-6 after the all-star break with a 5.19 ERA. However, one could argue that’s just getting used to a 5-man rotation. Back on the negative side, one of the things he had going for him was nobody had seen him before, and that’s not true anymore. On the positive side, he was better on the road than at home, and he’ll probably be more adjusted to pitching at Fenway Park. He was not impressive against the AL East.

4.09 vs. Tampa Bay
5.18 vs. Toronto
6.12 vs. New York
8.38 vs. Orioles

I definitely don’t see him being significantly better than last year.

Tim Wakefield pulled out 17 wins last season, but I don’t think anybody trusts him or thinks that’s likely again for the 41-year old. Is he going to stay healthy? I think one of the young pitchers needs to step up past Wakefield into the #3 spot in the rotation. If Wakefield ends the year as the #3 starter, the Red Sox won’t be able to keep pace with the Yankees.

I definitely don’t expect the Red Sox bullpen to be as good this season. I don’t think Okajima will be nearly as good. Papelbon will be just as good. But we know most relievers, except for the very top ones, after a really good year tend to drop off the next year.

3rd Place – Toronto Blue Jays (80 – 82)

If I were asked what AL East pick do I feel most confident in, it would be the Blue Jays in 3rd place. I don’t think they have nearly enough to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, and not nearly as bad as the Rays and Orioles.

The Blue Jays lineup has a lot of people who could hurt you, but also a lot of players prone to long slumps. While the Yankees and Red Sox lineups have so much consistency throughout, Alex Rios is just about the only one who you know exactly what to expect from. Does Scott Rolen have anything left? Frank Thomas isn’t getting any better. I don’t think 33-year old David Eckstein will be batting over .300 again. If the Blue Jays are to have any chance, Vernon Wells will have to hit a lot better than he did last season.

The next thing that must go right for the Blue Jays to compete is the pitching staff must stay healthy. If they stay healthy, their top 5 starters are good enough to be a starting staff for a playoff team, but health is not something this rotation can rely on. I expect a huge drop-off of the Blue Jays’ bullpen. It’s amazing how good the Blue Jays’ bullpen was without BJ Ryan last year. Who knows how healthy Ryan will be this season, but it doesn’t seem he’ll start the year on the roster. Jeremy Accardo threw 67 innings with a 2.14 ERA last year, Casey Janssen threw 73 innings with a 2.35 ERA, Scott Downs had a 2.17 ERA in 58 innings. I would be surprised if any of them duplicate that production, and they’ll need them to if they are going to have a chance.

The Blue Jays need everything to break right for them to compete in this division. With a roster that includes many injury-prone players, I’m counting the Blue Jays out.

4th Place – Baltimore Orioles (67 – 95)

This is a team without much pressure on them. They traded Miguel Tejada (at just the right time), they traded their ace, and they have no pressure to win. That’s good, as they won’t. The lineup has some veterans who know how to play the game. They know how to get some wins. Nick Markakis now the most dangerous hitter in their lineup, and while he’s good, he shouldn’t be the best player in any lineup. But with veteran hitters like Millar, Roberts, Mora, Hernandez, with Markakis, while it is a below-average lineup, they can hold off the Rays.

The pitching staff has some interesting arms, that will throw a really good game from time to time, they are going to get hit hard. The bullpen is weak, but we’ll see, maybe some of the people they acquired in trades step up in those roles.

5th Place – Tampa Bay Rays (63 – 99)

First of all they deserve to be in last place for changing their name. Taking the word “Devil” out because it was the word “Devil” was moronic. A Devil Ray has nothing to do with evil or hell (unlike the NJ Devils and nobody up here seems to care).

However, that’s not why I picked the Rays last. A lot of people have said for a lot of years, watch out for the Rays because of their up and coming talent. The only thing the Rays have ever done to get better is to finish last. They keep getting top draft picks. It hasn’t helped yet. For the 3rd time in the last 6 years, the Rays will have the #1 overall pick again this June. They’ve never picked lower than 8th, and only twice picked lower than 4th in their history. Where has it gotten them? Another first overall pick.

I’m not confident anybody in their lineup hits 20 home runs. I know Carlos Pena hit 46 last season, but let’s just say I have my doubts. BJ Upton hit 24 home runs last season, but I think the pitchers are going to make a big adjustment on him this year. If the Rays are going to get out of last place, they’re going to need Evan Longoria to not have many growing pains, to step up right away. I think he will have a pretty good rookie year. I’m not sure good enough for this team.

Then you have the rotation. Scott Kazmir is an ace. However, I think he’s on drugs as he recently was quoted as saying the Rays playing in October was possible. The 4th and 5th starters for the Rays are a nightmare. Most likely Jeff Niemann will join the rotation before long, but I have serious doubts about his head and him handling the Major League lifestyle. They made lots of changes to the bullpen, won’t matter. They’ll still be horrible, as are the Rays. I think this franchise continues to be a disgrace.

AL Central

1st Place – Detroit Tigers (93 – 69)

This team is going to try to pound there way to a division title, and I think they will. This was already a good lineup and they added Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria. I definitely do not see this team running away with anything though. The fact is Dontrelle Willis has a 5.17 ERA in the NL last season. Before Willis’ 26th birthday, the southpaw had thrown over 1000 big-league innings. Willis should be helped out some by Detroit’s pitcher-friendly ballpark, and he should have a better won-loss thanks to the Tiger lineup, but I don’t expect good results, especially the second half of the season. He should start well, but as his innings rack up, I expect his 2nd half stats to be ugly.

Jeremy Bonderman’s ERA was over 5 last year. Kenny Rogers is 43 years old. Nate Robertson has never been impressive. And the bullpen? Todd Jones is still the closer. Joel Zumaya is expected to be out until at least July. That could be the big bolster they’ll need come mid-season and be able to hold off the Indians.

2nd Place – Cleveland Indians (89 – 73)

Including the postseason, CC Sabathia pitched 256 innings last season. That could turn out to be a big problem for the Indians this year. Fausto Carmona who was 23 years old last year pitched 230 innings. The Indians pitching should be much better than the Tigers pitching, however, it might not end up being that way.

After those top two starters there is a big drop-off to Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd, and whoever gets the #5 spot. The Indians bullpen could be critical and Joe Borowski is still their closer. That leaves a lot of pressure on the two Rafaels, Betancourt and Perez, who both had great years last year (1.47 and 1.78 ERA respectively). There was no reason to think either of them would have a year like that last season, and no overly compelling reason to think they will this season. Of course there is always a chance they’ll have other surprising bullpen performers this year, and they’ll need to if they want to keep that Tiger offense in check.

The Indian lineup is good, but not scary. They have nobody in their lineup who hit 25 home runs last season. It wouldn’t be surprising if a few of them did though. This lineup can score runs, but not with the Tigers. They are going to need repeat performances from Sabathia and Carmona if they are going to be able to repeat as AL Central champions.

3rd Place – Chicago White Sox (79 – 83)

The White Sox are a little too weak in every area to compete. Offensively they are going to need both Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome to stay healthy the entire season and have big years, and that’s probably too much to ask. Dye is 34 years old, and Thome turns 38 this season.

On the pitching side, let’s just say I’m not confident in the trio of Javier Vazquez, Jose Contreras, and Mark Buehrle. All three are capable of a good season, but it’s unlikely they’ll all pull off having a good season the same year. John Danks and Gavin Floyd round out the rotation. Both had ERAs well over 5 last season. The bullpen, anchored by Bobby Jenks, will need big years from both Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel to have any kind of chance.

The White Sox do not look like a playoff team.

4th Place – Minnesota Twins (76 – 86)

Any chance the Twins had to make the playoffs went out the window with the Santana trade. Torii Hunter was a big loss, but to lose Santana and get nobody who is going to make a large impact this season ended the year before it began. Then needed a Hughes or a Buchholz to even fake having a chance.

To catch the White Sox they’ll need a good season from Delmon Young to help Morneau and Mauer. They’ll also need Francisco Liriano to return to make an amazing comeback. It’s just too hard to predict with any accuracy how he’ll do. I think Livan Hernandez was a gigantic pickup for the Twins. The top three relievers are quite good with Nathan, Neshek, and Guerrier. After that it gets pretty ugly. Livan Hernandez gives innings. In the past 10 seasons his lowest inning total was 199.2.

The Twins gave up on this season the moment they traded Santana.

5th Place – Kansas City Royals (72 – 90)

For this team to catch the Twins, they’ll need their young players, like Butler and Gordon to start producing significantly. This is not a good team or even a team that has the makings to become a good team.

The top 3 starters of their rotation, Meche, Bannister, and Greinke pitched better than expected last season, I would be surprised if they duplicate it. After those three it is a disaster. The bullpen was good last season as well. There is more of a chance of them duplicating than the starters. In the end this is just a light roster without nearly enough talent.

AL West

1st Place – Los Angeles Angels (95 – 67)

The Angels are the clearly the class of the AL West. I think they completely overpaid for Torii Hunter, but maybe not as it clearly put them way out front in their division. They have an improving offense as they have some young hitters in their infield who are getting better. They have a solid rotation. If Lackey can repeat his last season and Jered Weaver develops into a top quality pitcher (I don’t think he will) this team would be hard to stop come postseason as well. The outfield defense should help the pitching staff out a lot.

The team can hit, they have a strong rotation, and the Angels usually have one of the top bullpens, although I’m not that impressed with its current formation. K-Rod remains one of the most reliable closers in baseball.

2nd Place – Seattle Mariners (90 – 72)

If anybody is going to make a run at the Angels, it is the revamped Seattle Mariners. The Mariners made a huge move bringing in Bedard. The Mariners have a decent lineup, but they are going to need to get a lot more productivity out of Richie Sexson than they did last year. Jose Vidro batted .314 last season, it’s unlikely he’ll repeat that. Ichiro is as likely as anybody to win the batting title.

Felix Hernandez turns just 22 in April. I think he may do a little better than last year, but am wondering if the Mariners are putting too many innings on his young arm. The final three spots in their rotation are all solid, giving them a decent chance to win whenever they go out there.

The bullpen will probably be average, the key is getting the ball to JJ Putz, who has quickly become a top closer. The Mariners should be able to stay in the AL West and Wild Card race until September, but they’ll come up short.

3rd Place – Oakland Athletics (74 – 88)

The A’s are not a good team. They decided that it was better to build for the future than the 2008 season. If they are going to have any chance to have a decent season, they will need big years from recent underachievers like Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby. Despite trading their ace, they still have enough pitching to keep them from the bottom of the AL West. Blanton is a horse, and we’ll have to see about the health of the usually injured Rich Harden.

The A’s bullpen is nothing to write home about, and they’ll need Huston Street to stay healthy and effective.

4th Place – Texas Rangers (73 – 89)

As everybody knows, I hate changing my predictions too much from year-to-year. There’s one statement I never have to change when it comes to the Rangers; The Rangers have no pitching. It’s good to say that again. It feels like spring. The hitting isn’t even as good as its been in past years, this is looking to be an ugly year in Texas.

The starters are weak, the bullpen is weak, and the hitters aren't even as good. Last place.

NL East

1st Place – New York Mets (97 – 75)

Even more than the Yankees, the Mets need to win their division. That’s weird to say, but I think it’s true. The Yankees have to at least win the wild card, the Mets have to win the division. The Mets were favorites to win the division last year (and the NL Pennant), were the class of the NL East all year, and well, we know the rest. So all they did was add the best pitcher in baseball.

The Mets have star hitters with Wright, Beltran, Reyes, and Delgado to go along with a decent supporting cast. It will help the Mets greatly if Delgado has a bounce-back season, which is questionable as he’s not young.

One of the strengths of the Mets is that they have 5 starting pitchers who all had ERAs under 4 last season. I’m not a big fan of either John Maine or Oliver Perez, but to be around veteran pitchers like Santana, Pedro, and Duque can only help their development. That trio knows how to pitch. Will Pedro stay healthy for the entire season? Probably not. The Mets just need him to stay healthy enough.

The Mets also have a fairly good bullpen led by Billy Wagner.

They should be the National League’s best team, but they should have been the best team last year too.

2nd Place – Philadelphia Phillies (90 – 72)

The Phillies have momentum on their side, but not pitching. The team has a lot of power and an infield that can flat out hit, led by Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins. The rotation isn’t horrible, but Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Adam Eaton, Jamie Moyer, and Kyle Kendrick don’t come near matching up with the Mets staff. Brad Lidge doesn’t impress me as the closer. Depending on how Delgado does for the Mets, the Phillies may out-hit the Mets. But it was such a close race last season, one that the Phillies needed the Mets to collapse to win it. I don’t think they can overcome the Santana led pitching staff, and Pedro Martinez for more of the season.

3rd Place – Atlanta Braves (88 – 74)

The Braves starting pitching should keep them with a chance for most of the season. Getting Tom Glavine back means their top 3 starters will most likely combine for over 600 innings, helping keep the bullpen somewhat fresh.

While at the infield corners the Braves can get a lot of offense from Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira, and some good supporting characters, but their offense does not compare with the Mets or Phillies.

They may lose too many games at the end with Rafael Santana as the closer.

4th Place - Florida Marlins (68 – 94)

This is where it starts getting really hard. Which team is worse, the Marlins or the Nationals? I think the Nationals are worse. The Marlins have a better offense. They have some talented players including some impressive offense from the middle infield with Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez.

They are going to need Cameron Maybin to be huge if they want any chance to be better than fourth place, which I find unlikely that even that would do it. I honestly think the Marlins would be better off starting Maybin at AAA. Afterall, he’s only had 69 at bats above AA. He’ll be playing pressure free baseball, which is good considering how young he is.

The rotation is a wreck. The bullpen, which isn’t nearly as bad as the starting pitching, will get an awful lot of work. How they handle that load will be important, but could even hurt them for 2009 if it is too much of a load.

5th Place – Washington Nationals (63 – 99)

This team is a bad. I had a large feeling of NY rejects when looking over the roster. First of all, they have former Yankee prospects Nick Johnson, Christian Guzman, Wily Mo Pena, and Tyler Clippard (all projected to start or in the rotation). Then they have former Mets prospect/nutcase Lastings Milledge. On top of that they have Aaron Boone and Paul LoDuca.

Nick Johnson was hurt all of last year, which is his usual and why the Yankees traded him in the first place. They’re going to need him, and everybody else on their team to have surprisingly good seasons to finish anywhere better than 4th place, and it will be hard to not finish in last place.

The starting pitching is a disaster. The bullpen is not too bad, but it with weak hitting and bad starting pitching, it may be rare for the bullpen has any leads to protect.

NL Central

1st Place – Chicago Cubs (86 – 76)

For the third year in a row (as is usually my style), I’m picking the Cubs to win the NL Central. Once I was wrong, once I was right. I like Piniella, and I think the team is okay, which may just be good enough in this weak division. How good the offense will be will in large part in the hands of Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs have a number of positions that are not going to intimidate opposing pitchers. However, they also have an impressive trio in Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, and Aramis Ramirez. If Fukudome is able to produce, the lineup becomes that much more dangerous.

I think Carlos Zambrano will have a big year (of course I’ve said that every year of his career), and Ted Lilly and Rich Hill should be solid enough behind him. I think Kerry Wood could be a huge boost for their bullpen.

If the Cubs were in another division I would not have them in first place, but they are in the NL Central.

It’s year 100 for the team and championships.

2nd Place – Milwaukee Brewers (84 – 78)

The Brewer offense led by young Fielder, is the best in the NL Central. Rickie Weeks should have a better year than last season. The outfield has some decent pop lead by Ryan Braun.

Despite having enough hitting, any team with Jeff Suppan as their #2 starter should not win the division. The rest of the rotation is pretty weak, and to top things off, Eric Gagne is the closer. I would expect Gagne to be better than he was with the Red Sox, especially being in the National League, but I don’t think he’ll be above average as a closer anymore.

3rd Place – Cincinnati Reds (78 – 84)

At this point it could be anybody. Places 3 – 5 in the division should be pretty close. The Reds lineup is pretty mixed between good hitters and non-hitters. We’ll see, as always, how healthy Ken Griffey Jr. stays. I believe Adam Dunn is a free agent at the end of the year, so that should keep him quite motivated.

If the Reds are to finish in 3rd place, they’re going to need a lot of innings from Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang. After that they will need some good innings out of the bullpen. I have very little confidence in their #5 starter, and top pitching prospect Homer Bailey. He walked 28 and struck out 28 in 45 big league innings last season. Even in AAA he struck out less than one per inning and was walking over 4 per 9 innings.

He was great in 2006, I’m wondering if he has an arm injury, because it sure doesn’t seem like he’s about the take the big leagues by storm.

4th Place – Houston Astros (76 – 86)

The Astros really need Miguel Tejada to be rejuvenated (does that mean HGH?) being in the National League. If he hits, then they have an okay lineup with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Ty Wiggington. It’s odd to be looking at an Astros roster without Biggio or Bagwell. After Roy Oswalt, the rotation is not good. They have a couple of inning eaters with Wandy Rodriguez and Woody Williams, but not good innings.

After closer Valverde the bullpen is a bit iffy.

The division is weak enough that if they stay in the race into July they could make a midseason trade. That’s the one thing that could be a difference maker in a division as weak as this one.

5th Place – St. Louis Cardinals (75 – 87)

Albert Pujols. That’s what I like about this team. Their 4 middle infielders that will be splitting time, none of them hit more than 4 home runs last year. Basically, their 4 up-the-middle starters hit a total of 9 big-league home runs last season. Troy Glaus needs to stay healthy and Rick Ankiel needs to be a lot better than I think he is.

Adam Wainwright leads the rotation. The fact that Braden Looper is the #2, pretty much explains why I have the Cardinals in 5th place. Isringhausen is still a strong closer.

6th Place – Pittsburgh Pirates (68 – 94)

I actually put the Pirates down here in 6th place without actually looking at their roster yet. It’s hard to believe that this will be Barry Bonds’ 16th season away from Pittsburgh. Maybe they should sign him back, as they won their division (the NL East) in each of his last three seasons and they haven’t had a winning season since he left.

Unless Jason Bay regains his old form, the Pirates don’t have any hitters you really worry about. Freddy Sanchez will get his base hits, but nobody scares you.

As far as the pitching goes, they do have three starters who could combine for 600 innings, and that’s about the best thing you can say about their pitching. We’ll see if Matt Capps can handle the closer role for a full season. It shouldn’t be that hard with no real pressure situations.

NL West

1st Place - Arizona Diamondbacks (90 – 72)

The D-Backs surprised me last season. Their hitting isn’t very good, but that fits in well in this division. They made the biggest off-season move in the NL West, in the acquisition of Dan Haren. Considering the difference in the leagues, Haren should excel in the NL. Joining Brandon Webb, the next question is how healthy is Randy Johnson? If Johnson gains some of his old form, that’s a very intimidating trio for the NL.

While the hitting isn’t very good, it is very young, so it is definitely possible that a number of players will have improvements over last season.

One of the biggest determinants if the D-Backs win the division or not could come down to the closer role. They have a bunch of guys who had good years last year, but none of them has ever closed. It will be a pressure situation with them competing for the division title, so they do need to find the right person from their internal candidates.

2nd Place – Los Angeles Dodgers (86 – 76)

Unfortunately for Joe Torre, he was the organization’s biggest off-season acquisition by far. Sure they brought in Andruw Jones, but he’s coming off a year in which he batted .222 with 26 home runs and now moves a true pitcher’s park. There are enough players with high upsides, but the problem is they aren’t very likely to reach them anymore. Players like Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra, Rafael Furcal, and Jones may only have so much left.

The Dodgers best chance to make it to October, is a huge year from oft-injured Jason Schmidt. We don’t know what they’ll get from Hiroki Kuroda, but if both of them pitch well with Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, the Dodgers could beat out the D-Backs.

The Dodgers bullpen is okay. If things break right, Torre could guide them into the playoffs.

3rd Place – San Diego Padres (82 – 80)

This division will have a lot of low scoring games, and the most low scoring ones may involve the Padres. All you need to know about the Padre offense is that they added an over-the-hill Jim Edmonds to it.

The team just isn’t going to hit much, getting very little production from the outfield. However, with Peavy, Maddux, and Young leading the rotation, and a strong bullpen anchored by Trevor Hoffman, if things break okay for the Padres they should be able to spend most of the season competing for the NL West title.

4th Place – Colorado Rockies (80 – 82)

I know this is pretty rough for the defending NL Champs, but I’m not sure how they did that in the first place. They clearly have the best offense in the division, although it’s always hard to tell how good they are in Colorado. This best in the NL West offense would not hold up real well against AL East offenses (as the Red Sox can attest to).

If Jeff Francis is the ace of the rotation, and Manuel Corpas is the closer, I don’t see this team getting ahead of these other teams.

5th Place – San Francisco Giants (70 – 92)

You want to talk about a team relying on young pitching, here you go. The Giants are relying on it much more than the Yankees and Red Sox, as those teams can pound out some wins anyway. The Giants aren’t pounding out wins. Aaron Rowand is by far the team’s best hitter. After him the next highest home run total belonged to catcher Benji Molina.

The Giants need a much better year out of Barry Zito. He’ll probably pitch better than his miserable pitching from last year. Then they need big performance from Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Noah Lowry. Lowry doesn’t have nearly the upside, and the pitchers are going to have to be able to handle tough losses. They could easily pitch well and lose the game with the lack of Giant offense. There’s a good chance the bullpen won’t be tremendous help for them either. They might start pushing and have a bad season.

Bad enough for last place.

Award Winners:

AL MVP
1. Alex Roriguez
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Vladimir Guererro

Alex Rodriguez is the best player in baseball and on a playoff team, that tends to be good for an MVP Award. I don’t expect he’ll reach last season’s numbers, but a little bit less should still be good enough.

AL Cy Young
1. John Lackey
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. Josh Beckett

I’m not even a big John Lackey fan, but the outfield defense he’s about to get should keep his ERA down. They have a good offense that should keep his wins up. I think Chien-Ming Wang will lead the AL in wins, but have an ERA higher than both Lackey or Beckett.

AL Rookie of the Year
1. Ian Kennedy
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Evan Longoria

Don’t get me wrong, I think Chamberlain will be the better pitcher in the long run. However, Ian Kennedy is more polished. Chamberlain is going to challenge hitters, with his stuff he should. But it will probably mean he’ll throw and forget to pitch sometimes, and you get punished in the big leagues when you do that. Kennedy knows how to pitch. If you look at there minor league numbers last season, Kennedy out-pitched Chamberlain. The other big factor is Chamberlain is going to be held between 140 – 150 innings. Kennedy already pitched 165 innings last season. With some good luck Kennedy could win 17 games.

AL Manager of the Year
1. Joe Girardi
2. Jim Leyland
3. Terry Francona

Yup, I have Girardi in his second year managing having won the Manager of the Year twice, and in different leagues. That’s a record.

AL Batting Title
1. Ichiro Suzuki
2. Robinson Cano
3. Vladimir Guererro

AL Home Run Crown
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Manny Ramirez
3. David Ortiz

NL MVP
1. Chase Utley
2. David Wright
3. Alfonso Soriano

Utley puts up big numbers at a defensive position. He’s protected in a good lineup. He’s got a good chance to get the award.

NL Cy Young
1. Dan Haren
2. Johan Santana
3. Carlos Zambrano

I’m a little big concerned about the way Santana finished last season, and adjusting to New York doesn’t always happen so quickly. Then there is the factor of lineups they’ll be facing, and Haren won’t be facing challenging most of the time.

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Kosuke Fukodome
2. Justin Upton
3. Cameron Maybin

Well, I have two of the three in the playoffs, and I think Fukodome will have the most highlights.

NL Manager of the Year
1. Lou Piniella
2. Willie Randolph
3. Joe Torre

Okay, maybe I went a little New York heavy here.

NL Batting Title
1. Chase Utley
2. Freddy Sanchez
3. Matt Holliday

NL Home Runs
1. Ryan Howard
2. Prince Fielder
3. Adam Dunn

POSTSEASON

ALDS 1 – Yankees beat Tigers 3 – 1
ALDS 2 – Red Sox beat Angels 3 – 2

NLDS 1 – Mets beat Cubs 3 – 1
NLDS 2 – Phillies beat D-Backs 3 – 2

ALCS – Yankees beat Red Sox 4 – 2
NLCS – Mets beat Phillies 4 –2

World Series – Yankees defeat Mets 4 – 0. The Mets bring back Johan Santana on short rest in game 4, and he loses to Phil Hughes.

World Series MVP – Derek Jeter

Top 10 Red Sox Home Runs

2008-02-17T17:00:00.004-05:00

I'm blatantly stealing this from Blue Jay Way, but it's a fun idea anyway. Here's the problem, though - I'm completely biased towards 1) big home runs in my lifetime and 2) big home runs in the recent championship era. It's going to be damn hard to whittle this list down to ten, so I'll list every other one I could think of in the honorable mention section. If I missed any that you guys somehow remember, let me know.

For clarification, by "top ten" I pretty much mean "most memorable."

Honorable mention in a losing effort:
Bernie Carbo, 1975 World Series - That other home run from Game Six, the pinch-hit, three-run job off of Rawly Eastwick that tied the score at 6 in the 8th inning. They won this game of course, but, well, you know.
Dave Henderson, 1986 World Series - That Game. Hendu continued his playoff heroics by belting a Rick Aguilera pitch out of Shea to lead off the tenth. The rest of the world knows what happened next, but at that moment, Hendu could have been elected mayor of any town in New England.
David Ortiz, 2003 ALCS - the forgotten homer, and, quite honestly, the first time I ever believed that the Red Sox could beat the Yankees. Watching Game Seven from the right field upper deck at Yankee Stadium after Jason Giambi had just hit his second homer to cut the Sox lead to 4-2, I let out a subdued fist pump after Ortiz hit David Wells' first pitch into the right field seats. That was it - that was the insurance run they needed to topple the Yanks. I will always believe that, Grady Little and Aaron Boone be damned.

Honorable mention, non-playoffs:
Ted Williams vs. Orioles in '60 - The Kid homers in his final career at-bat. Can you imagine this happening with someone like A-Rod or Pujols today?
Dwight Evans vs. Tigers in '86 - Dewey sets an MLB record by homering on the first pitch of the season.
Wade Boggs in '89 all-star game - Bo Jackson and Wade Boggs go back-to-back to lead off the game. Given the phenomenon that was Bo and the fact that Boggs never really had any power, this was a big deal when I was 11.
Mo Vaughn vs. Mariners in '98 - Mo hits a walk-off grand slam in the home opener.
Trot Nixon vs. Yankees in '00 - Trot hits a two-run shot in the ninth inning at Yankee Stadium, breaking a 0-0 tie between Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens, who had likely just started to cycle. This barely misses the top ten for me.
Bill Mueller vs. Yankees in '04 - as does this one. This was the two-run walk-off that ended the A-Rod/Varitek fight game, and the symbolic turning point of the Red Sox season. It also earned Mueller the nickname "Bill Mueller, Yankee killer" (note: this nickname may have only been used in my household).
Trot Nixon vs. Yankees in '05 - the first inside-the-parker I ever saw in person.
David Ortiz vs. Twins '06 - Ortiz's 51st of the season breaks Jimmie Foxx's Red Sox record. He would also hit #52 in this game before ending up with 54.
Jason Varitek vs. Yankees in '07 - the 4th in a string of back-to-back-to-back-to-back homers off of Chase Wright.

Honorable mention, playoffs:
Manny Ramirez in '03 ALDS - a mammoth 3-run shot off of Barry Zito in Game Five that barely gave the Sox all the runs they would need to finish the comeback from being down two games to none.
David Ortiz in '04 ALCS - this was the homer in the first inning of Game Seven, after Dale Svuem got Johnny Damon thrown out by five feet at home plate for the second out. Yankee Stadium was electric after the play at the plate, and Ortiz calmly hit the first pitch he saw out of the park. This was eerily similar to the above homer off of Wells in '03.
Dustin Pedroia in '07 World Series - this one is mostly symbolic, as Pedroia led off the series with a homer on the second pitch, sparking the sweep of the Rockies.
Bobby Kielty in '07 World Series - off of Brian Fuentes, Kielty hit the only pitch he saw in the series into the left-field stands for what would prove to be the winning run in the clincher at Coors Field.

Top Ten:
10. J.D. Drew in '07 ALCS - the Sox loaded the bases in the first inning of Game Six with nobody out, but made two outs without scoring any runs. J.D. Drew strolled to the plate, as most of Fenway strolled to the concession stands, and calmly swatted a grand slam, effectively telling the Indians that they were not winning this series at Fenway Park. This home run was so unlikely that I thought nothing about abandoning the radio to switch cars in mid-at-bat. If anyone else in Red Sox history was batting in this situation, I would have stayed in the first car to hear what happened, but I was convinced Drew would make an out. In my fifteen-second transfer, I missed the slam, which is probably why I don't rank this higher. I'm still not sure it really happened.
9. Mark Bellhorn in '04 World Series - a sloppy, back-and-forth Game One went into the bottom of the eighth tied at nine, where Bellhorn slammed a Julian Tavarez pitch off of Pesky's Pole for a two-run shot and the final margin of victory.
8. Manny Ramirez in '07 ALDS - the game-winner off of Francisco Rodriguez beat the Angels in Game Two and traveled roughly 850 feet.
7. (tie) Johnny Damon in '04 ALCS - it's hard to tell which was bigger, so I'm including them both. Damon had struggled in the ALCS, but after leading off Game Seven with a single before later being thrown out at the plate, he greeted Javier Vazquez in the second inning by knocking his first pitch for a grand slam, and followed it up with a two-run, first-pitch upper deck shot, also off of Vazquez, in the fourth. The game was a rout, but Damon built the coffin with these two blasts.
6. Carlton Fisk in '75 World Series - the Game Six walk-off is a sentimental favorite, but they lost the series. I can't put this near the top.
5. Trot Nixon in '03 ALDS - Game Three was full of controversial baserunning plays, and Nixon's two-run shot in the 11th broke a 1-1 tie and kept the Sox from being swept by Oakland.
4. (tie) Troy O'Leary in '99 ALDS - like Damon above, I'm including both of O'Leary's big homers. Twice in Game Five Mike Hargrove walked Nomar Garciaparra to pitch to O'Leary. O'Leary responded with a grand slam off of Charles Nagy in the third and a three-run shot off of Paul Shuey in the seventh, the last homer breaking an 8-8 tie and giving Pedro the lead for good, capping yet another comeback from being down two games to none.
3. Dave Henderson in '86 ALCS - in the ninth inning of Game Five, the Sox trailed 5-2 and were on the verge of being eliminated by the California Angels. Anaheim cops were even circling the field in anticipation of a raucous, pre-Rally-Monkey celebration. Don Baylor hit a two-run bomb to make it 5-4, knocking starter Mike Witt out of the game. Hendu followed it up a few batters later with a two-run shot of his own off of Donnie Moore to give the Sox a 6-5 lead, which they promptly coughed up in the bottom of the inning before winning it on a sacrifice fly (by Henderson, of course) in the 11th. This game doesn't get nearly enough credit as one of the all-time great playoff games, probably because as great as this series was, it was the worst of the three in the '86 playoffs.
2. David Ortiz in '04 ALDS - the walk-off in the tenth inning of Game Three, finishing the sweep of the Angels. Ortiz hit Jarrod Washburn's first pitch the other way; a lot of these homers have been of first pitches, no?
1. David Ortiz in '04 ALCS - the walk-off in the twelfth inning of Game Four, staving off a Yankee sweep. Ortiz belted a Paul Quantrill pitch into the visiting bullpen just after midnight; it would be the first of his two walk-offs that day.

So that's 28 without doing any research (other than finding exact dates for the links). I'm sure there are more, especially from the 20th century, but these stick out. I struggled with "series-winning vs. elimination-avoiding" homers when it came to walk-offs, but Ortiz gets the top two spots pretty much because October 2004 was the most memorable time in the history of the franchise.

Craig Biggio's Cap

2008-02-17T12:48:00.002-05:00

A few years ago, when Sully and I were down in Florida and at an Astros' Spring Training Game, we were wondering what was on Craig Biggio's cap. It was a pin of some sort, and I'm not sure we ever figured out what it actually was.

The answer of what the pin was, is that it was the logo of "The Sunshine Kids", a charity that Biggio is the National Spokesman for. The foundation's goal is to add to the life of children with cancer.

The Influence of Wang

2008-02-16T06:50:00.000-05:00

I was reading about Chien-Ming Wang's arbitration case. One of the arguements his agents used was a Time Magazine article that came out last May. It was their article on the World's 100 most influential people. The list did not include George W. Bush, but did includ Chien-Ming Wang. Evidently people in Taiwaan are so wrapped up in Wang, that thier stock market goes up when he wins.

However, all of that influence was enough to incluence the arbitrators in his hearing. He'll have to settle for $4 million.

I agree with the Yankee decision to not give him a long-term deal like he wanted. As a Super-2 he got to arbitration already, but being a Super-2 just gets you there faster, not free agency. He has 4 arbitration years instead of 3. So he's locked up through 2011 right now anyway. If you have a pitcher locked up for 4 seasons, and we know how often pitchers get hurt, I don't think you can negotiate. It just doesn't make sense from a team perspective.

There's talk about starting Chamberlain in the bullpen, then sending him down to the minors to stretch out his arm, and bring him back as a starter, which would help keep him under the 140 innings they want from him during the regular season. I'm wondering how long he would have to be down to lose the service time and be locked into the Yankee organization for another season.

Very Odd, and Very Young

2008-02-10T07:39:00.000-05:00

You never think of the Yankees or Red Sox as particularly young teams. And we still won't when it comes to the offense. With Curt Schilling's injury though, and if Ian Kennedy beats out Mussina in the Yankee rotation, that leaves, of the 10 starting pitchers, just Andy Pettitte (35) and Tim Wakefield (41) as the only starters over the age of 28 for the two AL East rivals.

I bought the All-You-Can-Eat package

2008-02-09T18:59:00.000-05:00

The Staten Island Yankees package that I almost bought last season but didn't, I bought it this year. 7 games, $15 per ticket, but all-you-can-eat at all the games. That goes for hot dogs, hamburgers, chicken sandwiches, sodas, and water. Plus a free ticket to a Yankee game.

I'm in section 8, which is a little left of home plate but to the right of the dugout. I'm in row K, so I'm hoping that's the 11th row.

$50 million per year

2008-02-08T17:24:00.000-05:00

They're saying that's the amount the Yankees turned down for the new stadium's naming rights. They have decided to call it Yankee Stadium.

Wow!

If that doesn't tell you how much money they're making, I'm not sure anything does.

How about this for a releif option...

2008-02-08T16:59:00.000-05:00

Just throwing this out there, and I'm sure even if it works it won't work for long, Carl Pavano.

He threw for 12 minutes today going from as far as 90 feet. Clearly, if he doesn't get hurt during rehab (about 80% chance he does get hurt), he would be ready during the season.

He'd be ready quicker as a relief pitcher (which I'm hoping they'll do with Humberto Sanchez as well). As a reliever it also should take him longer to get hurt. If he's able to pitch 15 innings before getting injured, that would be in his 3rd start. However, if he makes it 15 innings as a reliever, if he's effective, the Yankees could have a very good reliever for a month.

Giants 17, Patriots 14

2008-02-04T09:06:00.000-05:00

I've tried to justify it. I've tried to make excuses in my head, tried to convince myself that I should have seen it coming, tried to justify that entire pathetic performance. And I can't. The better team won. There's no way around it.

I suppose I could ease my pain by convincing myself that the Pats would win that game 8 times out of 10, but what good would that do? One of those two, the only one that matters, is in the books. The Pats just finished the worst 18-1 season in history. Their place alongside the '01 Mariners is secure.

You could blame Brady's injury, but I won't. He was clearly hampered in the AFC Championship Game, but they managed to score more than 14 freaking points in that one. If you can blame anyone on the field, it's the offensive line. Ross nailed that one - the Giants' pass rushers had their way with our large, bearded white men, regardless of how much pressure they brought. I had the week 17 game playing on my TiVo early in the day while I was setting up for my party, and Cris Collinsworth commented early in the game that the Giants were pushing the Pats' O-line back into the pocket, giving Brady less room to maneuver. I didn't really remember that being a huge issue in that game, so I stopped and watched a few plays, and he was right. Granted, the Pats had a few guys out with injuries, but it was a pretty convincing effort, still. That concerned me, but probably not as much as it should have.

Of the field, a lot of the blame has to be laid at the hands of the coaches. I will spend the next seven months trying to figure out why they didn't challenge that fumble recovery in the second quarter, when a Pats D-lineman clearly had the ball in his arms and was laying flat on the ground, only to have a Giant rip it right out of his hands. He was down; it was clear as day. They forced the punt on the next play, but that mistake cost them a good 45-50 yards of field position. I'd look it up to be sure, but it would just make me more upset.

And what the hell is the point of having a kicker if you won't try a ~49 yard field goal when the alternative is going for it on 4th and ~13 (again, I don't have it in me to look up the exact numbers)? For once, I would like an actual explanation from Belicheck on that, instead of the standard non-answers that he usually gives. Those are cute when you're winning, but when you gag like that I think you owe people some explanations.

I think I feel worse for Randy Moss than I do for Junior Seau. Moss is the most talented player I've ever seen in a Patriots uniform - he transformed this team into an absolute offensive juggernaut, which was refreshing after watching a season of Reche Caldwells and Chad Jacksons. And as far as I can tell, he never complained or showed a bad attitude. He'll be tough to replace. Seau, on the other hand, missed out on capping the "Roger Clemens with the Astros" portion of his career with that elusive Super Bowl ring, instead punctuating it with a vague, grammatically-incorrect speech at the AFC coronation that would turn out to be the beginning of the end for the team. It probably would have been easier to win the Super Bowl if he had stopped holding up his middle fingers towards Miami and San Diego long enough to play the game. Please just retire... for real, this time.

As for his hilarious-at-the-time, "and now we have a chance... a chance to be part of ever..." line, you can see looking back that this was where the team started to think too much about making history. Players started thinking about the real possibility of going 19-0. You can take it one game at a time until the last game, but when you get that close, you're bound to start seeing the big picture. I think that happened to an extent, to the coaches and the players. Writers kept mentioning that they could see that players were starting to think about it. This had to affect them. It's a pretty lame excuse at this point, but it's all that I've got.

One thing that does make me a little happy is that the national media, and by that I mean ESPN, looks a little stupid in all of this. Two weeks of talk about whether this is the best team ever, whether Brady is the best QB ever, whether Belicheck is the best coach ever... can we play the game first, fellas? There's a time to debate stuff like that. It's called the off-season. You know, that time that you spend way too much time talking about the draft?

And how about the Boston Globe making a big fuss about a Tuesday parade possibly conflicting with the primary elections? This is the kind of stuff that other cities used to do, and the Patriots would use it as motivation. Now we're the ones looking ahead and taking victory for granted? Good grief.

And here's my "Breaking My Silence" moment: I'm not prepared to live in a world where the Manning family owns the NFL. Back-to-back Super Bowl MVP's? Really? We haven't been subjected to enough commercials with Archie and his smug "I was a mediocre player and I am in no way living vicariously through my sons" look? I remember a simpler time when it looked like Peyton would never even make it to the Super Bowl. I miss those days. Eli played great, hats off to him, but we will be seeing much, much more of him now. This is not a good thing.

I am happy for Tom Coughlin, though. New York was ready to run him out of town coming into this season, but he's always been a good coach, and I think he got a bum rap from the media and Tiki Barber (thinking about him also makes me happy, by the way). Good for him.

But I still can't believe they lost to the fifth seed from the inferior conference. I can't believe they only scored 14 points. I just can't believe any of it.

Anyway, congratulations, guys. The Giants earned it.

Ten days until pitchers and catchers...

Home-Grown Rotation???

2008-02-02T09:30:00.000-05:00

Will Mike Mussina be in the Yankees top 5 starters (as far as games started) in 2008?

My guess is no. I think Ian Kennedy will overtake him.

It is very possible that the Yankees top 5 starters this year will be Pettitte, Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy.

Pettitte of course left for 3 years, but is home-grown.

If these 5 do lead the Yankees in starts, it will be the first time since the Chamionship team of 1962, which had a rotation of Whitey Ford, Ralph Terry, Jim Bouton, Bill Stafford, and Rollie Sheldon that the entire staff was home-grown.

Before that is was the war years of '43 - '45 that it was all home-grown. Before that you have to go back to 1913.

This is something that hasn't happened a lot throughout Yankee history. The Yankeees are clearly building for the possibility. Obviously lots could go wrong and you only end up with 1 or 2 home grown.

However, it looks more possible than in my lifetime. The fact that the Yankees are considered top-5 in minor league talent, and have very few position player prospects says how good the pitching is right now. The Yankees don't have one infield prospect right now that projects above reserve infielder. They have 2 legit outfield prospects, some possibilities at catcher, and the rest is all pitching.

I've never seen so much agreement about a prospect (especially a prospect that's not top-3 type) throughout the scouting world as with Ian Kennedy. Everybody seems in complete agreement that he's a top of the line #3 starter. #2 on teams that don't have a #2.

Chamberlain and Hughes, makes 2 straight years where the Yankees have one of baseball's top 5 prospects (and top 2 pitching ones). Since Baseball America had been doing their Top-100 in 1990, only two different Yankee pitchers (not including Jose Contreras) ever make the top 20. Those two, Brien Taylor and Matt Drews were both still A-ball pitchers when they did, not advanced minor leaguers. If either Chamberlain or Hughes can be an ace, Wang is clearly at worst a #2, if the other one does well at all, that's 4/5 of the rotation for what could be a long time.

That leaves the #5 spot for 6'10" Andrew Brackman. He's already had Tommy John surgery, so who knows if he comes back from that at all, but he was supposed to have #1 stuff, if he can just hold down the #5 spot, the Yankees could have an all home-grown rotation for many years.

I know many things can go wrong, it's also possible that Humberto Sanchez takes and holds a rotation spot for the next 15 years, and the Yankees never have a home-grown rotation.

However, it's fun to dream of the home-grown rotation (and I like thinking of Sanchez as Rivera's setup man). So until proven otherwise, I'll continue to dream and hope that proof doesn't come too soon.

Morgan Ensberg & Bobby Abreu

2008-02-01T15:12:00.000-05:00

I really like the Morgan Ensberg move. Obviously low-risk. Decent opportunity for modest reward, and he's 32, so still a possibility to come back. He finsihed 4th for the 2005 MVP-Award, and had an injury that he played through in 2006. In '06 & '07 he batted .235 and .230, respectively.

I like this move because even if he does what he did the past two years, he can be a valuable asset to the Yankees.

Right now it looks like Giambi is the everyday first baseman, with Damon in left (where he was great last year) and Matsui as DH. Giambi has historically hit significantly better at first than at DH. Obviously if Giambi is the (almost) everyday first baseman, he'll clearly get hurt. I'm okay with that. I figure run him out there until he does, as it's the last year of his contract anyway.

If an outfielder gets hurt, you move Giambi to DH. So if either an outfielder or Giambi get hurt (clearly will happen at some point), then Wilson Betemit and Morgan Ensberg get to platoon at first base.

As bas as Ensberg was the last two seasons, it was actually pretty impressive what he did to lefties. The righthanded batter had a .925 OPS against lefties the past two seasons, seasons in which his average was in the low .230s.

Over 26-year old switch-hitting Wilson Betemit's last 3 seasons, he had an .840 OPS against righthanded pitchers. If they can both do that, that stacks up very well against any AL first baseman. Actually, other than Mark Teixeira, who left the AL before the trading deadline, only Carlos Pena had an OPS over .843 among AL first basemen. It's possible the Yankees could be well above average with a platoon of the two of them at that position.

I would really like the Yankees to go with 13 pitchers and have the bench just Ensberg, Betemit, and Jose Molina. Betemit can play all four infield positions, and the DH can cover the outfield. If somebody gets hurt you just go down to the minors for Alberto Gonzalez or Brett Gardner.

As far as Bobby Abreu goes, while I'm sure it won't happen, I'd like the Yankees to give him a 2-year contract extention right now.

Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata both look likely to join the Yankee outfield down the road. Abreu is in the final year of his contract, and Damon (as well as Matsui) have 2 years left. Ideally Jackson and Tabata replace Abreu and Damon, but I'd rather Jackson have 2 more seasons in the minors and Tabata 3 more years.

If you bring Jackson up in '09, you're looking at Jackson '09 replacing Abreu '08. He's not going to be able to do that. But if you sign Abreu for 2 more years, you're talking about a '10 Jackson replacing an '09 Damon. Followed by the next year where an '11 Tabata replaces the '10 Abreu. And obviously if either don't look ready the Yankees can cover it up with money.

Jackson and Tabata are legitimate top-tier prospects. One way of looking at it is some publications (like Baseball America) ranked them higher than Ian Kennedy. Kennedy was a 1st round pick, who in his first professional season pitched in 4 levels to a 1.90 ERA, and they're ranked higher than him.

The 20-year old Jackson batted .345 in 256 FSL at bats last year. 20-year old Jay Bruce (ESPN's #2 prospect) batted .325 in 268 FSL at bats last year. The FSL is a complete pitcher's league. Colby Rasmus (ESPN's #5 prospect) played there when he was 19 in '06, and batted .254. Last year 18-year old Tabata, playing with a broken bone in his hand, batted .307. Tabata was 5 years younger than any of the 4 batting title qualifiers who finished ahead of him.

The next highest FSL average by somebody not legal to drink was Tampa Yankee SS Reggie Carona who batted just .271.

Tabata and Jackson definitely have serious potential. But I'd rather give it a litte more time to develop, and giving Abreu 2 more years after this one would do it. It would be hard to get Abreu to sign a 2-year deal after the season, but the Yankees could probably get it done right now.

Retired Numbers: AL Central

2008-02-01T00:39:00.000-05:00

It’s about time to continue on with this series: here’s the AL West version and back story.

Cleveland Indians:
World Series wins: 2
Current retired numbers: Earl Averill, Lou Boudreau, Larry Doby, Mel Harder, Bob Feller, Bob Lemon, The Fans

Okay, seriously… The Fans? Who are you, the Orlando Magic? When did this become acceptable? Granted, 455 straight sellouts is impressive, but come on. Basically what you’re saying is that you’re just as successful as, but draw better than, the Atlanta Braves. Well, what similarly successful team doesn’t draw better than the Braves? Is this really the bar that we’re setting?

(Shaking head…)

Back to the point, only two titles doesn’t leave much wiggle room, especially based on the potential hall-of-famers who played in Cleveland in the mid- to late-90’s. Of those above, I would only retire Bob Feller now, and hope that the current young core can win a title or two in the next five years to allow the latitude to retire someone else. Of the others, Mel Harder’s not in the Hall and wasn’t even that good, so he’s out. Boudreau, Doby, Lemon, and Averill are all in the Hall, and I’d rank them in that order if the team ever earns more slots. Of other Indians Hall of Famers, how the hell are Tris Speaker and Nap Lajoie not retired? That’s utterly ludicrous. I don’t even know who I would choose first to fill the second slot out of those two, that’s how freaking good they were. At gunpoint, I’d probably have to pick Lajoie, if only because the team was actually called the Naps for three years because of him. That seems like kind of an important fact in franchise history.

From those 90’s teams, Manny Ramirez is better known as a Red Sock, and Roberto Alomar as a Blue Jay/Oriole. Jim Thome could be an issue, but I think, right or wrong, the steroid stigma could follow him through retirement, and he may never end up in the Hall of Fame. Albert Belle’s hall candidacy is debatable, but I can see why, from a P.R. standpoint, you wouldn’t want to retire him. Omar Vizquel is absolutely not a Hall of Famer, but his candidacy is being debated anyway, for some reason. It is, of course, worth noting that none of these guys ever won a World Series in Cleveland.

The verdict: Retire Feller and Lajoie, and if you win the World Series this year, immediately retire Tris Speaker. Like, if you clinch the series at home, do it during the post-game celebration.

Detroit Tigers:
World Series wins: 4
Current retired numbers: Ty Cobb, Charlie Gehringer, Hank Greenberg, Willie Horton, Al Kaline, Hal Newhouser
Current “Honored Names”: Mickey Cochrane, Sam Crawford, Ernie Harwell, Harry Heilman, Hughie Jennings, George Kell, Heinie Manush

I like what the Tigers do with their “honored names” here. It’s like having a second tier of great but not immortal players. A lot of teams have their own individual halls of fame for this, but if they’re anything like the Red Sox’, then they’re all easier to get into than Dunbar’s.

Ty Cobb is a given. I don’t care if he never had a uniform number - if you can’t retire a spot in franchise history for Ty Cobb, regardless of his, um, social flaws, then you might as well move the team.

Beyond Cobb, the other no-brainer is Al Kaline. After that, there are two spots for Greenberg, Gehringer, and an open number for the future. Newhouser was a borderline Hall of Famer, in my opinion, and Horton’s not even in, so they’re out. It doesn’t look like Trammel or Whitaker will get into the Hall, and nobody on the team now who’s good enough is really a lifelong Tiger. The team itself is good enough to win another title soon, though, so it’s relatively safe to use all four.

The verdict: Retire Cobb, Kaline, Greenberg, and Gehringer.

Washington Senators/Minnesota Twins:
World Series wins: 3
Current retired numbers: Harmon Killebrew, Tony Oliva, Kent Hrbek, Rod Carew, Kirby Puckett

This one is tough; do you include the Washington years? The Twins franchise right now is just so distanced from that era, it seems strange. But since the original Senators won one title and have one icon worthy of the honor, I think it makes sense to use the first slot for Walter Johnson.

Now the Twins years get tougher. You have to do Killebrew, but then who? It actually made me laugh to see Hrbek’s name on this list – there’s just no justification for that, honestly. That’s a Boston Bruins move right there. Oliva also isn’t a Hall of Famer, so see you later. The last spot is tough; Carew was a better player than Puckett, and he had a longer career. Puckett, though, played his entire career in Minnesota, won two titles, and gets the sympathy vote. Luckily they traded Santana, so we don’t have to worry about keeping a number open for him and we can use that third slot pretty safely. I’d pick Carew by a hair for the last slot, but I wouldn’t envy the person who had to make this decision.

The verdict: Retire Johnson, Killebrew, and Carew, then lock yourselves in the Metrodome to hide from the pissed off Kirby Puckett fans.

Chicago White Sox:
World Series wins: 3
Current retired numbers: Nellie Fox, Harold Baines, Luke Appling, Minnie Miñoso, Louis Aparicio, Ted Lyons, Billy Pierce, Carlton Fisk

See, this is why we need to establish some standards when it comes to number retiring. The White Sox had eight iconic players? Really? Right away, we can cut it down to five by getting rid of non-Hall-of-Famers Baines, Miñoso, and Pierce. The glaring omission is Eddie Collins, but of course I’m an idiot and already retired him as a Philadelphia Athletic, even though he spent 12 years with the White Sox and was on the 1917 World Series team. The good news is that if I take him away from the A’s, that opens a spot for Lefty Grove or Jimmy Foxx, who I stupidly left off originally. I don’t much care for the Philadelphia A’s. They confuse me.

So, here’s an executive decision to retire the best second baseman ever (according to Bill James) as a White Sock, leaving two spots. Ross was pretty adamant when we discussed this that Frank Thomas has to be one, and I don’t disagree, so we can leave a slot open for him. That leaves one more from this mess: Fox, Appling, Aparicio, Lyons, and Fisk.

You can eliminate Fox and Aparicio because Appling was much better than both of them and also a middle infielder. Lyons was a pretty good pitcher who walked more guys than he struck out over his career (seriously), so I have to take him out. Fisk is tough because it’s debatable whether or not he belongs to the Red Sox. He’s got more years in Chicago, but they’re decline years, and of course he’s known most for Game Six in ’75. My gut tells me he belongs to Boston – please let me know if I’m just being a homer. That leaves Appling.

The verdict: Retire Collins and Appling, and keep a spot open for Frank Thomas when he’s done stealing money from the Blue Jays.

Kansas City Royals:
World Series wins: 1
Current retired numbers: George Brett, Dick Howser, Frank White

This one is simple. There’s one Royal in the Hall of Fame, and it’s George Howard Brett.

The Royals, by the way, have 22 people, including Ewing Kaufman’s wife, in the Royals Hall of Fame. Come on.

The verdict: Retire Brett.

BP Top 100 Prospects

2008-01-31T12:22:00.000-05:00

They're up.

Top 5:

1. Jay Bruce, of, Reds
2. Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
3. Evan Longoria, 3b, Rays
4. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
5. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers

From our teams:

2. Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
4. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
16. Jacoby Ellsbury, of, Red Sox
34. Ian Kennedy, rhp, Yankees
47. Austin Jackson, of, Yankees
48. Jose Tabata, of, Yankees
51. Fernando Martinez, of, Mets
53. Justin Masterson, rhp, Red Sox
57. Jed Lowrie, ss, Red Sox
60. Ryan Kalish, of, Red Sox
67. Alan Horne, rhp, Yankees
95. Michael Bowden, rhp, Red Sox
100. Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox

I'm biased, of course, but I was surprised to see Fernando Martinez that low, even though he didn't have that great of a season. Is he really a (slightly) worse prospect than Austin Jackson?

Super Bowl

2008-01-30T15:03:00.000-05:00

Okay, I'm going to talk about the Super Bowl, and probably make my prediction by the time I'm done writing this.

There are three questions I feel need to be asked:

1) Who is the better team?
2) What reasons are there that the worse team could win?
3) How likely are they to happen?

Question number one is a very easy one to answer. The Patriots are the better team. It's impossible to not see that.

So that brings us to "what reasons are there teh Giants could win?"

I see two reasons.

1) Dumb luck. Things like a receiver gets hit while trying to make a catch, it happens to pop up in the air and right into another defesnive player's hands. A bad call at a bad time of the game in the wrong part of the field. A turnover inside the 10 on a punt return.

Clearly, this is not a good enough reason to pick the Giants. The luck could go the other way, and then we're looking at a very one-sided game.

2) Brady's health. This is no small factor, but also one that we have no idea what the answer is. What we do know is that he's not 100%. We also know, that if he plays the way he did in the AFC Championship Game, (3 interceptions), the Giants could definitely win the game.

Due to this, I see as the key matchup (by far), the Patriot Offensive Line versus the Giant Defensive Line. Both are very talented units.

None of this even matters if Eli Manning is not able to replicate his other postseason performances. He's done an excellent job of not being stupid. He needs to continue that.

What reasons could the Giant Defensive Line win this matchup?

Well, the Giants did a much better job of putting pressure on the QBs of their three playoff opponents in the second half than the first. That showed a great ability to adjust. Both teams have great coaching staffs that can make adjustments. In the second half of these games, the Giants, even when not getting sacks, had the quarterbacks on the ground often, taking some decent hits. The fact that these two teams played right before the playoffs began may mean the Giants can figure it out before half-time, maybe even as the game begins.

The fact is, Brady is the most important person in the game. If Brady is 100% healthy, the Giants have no better than a 10% chance of winning this game.

However, I'm guessing Brady is not healthy. The Giants will have to be bold, and blitz right out of the gate, and hope Brady doesn't beat them. Hope that his health is bad enough that he doesn't make it into a big play, and they continue to beat him up. If they do that, they can win, and will win.

If the Patriot offensive line is able to stop the Giant blitz and give Brady enough time, the Giants lose.

Here's hoping for a not-healthy Brady:

Giants 24
Patriots 20

Quick thoughts on Santana Trade as my class is taking a Quiz

2008-01-30T08:40:00.000-05:00

Big Winner: The Mets

The prospects they gave up, I'd be surprised if any of them make an all-star team. The Mets needed this. Clearly there is a big risk involved, as signing a pitcher for (most likely) 7 years at that kind of money is a dangerous proposition, but it had to be done.

Assuming the end of last season was just a fluke for Santana (probably was) and he hasn't fallen off at all, he clearly is the front runner already for the Cy Young Award. Going to the NL should only make him better. Pitching in Shea should only make him better. The Mets have, once again, made themselves into preseason favorites, and didn't even give up Martinez to do it. If they had to give up those 4, and Martinez, I think they still should have done it.

Winners, but just by a little bit: Yankees and Red Sox

Neither of them wanted to make the deal. I was having painful thoughts about giving up Hughes and I really like Melky. I've been dreaming of a Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy trio with Wang. Look at what the run the Braves had starting it with 3 young pitchers, and the Yankees will always have better hitting than those Braves teams did.

The Yankees and Red Sox are both spending a lot of money on the farm systems. They are both trying to build that way, and $20+ million per season is a lot of farm system.

Big Loser: The Twins

I don't believe the Yankees and Red Sox were never really in it. I think the Twins wanted the best NL offer possible. I think they were having nightmares about facing Santana for many years to come. I truly believe they did not take the best deal they could have gotten, just to get him out of the American League. The Twins got ripped off for the best pitcher in baseball.

Big Week for New York

2008-01-29T16:44:00.000-05:00

Let's hope that this is just the first big sports event for New York this week. It's a fair amount of the Mets' farm system for essentially one season (I know they'll only make the deal if they sign him to an extension, but they'll be paying the going rate for those years). Still, they didn't give up Fernando Martinez, who is hopefully not the next Alex Escobar. This makes me wonder if neither the Yankees or Red Sox were really in this, and both teams were just trying to keep Santana away from the other. On the surface, the Mets' package doesn't look as good as the ones the Yankees and Red Sox offered.

Kevin Mulvey always reminded be of "mulva" from Seinfeld, so I'm happy to get rid of him...

The New York Catcher Debate

2008-01-25T11:27:00.000-05:00

In Ross' all-New-York team post, there was a debate over who the catcher should be. Ross chose Bill Dickey, but there was some sentiment - posted (by Warren) and not posted (by me) - that Yogi Berra might be a better choice. According to this list of the top 20 offensive catcher seasons in Yankee history, Bill Dickey has five of the top seasons and three of the top four. Yogi Berra's only in the top ten twice, topping out at number five. Berra does have four seasons in the 11-20 range, where Dickey has none, so you could make the argument that Berra had the better long-term career, but Dickey clearly had a better peak/higher ceiling. So if the Dickey on Ross' team is the 1936-1939 Dickey, you can't really argue that he's the right choice.

Incidentally, Jorge Posada's 2007 is third on the list, and he has three in the top ten and five total in the top 20. As unlikely as it may be, if he can have one more season even close to what he did last year, you can start talking about him in Yogi territory.

Super Bowl XLII

2008-01-21T00:04:00.000-05:00

I didn't realize you were a Giants fan, Warren (I know Ross is)... that makes the Super Bowl even more fun. Shall we place a friendly wager? A little competitive smack talk might help pass the time until pitchers and catchers report.

Go Pats.

Third Tynes the Charm

2008-01-20T23:36:00.000-05:00

Dear Lawrence Tynes,

Thank you for not being our very own Scott Norwood. We've had enough choking for one year.

Love,
Mets/Giants Fans

HGH

2008-01-12T18:21:00.000-05:00

With everything that's happened, baseball players can still use HGH as long as they don't get caught purchasing it or with it on them. There is still no test being used for HGH. So if you can get your hands on it without getting caught, using it is not the problem.

Of course, now if you get caught getting it, that's a 50 game suspension.

Steroids is being tested for and is harder to get. HGH is still very easy to buy on the Internet.

What if I find out where David Ortiz lives during Spring Training. I'm sure that's not too hard to do. Then I go online, purchase HGH, and have it sent to his place. I put in annonymous phone calls to the FBI, MLB's new investigative department, Sports Illustrated, and the Daily News, telling them I'm an employee of the company that shipped it out, and when it should be arriving.

Could I get David Ortiz suspended for 50 games and have his reputation ruined forever? If I were still working in a hotel, it would be very easy for me to wait until I had a guest from Boston come in, and use their Credit Card information.

Without having accurate testing, everybody is at risk.

Young Trio

2008-01-11T18:43:00.000-05:00

It's rare to have a young trio of top pitching prospects all breaking into a rotation at the same time. Depending on how long Mussina can hold off one of the Yankees' big three, chances are all three will be a prominent part of the Yankee rotation.

I was able to think of three other recent teams to do this.

The 1990 Braves
The 1996 Mets
The 2000 Athletics

I decided to not include the 2006 Marlins, even though their young pitchers pitched quite well that season. The reason I didn't include them was because the Marlins were really playing their AAA team in the Majors. The three above teams all chose to use their three young pitchers because they thought they were truly big-league ready.

The '90 Braves
Steve Avery - 20 Years Old (1st Round, 3rd overall Pick)
John Smoltz - 23 Years Old (22nd Round pick of Tigers)
Tom Glavine - 24 Years Old (2nd Round Draft Pick)

Steve Avery was baseball's top prospect according to Baseball America coming into the season. This is a little differrent as Glavine and Smoltz had significantly more innings under their belt than any of this Yankee trio. Smoltz threw over 200 innings in '89 and Glavine topped 185 in both '88 & '89. Avery was brand new to the Majors. Still, the young trio didn't overly impress during the 1990 season. Smoltz had the best year going 14-11 with a 3.85 ERA. Glavine was 10-12 with a 4.28 ERA. Avery was 3-11 with a 5.64 ERA.

Veteran Presence on Team: Charlie Liebrandt

Result: Last Place, but quite a turnaround by 1991

The '96 Mets
Paul Wilson - 23 Years Old (1st Overall Pick)
Jason Isringhausen - 23 Years Old (44th Round, Draft and Follow, signed in May)
Bill Pulsipher - 22 Years Old (2nd Round Pick)

This is the better comparison, experience-wise. Isringhausen pitched 14 games in '95, Pulsipher 17, and Wilson none. Pulsipher had a 3.98 ERA during the '95 campaign while Isringhausen went 9-2 with a 2.81 ERA (although struck out just 55 batters in 93 innings). In 1995 Pulsihper and Isringhausen were Baseball America's 12th and 37th top prospects, respectively. Paul Wilson was #2 in 1996.

The trio completely flopped. Pulsipher was hurt in Spring Training and missed the entire season (and season after that). Paul Wilson went 5-12, while Isringhausen went 6-14.

Veteran Presence on Team: Pete Harnisch

Result: 71-91, 4th Place in NL East

The '00 A's
Tim Hudson - 24 Years Old (6th Round Draft Pick)
Mark Mulder - 22 Years Old (1st Round, 2nd overall Pick)
Barry Zito - 22 Years Old (1st Round, 9th overall Pick)

Of the three, only Tim Hudson had been tested in the big leagues. Hudson, who never made Baseball America's Top 100, went 11-2 in 1999. Mulder was #12 on the list that year, and Zito was #41.

Hudson picked up right where he left off in '99 and won 20 games. Mulder went 9-10 with a 5.44 ERA. Zito came up for the second half and went 7-4 with a 2.72 ERA.

Veteran presence on team: Kevin Appier

Result: First Place after a weak first half of the season. By 2002, all three had become 20-game winners, and the A's made their 3rd straight playoff appearance.

The '08 Yankees
Joba Chamberlain - 22 Years Old - (Supplemental Pick - 41st Pick Overall)
Phil Hughes - 22 Years Old (not until June) - (1st Round, 23rd Pick Overall)
Ian Kennedy - 23 Years Old - 1st Round, 21st Pick Overall)

All three of them had a cup of coffee, with Phil Hughes even picking up a postseason win, giving up just 1 run in 5.2 innings, of 0 walk, 6 K ball. Chamberlain ran into his only big-league trouble in the postseason, although it had nothing to do with the other team's ability to hit. He should still have some confidence with his 0.38 ERA from the bullpen. Kennedy pitched to a 1.89 ERA in his 3 starts. Hughes topped out at #4 on Baseball America's list, as Chamberlain probably will as well, and Kennedy somewhere on it.

Veteran Presence: Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina

There are two big advantages the Yankee trio has over the past combinations. One, is obviously the veteran presence. The second is that they've experienced a pennant race and the postseason. They wouldn't have even gotten to the postseason without them. Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera went to the postseason in 1995, and in '96 they finished #2 & #3 for the Cy Young Award, respectively. Pettitte topped out at #49 on Baseball America's list, and Rivera never made it.

Of the other three teams, only Paul Wilson and Bill Pulsipher never became All-Stars. I like the Yankees chances going forward with these three.

All New York Team

2008-01-10T21:46:00.000-05:00

Back in 1999 MLB announced its "All-Century Team". Since it's the off-season and I'm bored, I decided to do the "All New York Team". For their All-Century team they first chose 100 players, fans voted and the top 25 became the team, with a panel of experts chosing 5 more to make it 30.

A team really only has 25, but choosing 100 from a single city to start with is a lot, so I'm going to do it a little differently. I will also have 30 people, it will be 25 players and a 5 person coaching staff. So managers are included in the 100.

This is not a weak list. Of the 100 people only 22 are eligible but not in the Hall of Fame.

So first, here's the 100 people that I decided to start with:

*Signifies Hall of Famer

Catchers
Yogi Berra*
Roger Bresnahan*
Roy Campanella*
Gary Carter*
Bill Dickey*
Buck Ewing*
Elston Howard
George Kelly*
Thurman Munson
Mike Piazza
Jorge Posada

1st Base
Roger Connor*
Lou Gehrig*
Keith Hernandez
Gil Hodges
Don Mattingly
Johnny Mize*
Bill Terry*

2nd Base
Frankie Frisch*
Joe Gordon
Tony Lazzeri*
Willie Randolph
Jackie Robinson*

Shortstop
Dave Bancroft*
George Davis*
Travis Jackson*
Derek Jeter
Pee Wee Reese*
Phil Rizzuto*
John Montgomery Ward*

3rd Base
Wade Boggs*
Fred Lindstrom*
Graig Nettles
Alex Rodriguez
David Wright

Outfield
Earle Combs*
Joe DiMaggio*
Rickey Henderson
Monte Irvin*
Reggie Jackson*
Wee Willie Keeler*
Mickey Mantle*
Roger Maris
Willie Mays*
Bob Muesel
Jim O'Rourke*
Mel Ott*
Babe Ruth*
Duke Snider*
Darryl Strawberry
George Van Haltren
Zach Wheat*
Bernie Williams
Dave Winfield*
Ross Youngs*

Starting Pitchers
Jack Chesbro*
Roger Clemens
David Cone
Whitey Ford*
Lefty Gomez*
Dwight Gooden
Burleigh Grimes*
Ron Guidry
Waite Hoyt*
Carl Hubbell*
Catfish Hunter*
Tim Keefe*
Jerry Koosman
Sandy Koufax*
Rube Marquard*
Christy Matthewson*
Joe McGinnity*
Don Newcombe
Herb Pennock*
Andy Pettitte
Allie Reynolds
Amos Rusie*
Tom Seaver*
Dazzy Vance*
Mickey Welch*
Joe Williams*

Relief Pitchers
John Franco
Goose Gossage*
Sparky Lyle
Tug McGraw
Jesse Orosco
Mariano Rivera
Hoyt Wilhelm*

Mananagers
Walt Alston*
Leo Durocher*
Ned Hanlon*
Miller Huggins*
Davey Johnson
Billy Martin
John McGraw*
Joe McCarthy*
Wilbert Robertson*
Casey Stengel*
Joe Torre

My Roster
Lineup:
SS - Derek Jeter
3B - Alex Rodriguez
RF - Babe Ruth
1B - Lou Gehrig
DH - Mickey Mantle
LF - Willie Mays
CF - Joe DiMaggio
C - Bill Dickey
2B - Jackie Robinson

Bench:
C - Yogi Berra
C - Roy Campanella
1B - Bill Terry
IN - Tony Lazzeri
OF - Mel Ott
OF - Duke Snider
OF - Reggie Jackson

Starters:
Christy Matthewson
Whitey Ford
Lefty Gomez
Tom Seaver
Carl Hubbell
Red Ruffing

Relievers:
Mariano Rivera
Goose Gossage
Hoyt Wilhelm

Coaching Staff
Manager - Joe McCarthy
Hitting Coach - John McGraw
Pitching Coach - Joe Torre (he was a catcher)
1st Base Coach - Casey Stengel
3rd Base Coach - Miller Huggins

In the end I decieded to go with just three relief pitchers as only these three deserved to be on a team with names this great. So many Hall of Famers (1st ballot as well) did not make the team, it didn't feel right to take relievers so much worse just because they're relief pitchers. (MLB's All-Century didn't have any relievers).

Catching up

2008-01-09T09:09:00.000-05:00

I've been putting off writing about the whole steroids issue until I have time to really sit down and think about what I'm going to write. Clearly that's never going to happen, so I'm just going to do some stream-of-consciousness. What the hell - it's a blog.

I agree with Sully that had the Mitchell Report not included any names, there's a good chance we would have already stopped talking about it at this point. And it is true that the Report is just that - a report of what people said, not an absolute proof of guilt in a court of law. It is unfortunate that these guys could have been lying about some or all of the players, so I am a bit conflicted about it.

My theory about Clemens (and some of these other guys as well), is that it's possible that McNamee and Radomski were lying, but that the players took steroids anyway without those guys' knowledge. Even if Clemens is telling the truth that McNamee never injected him with steroids, that doesn't mean he never took them. At this point, I just assume everyone was using.

I think this idea that the culture of steroids was pervasive throughout baseball helps Barry Bonds. When people look back on the steroid era, I suspect they'll see it as something that swept over all of baseball, including many of the pitchers that Bonds faced. But that might be wishful thinking - even with Clemens' name coming out, Bonds is still the (giant) face of the scandal, and the fact that he's a jerk doesn't help his cause.

The Mitchell Report add yet more evidence that, despite people's imaginations, pitchers used PEDs as much or more than hitters did. Yet it still seems like the public's wrath is focused on the Popeye-like hitters. I think people find guys like Bonds and McGwire just unnaturally freaky, but it's harder to get worked up over the builds of guys like Gagne and Clemens, even though these guys are monstrous in person. (Everyone of course is humongous when you're a kid, so it didn't really dawn on me how huge even seemingly "normal-sized" baseball players are until I saw Turk Wendell up close during spring training one year. He was immense.) But it's certainly possible that not only did more pitchers use PEDs than hitters, but that its effects are more important for pitchers. I think we're still stuck in this belief that the biggest problem was the "giant sluggers hitting 500-foot home runs".

Poor Humberto Sanchez

2008-01-08T23:20:00.000-05:00

Baseball America came out with its top 10 Yankee prospects, and Humberto Sanchez didn't make the top 10. This was the biggest surprise to me. Clearly they must think that the Tommy John surgery will have an extreme negative impact on him.

Last season he didn't make a top-10 list either, but that was just logistical. He got traded to the Yankees after they had come out with the Yankee top-10 list and before they came out with the Tiger top-10 list.

One can reasonably assume he was #3 on the Yankees top 10 list last year as he was #57 on the top 100 prospects, behind Philip Hughes (#4) and Jose Tabata (#27), and ahead of Joba Chamberlain (#75). Hughes is no longer eligible, and not surprisingly Joba topped the Yankee list. For Sanchez to sink due to the surgery is natural, to sink out of the Yankee top-10, I don't see why. The Yankees do have a much better system than in previous years, but I don't think good enough that Sanchez isn't even in their top-10 prospects anymore.

I think I can say, without doubt, that the Yankees will have in the range of 4-6 prospects when Baseball America comes out with their top 100. #7 on the Yankee list is Jeff Marquez (although this is where I think Sanchez should be slotted), and I don't see Marquez as one of Baseball's top 100 prospects, and #4 is Ian Kennedy, and I don't see anyway possible that he wouldn't be top 100 considering he was a 1st round pick who pitched to a 1.90 ERA at four levels last season, including a 1.89 ERA in the big leagues.

That means to me that Chamberlain, Austin Jackson, Jose Tabata, and Kennedy will definitely be there, with Alan Horne and Jesus Montero as possibilities.

#8 with Brett Gardner, #9 was Ross Ohlendorf and #10 was Andrew Brackman. Brackman is also coming off of Tommy John surgery. I would put Brackman ahead of 7 through 9 (although behind Sanchez). Also I would have preferred to have seen catcher Francisco Cervelli over a guy like Brett Gardner.

I don't like Garnder being in the top-10 as he really projects to be a 4th outfielder, and the Yankees have more than 10 prospects that project better than that. One could argue he deserves it due to the fact that the other high-end prospects also have a much larger downside too. Gardner could be a 4th outfielder on many teams right now, Cervelli, who has a much higher upside, probably couldn't catch for any major league team yet.

I still think everybody is still underestimating David Robertson. Keep that name in mind as I expect by 2009 for him to be the primary setup man to Rivera.

Defaming McNamee???

2008-01-03T19:51:00.000-05:00

McNamee's lawyer is saying that depending on what Clemens says in his 60 minutes interview, that they will be considering pressing charges against Clemens for defamation.

I don't exactly see how defamation is possible.

Clemens is going to call McNamee a liar.

There is no question this is true. Either he lied all the times he said he never gave Clemens steroids or HGH, or he lied when he said he did give them to him. Either way we know he lied.

Right now McNamee's reputation is that of liar, drug pusher, and guy who gave a woman date rape drug and sexually assaulted her (although not convicted of that charge).

How can anybody defame this guy?

Sid Fernandez?

2007-12-21T09:25:00.000-05:00

This is hysterical. The Radomski affidavit was also unsealed, and names on it that weren't in the Mitchell report are Sid Fernandez, Pete Rose, Jr., and two journeyman minor leaguers who have been out of baseball for years. Sid Fernandez bought $3,500 worth of something from Radomski in 2005, only eight years after he retired. I don't want to speculate, but that seems pretty strange.

Junior Rose distributed date rape drugs to help minor leaguers sleep, apparently. That doesn't completely egg the face of his dad, who a few days ago said that PED use was worse than betting on your own team, but it doesn't help.

The only connection to Pettitte and Clemens is Radomski saying that he sold PED's to McNamee, who was described in the affidavit as being their trainer at the time.

The Real Grimsley Eleven

2007-12-20T22:42:00.000-05:00

Well, I'll say it. I was wrong. I rushed to believe the first list of released names on the Grimsley Affidavit, and it turns out a lot of those names were wrong, namely Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, Brian Roberts, and Jay Gibbons. Here are the details of the actual affidavit.

I really hope that whoever it was at the L.A. Times that published that first list gives up his faulty source, or at least admits that he, um, made some mistakes in his reporting.

How does this affect the Mitchell Report? It's hard to say. As wrong as the original Grimsley report was, Pettitte, Roberts, and Gibbons have since admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs. This new information is definitely good news for Clemens, but given that the other three are guilty to some degree, and that the same guy that told the truth about Pettitte also accused Clemens, it still doesn't look good. I still believe McNamee, but not as much; last week I would have thought there was a 5% chance that Clemens was clean, but now I'd say it's closer to 15%.

Peter Gammons

2007-12-19T16:20:00.000-05:00

Full disclosure – I love Gammons. I’ve never tried to hide that fact, even though a lot of people see him as biased and slow to adapt. I grew up reading him every Sunday in the Boston Globe, kept reading him on ESPN until they Insidered him, and always looked forward to his Diamond Notes on SportsCenter. As unwatchable as Baseball Tonight is now, if I happen upon it while flipping channels, I’ll keep it on if Gammons is on the set. More than anyone else in the media, he made baseball fun for me to follow.

Now… all of that being said, his response to the Mitchell Report, both on screen and in print, has been insulting. I’m not even exaggerating; I’m literally insulted by the way he dismisses baseball’s steroid problem and blames everyone but the dirty players. His follow-up column to the Mitchell Report (it’s Insider, so I have to admit that I haven’t read the whole thing – for details, check here) reads like the minutes from a support group meeting. Woe is he! Everything is just so unfair!

Gammons contends that the “sewer rats” who spoke to Mitchell – McNamee and Radomski – and their sordid tales of drug dealing and injecting, are not to be trusted. Why is that, exactly? Who else should we be asking to explain baseball’s drug culture to us? If you want to know about drug use and trafficking, you can ask two parties: the user, or the dealer. Well, the users seem pretty well content to give us “no comments” and half-truths, so our options for substantive information are pretty much limited to the dealers.

And even if the users were to speak freely, the dealers have a more intimate knowledge of the drugs and the drug culture than anyone. If you’re a player, you can get a dealer’s name and a phone number from someone, send them a check, get your pills and needles in the mail, and go off and take your drugs, oblivious to the enormity of what just happened. You don’t have to think about everything behind-the-scenes: the illegal prescriptions, the sources behind the sources, the health risks. If you convince yourself that you’re just taking vitamins and training hard, eventually it becomes true to you.

The dealers know what they’re doing. They’re aware of all of the illegalities and side effects, the pitfalls and the perils. Does it make them good people? Of course not. But it makes them knowledgeable sources, and whether they’re “gym rats” or “clubhouse guys” does nothing to change that. Nobody likes Jose Canseco, and everyone dismissed his initial claims about individual use and the widespread nature of the problem. Guess what, Peter? He was right! He’s been right all along, and your precious baseball institution, instead of listening to him and acting, blackballed him and slandered him, because he was a no-good, boat-rocking, steroid-using “sewer rat.”

Gammons bitches about hearsay testimonials from the sewer rats, but he saves his best for Larry Bigbie, claiming that he fingered Brian Roberts “without evidence of any wrongdoing whatsoever.” Roberts told Bigbie that he tried steroids once. Bigbie told Mitchell what Roberts said. Mitchell printed it. It seems that Gammons has decided, despite his unwavering trust in the judgment and honesty of dirty players, not to trust Larry Bigbie. This conversation that he had with Roberts is not “evidence,” apparently. Bigbie either imagined the entire thing, or made it up for no good reason. That makes perfect sense.

Disregarding the incredible idiocy that it would take to defend Roberts before he had even commented on the matter, Roberts was named (or at the very least, allegedly named) by Jason Grimsley, along with five other guys of whom you may have heard: Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Miguel Tejada, Jay Gibbons, and David Segui. All five of them were also named by Mitchell. Segui admitted that he was in the Grimsley affidavit, and also to using HGH and steroids before the Mitchell Report was even released. Gibbons was linked to Signature Pharmacy, suspended by MLB, and eventually admitted to using HGH. Rafael Palmiero and was linked to Tejada, and Canseco named him as a "suspected" juicer in his book. That’s a lot of smoke surrounding a guy to whose defense Gammons just couldn’t wait to jump.

Not surprisingly, Roberts used the company “I only did it once and felt bad about it right away” line and admitted that he tried steroids, just as the report said he had. Gammons hasn’t been heard from again on the matter.

All of this is bad, but the money shot, if you will, has to be seen to be believed:

“You can blame the players association and you can blame Bud Selig, but the fact remains that the players who were truly clean did not exercise their power to avoid this, nor did their owners care to know as the business went from a $1.3B industry in 1995 to one that topped $6.2B in 2007.”

I agree with the bookends of what he says: the MLBPA, Selig, and the owners all share part of the blame here. But read that middle section again:

“but the fact remains that the players who were truly clean did not exercise their power to avoid this”

Do my senses deceive me, or did Gammons just blame the clean players for baseball’s steroids problem? How can this possibly be allowed to happen? I hope, I really do hope, that ESPN’s ombudsman takes him to task for this in her next column, because this is a completely irresponsible thing to say at the very least. Here he is condemning society’s willingness to rush to judgment when playing the blame game, and he quickly blames the players who haven’t even done anything wrong!

As for the power of the clean players to avoid this, what if Canseco was right (again)? What if more than half of baseball players were on the stuff, and the clean minority was powerless to convince the union that stiffer testing was needed? That couldn’t possibly be true, though. Canseco’s a sewer rat, after all.

Congrats, Pete. I thought you were untouchable. I really thought there was nothing you could say or do that would make me turn on you, but you’ve done it. You’ve become the face of the “see no evil” media in this whole steroid mess. If you want to ignore the problem entirely, just don’t say or write anything, because you’re doing more harm than good right now, both to the public’s perception of the problem, and to the real fan’s perception of you.

Naming Names

2007-12-19T10:23:00.000-05:00

I’ve wanted to post extended thoughts on the Mitchell Report fallout for a few days, and I have enough to say that I thought it would make sense to break it down into a few smaller posts. Let’s start with the debate on whether or not the report should have named names.

In my opinion, they had to refer to players by name – the report has no credibility otherwise. What were the alternatives? Had they just told each player’s story anecdotally, it would have had no weight whatsoever, and nobody would have believed any of it. How many ways are there to say “one player purchased HGH from Radomsky in 2003… another player purchased Winstrol from Radomski in 1999”? Plus, many of these names, like those in the BALCO case, are already public knowledge – it would be silly not to print those names, but how can you do that and not name the others?

Had they referred to each player tangentially, as columnists refer to their sources (for example, instead of using Clemens’ name, they could have said “a prominent starting pitcher from the American League East”), then you’d have people everywhere trying to figure out to whom the report was really referring. In the late 90’s/early 2000’s, that kind of reference could mean any of the following: David Wells, David Cone, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, Tim Wakefield, Mike Mussina, Sidney Ponson, Scott Erickson, Pat Hentgen, or Roy Halladay. What good could it possibly serve to cast doubt on all of them when you’re only referring to one? Clemens isn’t the best example, since he’s the one that had a close personal relationship to McNamee, but you get the point.

Calling out players by name was the only way to give the report credibility. I do agree that it’s unfortunate that they couldn’t get more sources to speak on the record, and as a result certain teams (the Yankees and Mets, especially) have been implicated more than others. But I don’t think for a second that any fan with half a brain who read the report thinks that the steroid problem is limited to a handful of franchises (Mitchell says as much), and I don’t think you can fault Mitchell for using only the information that he was able to get.

There was a lot of talk before the report was released that trainers and team staffs were asked to speculate on who they thought might have done steroids, but I don’t see any names named in the report based on speculation. Everyone named was either through a federal investigation, a direct source of PED’s, or a teammate, and they all had facts to back up their assertions. They didn’t all have tangible proof, which has led to many apologists to scream “hearsay!” (including a choked-up Peter Gammons in defense of Brian Roberts, but we’ll get to him later), but it’s all Mitchell could get due to the union stonewall. Plus, he gave every player named a chance to speak to him about the allegations, but they all declined. Now we’re supposed to feel sorry for them because their names have suddenly and unfairly been thrust into the public eye?

They all could have refuted the claims in the actual report, but they chose not to, probably because they didn’t want a public record of their fraudulent denials. If Andy Pettitte, for example, told Mitchell “I only used HGH on two different days to help me recover from an injury” and then was later proven to be lying, his lie is out there, in print, for everyone to see for the rest of time. I’m not saying that he’s actually lying, but I think that’s the greater problem here: nobody wants to tell the whole truth, so we’re left with Mitchell telling as much of the truth as he can figure out, and that includes the names.

Mitchell Report Stuff

2007-12-19T07:03:00.000-05:00

I'm trying to figure this whole thing out. The steroid thing is pretty cut and dry. Anabolic Steroids (the kind of steroids that athletes use) have been on the federal controlled substance list (meaning they are completely illegal).

HGH does not appear on that list.

You can get HGH legally from a doctor, sort of.

First, it should be mentioned that you can go online and purchase it without a problem. You can purchase it online without a prespricption in pill and spray formats (which many doctors say means it won't work at all either). Some places make you get a doctor's prescription but they are easy to get. Most of their clients are not athletes.

There are only a few completely legal reasons to prescribe HGH for someone, it is estimated that around 75% of the prescriptions written are not for those reasons. This includes clinics that are out there in the open. They are not hiding.

This is where it gets a bit more confusing. In the Mitchell Report it says "The use of HGH is a violation of federal law if not for an authorized purpose, even if with a prescription."

I could not find that anywhere in any law. It is illegal to distribute if not for one of those purposes. Despite it being illegal to distribute, which is not the players' issue, it is being distributed right now for these "illegal uses" out in the open.

5 years ago, well before we were talking about HGH, is it reasonable to say "I went to a clinic that openly advertises HGH for anti-aging, and I took it as it was not a banned substance in baseball or an illegal drug (on the controlled substance list."

In the past few years the laws have been getting a little harder on HGH, and of course it is now a banned substance.

Anybody who was an HGH person prior to 2005 when baseball banned it gets a free-ride in my eyes, including Andy Pettitte.

As far as the report on the whole, it's ridiculously weak, and in my opinion irresponsible. I don't think names should have been named, without a drug test to back up what people said. First it was unfair to the Yankees and Mets. Clearly there were many more people he didn't find out about, it just so happened the two people they were able to get speak were in the Yankee and Met clubhouses. By naming names it makes it seem that the people who were not named are innocent, as opposed to just him not having the source.

The Roger Clemens case Revisited

I think Clemens has a chance to clear is name. Clemens biggest problem in my eyes was he was a "steroids guy", not HGH according to the report. So if it is proven the report is true, you can punish him accordingly.

However, I'm not so sure about proving anything in the report is true, and if he decides to go all out, he can certainly make the case against him look rather weak.

Let's look at the timing. McNamee claims the first time Clemens approached him was in August of 1998. This was not exactly a time that Clemens needed a boost to his career. In 1997, he won the Pitching Triple Crown and his 4th Cy Young award.

In July of 1998 Clemens made 5 starts, going 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA.

Does that sound like a person about to play with performance enhancing drugs for the first time? How do you enhance that?

According to the report there is no knowledge of Clemens using after 1998 until the latter part of the 2000 season. His ERA going into August that year was 3.78 and ended the year at 3.70. Nothing conclusive one way or the other.

Then according to the report they didn't discuss it again until August of 2001. Through July of 2001, Clemens had a won-loss record of 15-1. Does that sound like a person who needs performance enhancers.

The report then says that McNamee never gave Clemens performance enhancing drugs after that. Those years that that includes are his All-Star year in 2003, Cy Young year in 2004, 1.87 ERA year in 2005.

Since he worked so closely with McNamee, it is reasonable to assume that he would not have been getting injections from other people other than him.

There is no proof (to this point) of Clemens buying steroids anywhere. Two of the three times he supposedly started using steroids was when he was perofming at his impressive peak. The timing makes no sense.

The timing of when McNamee talked poorly of Clemens does make sense though. He did so after Clemens fired him. McNamee was in trouble with the Feds. One way to get a reduced sentence is to give a name bigger than yours, he was mad at Clemens and could get a reduced sentence by creatiing this story. (I'm not actually saying he created it or not, but for Clemens' argument, it fits very well).

McNamee is not a sympatheic character as he has a lot of skeletons in his closet. In my opinion Clemens has a very good case against these claims as the timing of when he used makes little to no sense at all. There were other points in his career that he could have used a boost, but not at the points he supposedly used.

Also, according to this, he used it for about 6 months (2 months in 1998, 2 months in 2000, and 2 months in 2001) or a 24 year career. If there is nobody to back up McNamee's claims, Clemens should get out there and point out all of these things. He clearly won't have everybody believe him, but I bet he could turn around enough people to make sure his name is cleared enough for Hall of Fame purposes.

Back to relief help

2007-12-13T20:13:00.001-05:00

Lost in the Mitchell report is that a bunch of guys just became free agents due to teams not offering them arbitration. There are two I would like the Yankees to explore for bullpen help. They'd come fairly cheap so they are low risk, cut them if they don't work out.

First is Mark Prior. There's a decent chance he'd only go to a team that would start him (my first inclination is him going to Washington as he's the type of risk Bowden would take, they need pitching, and it's a pitcher's park), but maybe he can be convinced that being a relief pitcher could keep him healthy, and who better to do a 1-year internship with than Mariano Rivera, to become a high-paid closer.

Sure he might be done, but he's low risk and at age 27 is worth a shot.

Second is Akinori Otsuka. I guess it was the Rangers' plethora of pitching that made them decide to let him go. Maybe the Rangers know more about his medical reports that make him really not worth it. It seems odd to me though as you would think they would have been able to trade him. Sure he had injury problems last season, but he still had a 2.51 ERA in over 30 innings, has a 2.44 career ERA, and has shown himself to be able to close if necessary. What relievers are going for this offseason, and that there is no commitment beyond this year, it was odd that they couldn't get anything back for him. I would definitely take a chance on him.

After skimming the report...

2007-12-13T17:44:00.001-05:00

I skimmed the report and it wasn't as damaging as I thought it would be to Pettitte and even Clemens.

As for Pettitte, it basically has him using for a couple of weeks while he was on the DL in 2001. That's it.

As for Clemens, it also doesn't have him using after 2001. It was after that his dominant Astro years. Also the timing means that neither of them failed a drug test. I can't imagine either would be suspended as the players' union would never hear for it.

Also, as for their trainer who ratted them out, that didn't happen until after a report that Clemens fired him. The Daily News reported that Clemens let him go in June, his first conversation with Mitchell was in July.

I'm not saying the trainer is lying, but in a court of law a case against Clemens would come up very short. They don't have Clemens ever buying anything. They have no positive drug test. The trainer had previously been quoted as saying that he never gave Clemens anything and the story only changed after Clemens fired him.

I'm not saying it's not true, and while it will hold up in the court of public opinion, it would not under reasonable doubt in a court of law.

The Mitchell Report

2007-12-13T10:35:00.001-05:00

I wanted to title this post "LOL!!!!!!!!!" after I read that Clemens is in the report for receiving steroids before and during his time with the Yankees, but I thought that took my irrational hatred for the man too far. I have plenty of questions, though, which I will try to type out in a manner that is readable as I giggle uncontrollably:

- What are the chances that a Santana trade goes down today to try to steal some headlines? 99%?

- Anyone wonder why Tejada was traded yesterday? And why Pettitte officially signed his deal this week?

- Is Clemens a hall-of-famer based on just his years in Boston? I think that's a valid question now, especially since that's the defense everyone uses for Bonds when they talk about his candidacy. Bonds was a hall-of-famer before he likely began juicing. Clemens? Possibly, but I don't think it's a slam dunk.

I realize that I probably think this is more fun than you guys, but wow - today's going to be enjoyable until a Red Sock is named. That's gonna sting.

Why I love Tom Gordon....

2007-12-10T17:03:00.000-05:00

Tom Gordon pitched well with the Yankees, during the regular season. In his two seasons in New York he pitched over 80 innings both seasons to a 2.21 and a 2.57 ERA. However, when the postseason came around his effectiveness disappeared with it, which may have been caused by Torre overusing him, or just mental issues. Either way, the Yankees let him sign elsewhere.

Talk about a good decision. The Yankees had lost their first round pick to the Red Sox for signing Johnny Damon. However, they picked up a higher pick (7 spots higher) as the Phillies pick was obvioulsy better than the Yankees, and a compensatory pick.

Those picks were used on Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. So while Gordon did a decent job with the Yankees, he did a much better job for the Yankees by leaving.

The picks the Red Sox got for Johnny Damon have been struggling. Kris Johnson had a 5.56 ERA in A-Ball, and Daniel Bard walked 78 batters in 75 innings, creating a 7.08 ERA in A-Ball. His ERA dropped to 1.08 in 16 Hawaii League games, but still walked 15 in those 16 innings.

Dellin Betances and David Robertson (who I'm very high on) are the next best potential out of the '06 draft for the Yankees.

Rivera's pitches

2007-12-10T10:34:00.000-05:00

Interesting data about Rivera's pitches - I found it particularly interesting that in a sample of about half of his pitches this season, he only threw a single non-cutter to left handed hitters. Righties saw about two-thirds cutters and one-thirds fastballs, with nearly all of the fastballs being inside off the plate.

So basically, it looks like Rivera only uses the straight fastball as a way to back righties off the plate.

Making Rivera look like a bargain

2007-12-09T16:33:00.000-05:00

$10 million for Eric Gagne. A pitcher with a history of arm injuries, who had a 6.47 ERA after the all-star break gets $10 million.

Clearly the Brewers GM agrees that the NL is much weaker than the AL, that's the only explanation.

Yankee Bullpen

2007-12-06T16:25:00.000-05:00

I'm not a big fan of what's available as far as relievers go. And considering the price and years they are going for, I think the Yankees should figure out their bullpen from within. That being said, I also think the Yankees should go with an 8-man bullpen. If Hughes and Chamberlain start in the Yankee rotation, and Kennedy joins them if Mussina fails, I think the three of them could be very successful, but not eat up enough innings. Young pitchers can get their pitch counts run up quickly, and are on a more strict pitch count, which means a bunch of starts that could be successful, 1 or 2 runs, but the starter is still out after just 5 innings.

That leaves a 3-player bench, which would be Jose Molina, Shelly Duncan, and Wilson Betemit with Hideki Matsui as the primary DH.

Right now, of the 8 relievers, only 3 are pretty much set;
Mariano Rivera
Kyle Farnsworth (I'm not happy about that, but hopefully Girardi, who caught him, can fix him).
Jonathan Albaladejo (not a firm spot)

That leaves 5 spots left. The Yankees have a lot of young and live arms, and we've seen last season how quickly some of them can move up through the system. Many are starters, but I have a feeling you'll see in the ML bullpen shortly. Here are the 20 internal arms for the Yankees to consider, in order that I would like them to consider them for the final 5 spots:

1. Kei Igawa - He's a lefty, and needing fewer pitches could significantly help him. If he has a good start he could also become very tradable to a team in need of a starting pitcher.

2. Darrell Rasner - I've always like Rasner's stuff and makeup a lot. He made 6 starts with the Yankees last season and had a 4.01 ERA. He had a freak injury like many other Yankee pitchers last season.

3. Ross Ohlendorf - Ohlendorf couldn't put it together as a starter in AAA, got hurt, came back as a reliever, and even ended up on the Yankee postseason roster. He threw only 6.1 ML innings, but looked very good striking out 9.

4. Edwar Ramirez - We know minor leaguers can't touch him. Major Leaguers on the other hand... Ramirez had some flashes of absolute brilliance, and some disasters. I'm hoping the Yankees give him a chance to put it together, and I would love him to be Joba Chamberlain's personal reliever, as his Bugs Bunny Changeup would look that much more off after teams see Chamberlain.

5. Scott Patterson - Patterson was recently added to the Yankees 40-man roster. At 28 he's no youngster. The 6'6" righty pitched at AA last season throwing 77 innings while striking out 92, giving up only 15 walks and 45 hits, to a 1.05 ERA.

6. Humberto Sanchez - Sanchez would have easily been in the top 5 (ML Roster) had it not been for the fact that he probably won't be ready until May. He was a top pitching prospect before surgery. Coming back as a reliever could mean a faster recovery as he doesn't need all his pitches. I see him as a possible 8th inning guy come mid-season.

7. David Robertson - I'm really high on Robertson, and I'm hoping to see him this season. He's not yet on the 40-man roster. The 22-year old was taken later in the draft of Kennedy and Chamberlain. The Yankees weren't going to sign the 2nd half of the draft pick until he lit up the Cape Cod League. He started a level lower than Chamberlain and Kennedy and only moved up twice instead of three times. In 85 innings (all relief) he struck out 113 and had a 0.96 ERA. He has yet to pitch a AAA inning.

8. Alan Horne - A lot of people are very high on Alan Horne. He made 27 AA starts last season, striking out 165 in 153 innings. It must have been a dissapointing season for the 25-year old as he went 12-4 and still watched the much younger Kennedy and Chamberlain shoot from A-ball right past him to the Majors.

9. Chris Britton - The soon-to-be 25-year old had a 3.55 ERA in 9 relief appearances for the Yankees last season, and has a career 3.39 ERA in 66 innings. His problem is he doesn't strike people out like some of the other guys, but still a potential solid reliever, just not as much potential upside.

10. Matt DeSalvo - He was the only pitcher to throw 100 innings at Scranton last season, who due to many injuries to both their team and the Yankee team went through 35 pitchers. DeSalvo had a couple of very good starts with the Yankees, then some not so good ones. DeSalvo had a 2.70 ERA in AAA.

11. Kevin Whelan - I really like Wheelan. Great strikeout rate, great ERA, still somewhat new to pitching. Should be making his AAA debut soon.

12. Jeffrey Marquez - Marquez got wrecked the final month of the AA season after a strong first half. The 23-year old went way above his previous high in innings. May be a good fit to move over the the fewer-inning job of relieving.

13. Brian Bruney - Great movement, great strikeouts, sick of his walks.

14. Jose Veras - Great movement. Walks way too many.

15. Sean Henn - Pitched well at AAA after a strong start and horrible finish in the Majors.

16. Chase Wright - Throws hard, could have very good bullpen career. Just keep him out of Fenway.

17. Jeff Karstens - Looked good but not after he recovered from his freak injury. Has higher upside than many above him, not sure how his stuff will translate in relief.

18. Steven White - After strong year in AAA, got shelled in AFL.

19. Eric Wordekemper - 24-year old had a great year in FSL, 0.56 ERA in 48 innings.

20. Roger Clemens - I would love for him to become Rivera's setup man after pitching in the Olympic Games. He'll already be pitching, Petttitte's there. Why not throw a month out of the bullpen to try to get another ring. Just thinking out loud here.

The AL-NL gap may be widening

2007-12-04T19:18:00.000-05:00

I guess it seems Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis are about to go to the Tigers. The Tigers are giving up a lot, but I think it's a great move for them and changes the balance of power in that division.

Also, we have more of the NLs top players ending up in the AL.

The Curse of Ross

2007-12-03T18:14:00.001-05:00

Elijah Dukes traded for a player to be named later.

Insanity

2007-12-03T18:12:00.000-05:00

There are rumors that Hiroki Kuroda is already up to three years, $45 million. $15 million a year, I'm thinking Johnny Damon might be tradable.

I like Hank

2007-12-03T06:39:00.000-05:00

I like Hank Steinbrenner and his blunt take it or leave it way (even if there is a little wiggle room if you come back begging like ARod did). I like that he now gave the Twins a deadline and put the pressure on. With Johan Santana doing it too, it makes it more interesting if he really said he refuses to be traded during the season.

It is very unlikely that with an end of the first round pick and sandwich pick that they would get Hughes/Cabrera quality from them.

The rumors are that the Yankees have said the 3rd prospect will not be Chamberalain, Kennedy, Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, Alan Horne, or Dellin Betances.

A lot of rumors say Alberto Gonzalez, the shortstop the Yankees got in the Randy Johnson deal could be the final peice. If the Red Sox are only including 1 of their "big 3", I think the Yankees have the edge.

The Milledge Trade

2007-11-30T19:14:00.000-05:00

I don't want to say too much about this, because I want to hear what Warren has to say, but there are a few things I have to get out there. I wanted to put up my "Retired Numbers: NL East" post so I could suggest that the Nationals leave a number open for Milledge, but I thought that was kind of cruel. So before I give my own TripleSteal ratings for this deal, let me just say:

- The Mets just downgraded in the outfield for the privilege of downgrading at catcher (.726 career OPS for Estrada vs. .700 for Schneider, although Schneider is five months younger). I actually like Church, but the Mets had to be able to get more for Milledge, right?

- The Mets are now starting a right fielder who thinks all Jews' souls are beyond saving. That should be interesting.

- I'm amazed that Minaya pulled off a trade for two white guys at the expense of a Latino catcher. Literally stunned.

Long story short, I give the Nationals a home run (if Milledge wasn't such a head case, it could be a grand slam), and the Mets a single. At least the Mets filled two positions of need, but compare this return to what the Rays got for Delmon Young... it's night and day.

Warren?

Retired Numbers: AL West

2007-11-29T23:28:00.000-05:00

In our dejection after Cornell got run out of MSG by BU on Saturday night, Ross and I started talking about one of my pet theories. I actually just started thinking about it recently while wondering to myself how a team like the Boston Bruins has retired 10 numbers, despite the relative lack of success the franchise has achieved. In their 80+ year history (including 25 years in a six-team league), they have won five Stanley Cups - not an impressive total. I don't see how a team like that could retire a number every eight years... how could that many players possibly be deserving?

So then it hit me: why not institute a rule where every professional team can only retire one number for each championship they win? It makes perfect sense. I mean, why do teams retire numbers in the first place? Yes, to honor important players in the history of the franchise, but in the case of some teams (the Bruins in particular), they do it for the guaranteed sell-out for a regular season game. They recently retired Terry O'Reilly's number; he played with the team for 13 years and captained them for two, but he only scored 606 points in 891 games, and only played a full 80-game season twice. He was a great fighter and fun to watch, but he does not deserve the same honor that players like Orr, Esposito, and Bourque have received.

Which eventually got me thinking about the Red Sox. They are notorious for their strict standards on retiring numbers, which I have always liked, and like even more now because it supports my argument. To have your number retired by the Sox, you have to be a hall-of-famer, spend ten years of your career with the Red Sox, and, until recently, you had to retire as a Red Sock. They bent the rules on that one for Carlton Fisk, though, and it's no longer a strict criteria.

By my rule, since the Red Sox have now won seven World Series, they should be allowed to retire seven numbers, but we'll get to them later. I wanted to start with an easy division, since I figured I'd need a little time to tell the back story, which of course I did. Anyway, let's start with the AL West. I should note that I'm not counting Jackie Robinson in each team's total - every team should be able to retire his number regardless of how many titles they have, and it shouldn't count against them. Also, Ross and I decided that each player can only have his jersey retired for one franchise, so that may factor in here.

Los Angeles/California/Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels:
World Series wins: 1
Current retired numbers: Jim Fregosi, Gene Autry, Rod Carew, Nolan Ryan, Jimmie Reese

Well, right off the bat, Gene Autrey is out. He was a beloved owner, but for god's sake, he never wore a number... you can't retire one for him. Jimmie Reese was a freaking bat boy for the PCL Angels for 5 years (1919-1923), so he's gone. Carew spent seven years with the Angels after spending twelve years with the Twins: he belongs to Minnesota.

Fregosi spent 11 years with the franchise, winning a gold glove and making a bunch of all-star teams before bouncing around the majors for the last seven years of his career. He was the first "star" of the MLB Angels, and managed them to their first division title and playoff berth in 1979 (where they were knocked off 3-games-to-1 by Baltimore). If they had three or four titles in the bag by now, they could consider retiring his #11, but he is not the single most defining player in Angels history, so he's out until they string a few more together.

That leaves Ryan, who pitched more games for the Angels than any other team (although he spent more seasons with Houston). Here's a dilemma, though: Houston has never won a World Series. Since the Angels have, under my rules, they could have retired Ryan's number in 2003 (assuming the Mets hadn't already tried to claim it for themselves), and the Astros couldn't have done a damn thing about it. I think this kind of gamesmanship would be fascinating to behold in real life, don't you?

But there's another factor at play here: a franchise like the Angels, who has only won one title, has to keep their options open. If they don't win another World Series in the next 20 years or so, what happens when they want to retire Vlad's number? Or perhaps they end up with Miguel Cabrera, or K-Rod spends his entire career there. When you only have one number to play with, you have to be careful.

The verdict: keep the number open for Vlad, but if they win again anytime soon, retire Ryan.

Philadelphia/Kansas City/Oakland Athletics:
World Series wins: 9
Current retired numbers: Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunger, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley

Wow, only four for this franchise? That's amazing. They've also "retired" former owner Walter Haas, but they didn't attach a number to him, thankfully.

I can't argue with any of the four they've already retired; Jackson and Hunter spent more time with the A's than any other team, although they are more associated with the Yankees. Fingers also spent the first half of his career in Oakland, and Eck became a household name with the A's. All four are in the hall of fame.

As for the other five... you'd have to consider Eddie Collins, Home Run Baker, Eddie Plank, and Chief Bender, hall-of-famers all from the Philadelphia days. I don't support retiring managers or coaches, so I don't think you can retire Connie Mack. The only no-brainer from the Oakland era that isn't already retired is Rickey Henderson, who has to belong to the A's after spending parts of 11 seasons with the team. If you retired these five with the current four, that gives you nine, but in the interest of keeping at least one number open, potentially for Mark McGwire, I would leave out Bender.

The verdict: Jackson, Hunter, Fingers, Eckersley, Collins, Baker, Plank, and Henderson, with one vacant slot.

Seattle Mariners:
World Series wins: 0
Current retired numbers: none.

Wow! Amazing restraint by the Mariners here - I like it. They actually have a policy similar to that of the Red Sox, stating that hall-of-famers who played for the team for at least five years, and lifetime Mariners who narrowly missed making the hall of fame, are eligible for induction. That would seem to leave the door open for Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, and Ichiro Suzuki. A-Rod will belong to the Yankees when all is said and done, so he's out. It's debatable whether Johnson belongs to Seattle or Arizona. Griffey will probably belong to the Reds, although that's debatable, too. That leaves a pretty tough call between Martinez and Suzuki as to who should be the first Mariner to be retired.

The verdict: if they win one in the near future, Ichiro will be on that team - he should be the first to go (although he wears the same number that Johnson did... maybe they'll fudge it for both of them, which I'm also against).

Washington Senators/Texas Rangers:
World Series wins: 0
Current retired numbers: Johnny Oates, Nolan Ryan

Oates, tragic as losing him may have been, was a manager, so he's out. Ryan only pitched for the Rangers for five years, and we've already said he belongs to the Angels or Astros. Who does that leave? Ivan Rodriguez? Juan Gonzalez? Those weren't exactly clean break-ups. Raffy Palmiero should probably be first in line, but that whole "Miguel Tejada gave me steroids" affair does two things: guarantees he won't get into the hall of fame, and attaches him to the Orioles for the rest of history.

The verdict: It's a tough call, but I'd give Rodriguez the nod over Gonzalez once a spot opens up.

Any dissenting views?

Yankees in Pursuit of Free Agents

2007-11-29T06:48:00.000-05:00

Clearly the Yankees won't be pursuing any free agent hitters, unless Melky Cabrera is traded, not starting players anyway. I haven't heard them being interested in any of the starting pitchers on the Free Agent market, and everyone is only thinking about Johan Santana here anyway (I can't walk down the hallway at work without somebody asking me about Santana).

The Yankee bullpen will look a lot different next season. I'm hoping the Yankees mainly go with young arms from the system, like Ohlendorf, Humberto Sanchez (may not be ready until May), Darrell Rasner, Jeff Karstens, and the like. However, there is one free agent reliever that interests me, and that's Eddie Guardardo. I haven't heard any rumors about him and the Yankees.

The fact is that he's a lefty, and had his $3.5 million option turned down, so he's inexpensive, especially at age 37 coming off surgery. He pitched 13.2 innings last season after surgery to a 7.24 ERA. However, his last 7 innings he gave up just 2 hits, no runs, and hit 94 on the radar gun.

There's a chance he's done and you throw $3 million away for the season. But his upside is as good as any free agent reliever and if he is back, it's an amazing bargain. I want Everyday Eddie.

Minor Move

2007-11-22T09:01:00.000-05:00

Well, the Bobby Abreu deal looks better. The main piece of that trade was the Yankees 2004 1st round pick CJ Henry. After another miserable year where he batted just .191 (now as an outfielder, not a shortstop like when he was drafted), he asked the Phillies to release him, and they obliged. He then asked the Yankees to sign him and they did so, to a minor league deal.

He's still young as he was drafted out of high school. This was when, year-after-year, the Yankeees were drafting athletes as opposed to baseball players. Henry turned down a full basketball scholorship to sign. Since many first round busts, Henry being the last of them, the Yankees drafting strategy changed with taking more polished players like Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Kennedy is a great example, as he was considered one of the lowest risk players in the draft. Not as much as an upside as some, but most people felt he was just about ML ready, which prooved to be true.

So why did the Yankees take Henry back? Well, obviously the risk was low, and there is a glimmer of hope. The final month of last season he batted .300. The change? He was fitted for contact lenses just before that. Maybe he'll play well enough in the Florida State League for the Yankees to trade him at the deadline again.

Record Chasing

2007-11-16T21:10:00.000-05:00

I would say that the biggest 9 career hitting records (counting ones) would be (in no particular order):

HR
RBI
Runs
Hits
Walks
Doubles
Triples
Total Bases
Stolen Bases

Barry Bonds currently holds two of these records and if he plays next season he could get the runs record as well to make it three.

Other people who have held three of these include:
Babe Ruth: HR, RBI, BB
Rickey Henderson: Walks, Stolen Bases, Runs
Hank Aaron: Home Runs, RBI, Total Bases
Ty Cobb: Hits, Runs, Total Bases

Cobb ld the modern record for stolen bases as well, as Billy Hamilton was the only person with more, and his career finished in 1901. That would be the closest anybody as had to four of the records.

Doubles and triples both go back to the 1920s, but Tris Speaker's doubles record is not what I would call untouchable. 792 is a ton (which is why it's the record), but not impossible.

Pete Rose has a firm grip on hits.

Rodriguez could become the first with four of the records, and should.

I already went over how "easy" the HR record should be for him. He's 794 runs and 794 RBI away from those records. Those two records are just 2 off from each other, as obviously his totals are too. He needs to average 62% of the RBI and 64% of the runs scored that he's had over the past 10 years in the next 10 to get both of those records. Then he should be able to get total bases as well, although for that he'll need to average 74% of what he did over the past 10 years, needing 260 total bases per year. The fact that he needs under 80 runs and rbi per season should make those pretty easy to get in the Yankee lineup.

That would be an extremely impressive accomplishment. However, in a way only tied with Cobb and still behind Ruth if you add in AVG (Cobb), OBP (Ruth), and SLG (Ruth).

763

2007-11-16T19:58:00.000-05:00

If Bonds career is over and ARod gets a 10-year deal, Rodriguez would only have to average 25 home runs per year over the legnth of the contract to break the record, which is only 54% of his output from the previous 10 years (46% of last year's output). In other words, stay healthy and it's a done deal.

Lame

2007-11-08T21:35:00.001-05:00

The Schilling Deal

2007-11-07T23:21:00.000-05:00

It's hard to argue with this one. The Red Sox maintain their pitching depth, which was a key to their 2007 success and 2006 failure, at anywhere from a $0 to $5 million discount. If Schilling loses weight and reports to camp in shape, he'll probably stay healthier throughout the year. If he stays healthy, he'll probably easily make $4-$5 million more in incentives, and the Red Sox will probably get their money's worth. Even if he gives 160 or so innings and a 4.20 ERA... that's a bargain for a one-year commitment. Would you feel more confident that you'll get that out of Schilling or Carlos Silva next year? I rest my case.

Personally, I have to say that I'm thrilled that Schill is coming back. Not only does he seem to have a great relationship with Beckett, but he's emerged as a leader of the team, and he truly loves playing in Boston. Oh, and you know, he won two World Series. You can't really ask for much more - he's the kind of guy that you love to have on your side.

The funny thing is, just before the season started, Ross thought for sure that Schilling would leave when the Sox didn't extend him in spring training, and I thought they would still have a shot at keeping him. At the same time, Ross has always thought that A-Rod would re-sign with the Yankees, while I thought Boras would opt him out and the Yankees would stay firm on their stance not to pursue him. So the next time either one of us tries to say "I'm not biased..." well, you'll know better.

Right now, the Red Sox have six guys (seven, if you count Tavarez, which I don't) for five rotation spots:

Beckett
Matsuzaka
Schilling
Lester
Wakefield
Buchholz

There's been talk of using a six-man rotation, but I don't buy it. I think they start the season with Lester and the four vets in the rotation, and Buchholz in the bullpen. Once one of the starters has to miss a start, then Buchholz can fill in. But I'd rather start him in the 'pen and limit his innings so you could potentially save him for the playoffs.

Tavarez seems to be a square peg at this point, and I imagine they'll explore trading him once we get closer to the start of the season. Once teams go after and miss out on the Josh Foggs, Jason Jenningses, and Brett Tomkos of the world, Tavarez at less than $4 million would seem like a pretty good deal. Just a hunch, but I think it makes sense.

Andy Pettitte pulls a Roger Clemens

2007-11-05T21:35:00.000-05:00

Andy Pettitte has declined his player option. I suppose this isn't a shock, as he's already said he's going to pitch for the Yankees or retire, but I really hope he doesn't drag his heels on this for the next month or so (even though it could hurt the Yankees, or at least confuse them). Just make up your mind and get out of the news, already.

Maybe something happens to these guys in growing up in Texas; I hope this doesn't happen to Beckett when he gets towards the end of his career.

But now... what if he actually retires? Then not only is Wang the ace of the Yankees staff, but he's also the veteran presence (except for Pavano, of course). That's crazy. That have to make a serious run at Santana now, right? This could be a killer.

EDIT: Yes, I forgot about Mussina. But I'm not even convinced that he's still rotation material, at least not for a team that plans on being in playoff contention.

Ladies and Gentlemen, your Seattle Mariners

2007-11-04T11:07:00.000-05:00

Jose Guillen, you've just been bought out of your mutual option for 2008, even though you would have declined the option anyway. Your thoughts?

"They just gave me a half-million for no reason," (Guillen) said from his home in the Dominican Republic, adding he has no hard feelings toward the Mariners. "Maybe I can go buy two new cars with the half-million. You can thank Bill Bavasi for me."

Think we'll see that quote in the media guide?

Off-Season Trade Idea #1

2007-11-03T16:50:00.000-04:00

I assume I'll have more of these as the off-season wears on, but this is a deal I've been thinking about for months. The two Florida teams have been working on some kind of "pitching for a center fielder" deal for a while. Now that the soon-to-be former Devil Rays seem to have their outfield of Crawford, Upton, and Young set for the next ten years, their other outfield parts should be expendable.

So why not trade Rocco Baldelli to the Marlins for Dontrelle Willis?

This just makes sense - both players have been overrated for years, and both should have been traded two years ago while they still had value. It would be the ultimate challenge trade for the two inter-league rivals, and although I don't think either one has the guts to pull it off, I think it benefits both clubs.

Florida needs another bat in the lineup and has been running through the likes of Reggie Abercrombie, Alejandro De Aza, and Alfredo Amezaga in center field over the past few seasons. Baldelli's a huge health question mark, but if he's in the lineup, he gives you pretty good power and speed and his glove won't kill you. He's also got a reasonable price tag, as he's signed for only $2.25 million in '08, with club options from '09 to '11. He's high risk, health-wise, but low-risk money-wise, and high-reward performance-wise. With all of the young pitchers Florida already has, they need to make a move to upgrade their offense.

Tampa Bay obviously has the outfield surplus, and their offense as a whole has the potential to be scary in 2008 with or without Baldelli. At this point, they don't need him, but they can't expect to get much back for him, and Willis is a risky proposition in his own right. However, he can at least give the team innings (he's pitched over 200 in each of the last three seasons), and he does still have a high upside. Personally, I think he'd get killed in the American League, but what other options are out there?

I wouldn't even fault the Devil Rays for getting him just as a placeholder until David Price is ready; he's also charismatic and could put people in the seats when he pitches. Tampa has been working to grow their fan base, making them more of a regional team (see the games in Orlando last year). A recognizable face like Willis, whether he produces or not, could help them in that regard, and build them up a little bit in the public eye before they're really ready to contend in a year or two. They stand to gain a lot on and off the field.

Which is exactly why I think the Marlins wouldn't make this deal. I think they'd want a lot more than just Baldelli for Willis, even though Willis isn't nearly as valuable as they think he is. Could Tampa Bay throw in something like a B-level prospect to make it work? Would they even want to, and would that be enough for the Marlins?

Theo's Good Moves

2007-11-02T14:06:00.000-04:00

According to Ross' "any move you make is a good one if you win the World Series" axiom, with which I agree, the following were fantastic pick-ups by Theo Epstein over the past few years:

Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell - despite Hanley Ramirez's emergence, this was probably already a win.
Coco Crisp - I hated this trade and still don't think Crisp is that good, but all is forgiven.
Eric Gagne - Heh.
Julio Lugo/J.D. Drew - They'll be tested next year in a Keith Foulke sort of way. Hopefully the fans go easier on them.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - I think he'll pan out anyway.
Doug Mirabelli - The hardest to forgive out of all of these.

The other minor guys are Okajima, Cora, Kielty, Hinske, Snyder, and Lopez, but not much was given up to get them, anyway. Good work, Theo!

2-for-4

2007-11-02T14:03:00.000-04:00

Well, that was easy. I feel guilty saying this, because I really do feel spoiled, but there was never really a doubt in my mind that the Red Sox were going all the way once Cleveland beat the Yankees. I even felt a little bad for Cleveland fans after the Sox beat the Indians, but I felt no such remorse for Anaheim and Colorado fans. At least the Angels fill the ballpark during the regular season, but Colorado... welcome the Major League Baseball, fellas! Don't forget, we doing this same thing - playing baseball games - from April through September every year. Feel free to show up.

The series itself went about how I thought it would. The Rockies' pitching finally hit the wall that we'd all been waiting for when opposed by a real offense, and the Red Sox pitching came as advertised. Beckett was money, Schilling showed his age but also some veteranosity to pitch out of some jams, Matsuzaka finished up a just-okay first season about as well as you could have expected, and the bullpen was as lock-down as it had been in the first two rounds. Lester was a great story, of course - so was Aaron Cook - and the Red Sox clearly made the right choice in going with him over Wakefield. I'm anxious to see what he can do with a full off-season of training under his belt. He could still be a valuable pitcher.

I probably would have picked Papelbon or Ellsbury as the MVP, but I have no problems with Lowell. Relievers generally get too much credit in the playoffs, I think, but Papelbon pitched in a few more-than-three-out situations, which I think counts for a little extra. As for Ellsbury... as soon as he scored after his lead-off double in Game Four, I found myself wondering whether I remembered to put the champagne in the fridge before we left for the bar. Good luck in Minnesota, Coco.

This is obviously not as exciting as 2004 - nothing will ever top that - but it's still amazing, and it might only get better. This year's World Series roster featured six home-grown players (I don't count the Japanese pitchers) who all played prominent roles, and it's not a stretch to think they could all be as good or even better next year, and the system still has more fruit to bear. I fully expect this team to make the playoffs for the next five years, which is something I never would have thought even three years ago.

I'll wrap this up because I'm sure you both don't really care, but I just want to say that the A-Rod thing didn't really bother me. Obviously, Boras should have known better, but I was just thrilled that he was off the Yankees. I hope the Red Sox don't sign him, though - he should go to the NL where he won't get booed regularly in four cities.

Red Sox wooing Schilling

2007-11-02T12:26:00.000-04:00

Here's the letter the Red Sox sent Curt Schilling in the offseason after their famous Thanksgiving dinner. I thought this was an interesting insight into how teams try to woo potential free agents.

2007 Predictions - Looking Back, Part I

2007-11-02T11:39:00.000-04:00

Let's take a look back at some of our preseason predictions - I'll start with the random questions I threw out there...

Will Barry Bonds break Hank Aaron's record this season?
Warren: Yes
Sully: Yes
Ross: Yes
Answer: Yes

The NL's winning percentage in interleague play will be:
Warren: .480
Sully: .476
Ross: .440
Answer: .456

How many of the Chris Youngs will have disappointing seasons?
Warren: 0
Sully: 0
Ross: 1
Answer: This is a judgment call, of course, but I'd say 0. Chris Young (ARI) only hit .237 (with an OBP of .295), but he did 32 homers. The tall Chris Young had a fantastic season.

Ken Griffey, Jr. will play in how many games?
Warren: 98
Sully: 87
Ross: 101
Answer: 144

Will a star player get caught using PEDs this season?
Warren: No
Sully: (Caught meaning fail an MLB drug test? In that case, no. But more big names will come out)
Ross: only minor players
Answer: No

Baseball America's 2008 top prospect will be:
Warren: Evan Longoria
Sully: No freaking idea
Ross: Cameron Maybin
Answer: Too early to say for sure. My guess is that it will be Jay Bruce.

The first manager to be fired will be:
Warren: John Gibbons
Sully: Mike Hargrove
Ross: Mike Hargrove
Answer: Sam Perlozzo. Hargrove resigned only a couple of weeks after that, though.

The Mets player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Lastings Milledge
Sully: Mike Pelfrey
Ross: Shawn Green (It's my Jew vote. I wonder if he's going to a passover seder tonight)
Answer: Probably one of John Maine, Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernandez - all ended up with ERAs under 4. Personally, I was most surprised by El Duque. Green did exceed my expectations, though.

The Mets player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Jose Reyes
Sully: Moises Alou
Ross: Mike Pelfrey
Answer: I'll go with Carlos Delgado. Reyes was disappointing in that he had a huge April, but was good-not-great the rest of the way. Pelfrey was a bit of a disappointment as well.

The Yankees player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Alex Rodriguez
Sully: Alex Rodriguez
Ross: Alex Rodriguez, Carl Pavano (all Pavano has to do to exceed expectations is to stay healthy trough April)
Answer: Honestly, it's probably Posada or Joba, but A-Rod's not a bad answer. I don't think he exceeded our expectations by a huge amount.

The Yankees player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Chien-Ming Wang
Sully: Robinson Cano
Ross: Kei Igawa
Answer: Igawa was certainly terrible, but a lot of people did suspect he wouldn't be any good. Damon and Mussina were both pretty disappointing.

The Red Sox player most likely to exceed expectations is:
Warren: Wily Mo Pena
Sully: Josh Beckett
Ross: Jon Lester
Answer: Either Beckett or Pedroia, in my opinion.

The Red Sox player most likely to disappoint is:
Warren: Jon Papelbon
Sully: Coco Crisp
Ross: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Answer: Well, both of you guys had good picks...but there are many to choose from. Drew and Lugo would probably be considered bigger disappointments than Dice-K, though.

Will be knocked down a peg:
Warren: Ryan Howard
Sully: Justin Verlander
Ross: Delmon Young
Answer: Young was the best guess of these three by far.

2006 playoff team least likely to make the playoffs in 2007:
Warren: Dodgers
Sully: Dodgers
Ross: Cardinals
Answer: 3 for 3.

Will Joel Zumaya permanently take over as Tigers closer in 2007?
Warren: Yes
Sully: No
Ross: Yes
Answer: He got injured, but probably wouldn't have taken over even if healthy. And now he got hurt again.

The biggest midseason trade acquisition will be:
Warren: Andruw Jones, by the Red Sox (for Jacoby Ellsbury* and Wily Mo Pena)
Sully: Ichiro Suzuki, by the Dodgers (for Chad Billingsley and Andre Ethier)
Ross: Jeff Kent to the Red Sox (for Dustin Pedroia and Daniel Bard**)
Answer: Mark Teixiera by the Braves. None of these players went anywhere.

First announced rotation member to lose their spot due to ineffectiveness:
Warren: Sidney Ponson (to Matt Garza)
Sully: Sidney Ponson (to anyone)
Ross: Josh Towers
Answer: Towers lost his starting job after only 4 starts, although he got his job back and eventually made another 11 starts. Ponson lasted 7 starts for some reason.

The pitcher with the highest ERA in at least 100 IP will be:
Warren: Brandon Duckworth
Sully: Horacio Ramirez
Ross: Odalis Perez
Answer: Sully was so close - Ramirez had an ERA of 7.16 in 98 innings. The real answer was Adam Eaton - 6.29 in 161.2 innings. (Nice use of eight million bucks.) Duckworth only made 3 starts and was decent out of the bullpen (4.53 ERA in 45.2 innings). Perez was bad (5.57 ERA in 137.1 innings).

The pitcher with the lowest ERA in at least 40 IP will be:
Warren: Mike Gonzalez
Sully: Jonathan Broxton
Ross: Mariano Rivera
Warren: J.J. Putz (1.39). Gonzalez had a 1.59 ERA in 17 innings before having Tommy John surgery, Broxton had a 2.85 ERA in 82 innings, and Rivera ran out of time to get his ERA back under 3, ending up with a 3.15 ERA in 71.1 innings.

The number of days we'll go without hearing from Ross after the Yankees are eliminated from the playoffs:
Warren: 24
Sully: 16
Ross: Not Applicable as they will win the World Series
Answer: 23. Welcome back, Ross.

My Thoughts

2007-10-31T11:35:00.000-04:00

1) How did the Cardinals ever win the World Series?

2) Joe Girardi was my first choice. Followed by Tony Pena, Larry Bowa, and Buck Showalter. Don Mattingly was not. I am one of the believers that you follow a calm players' manager with a fiery one and vice-versa. Don Mattingly will probably be just like Joe Torre, but with less experience.

3) They handled the Joe Torre thing the exact way I expected them too. People say the got bad publicity by handling it "wrong", but they don't realize they would have gotten much worse publicity if they had just fired him. The fact was they didn't want him back and they came up with the best offer that they knew he'd still turn down. It would have been much worse to fire one of if not the most popular manager in the team's history. Letting him make the decision to walk away (even if it was mostly forced) was the way to go.

4) I'm definitely hoping jinxes are real with the departure of Don Mattingly. In the last 27 years Don Mattingly was in the Yankee orginzation for 18 of those seasons. Those 18 seasons the Yankees did not go to a World Series, even once. In the other 9 seasons the Yankees went to the World Series 7 times. 7 of the last 9 and 10 of the last 14 seasons without Don Mattingly the Yankees went to the World Series.

Since 1921, the Yankees have been in the World Series 57% of the time when Don Mattingly wasn't on the team as a player or coach. That's amazing.

5) ARod. I thought he was coming back. I assumed that when the Yankees talked to him they would convince him (with a huge deal to help) to stay. The Yankees were right, he would have. Boras knew it too. That's why Boras never let the Yankees talk with him.

6) I didn't mind watching Clemens in amazement after he left the Yankees. I never felt slighted with it. That won't be true with ARod.

7) How bad will ARod look if the Yankees do win the World Series next year? People may notice the Mattingly connection, but the talk will be ARod.

8) After the shock of the opt out was over, all I kept thinking was, that's a great salary slot for Johan Santana. I'm not expecting it this season (although I'm sure Cashman will call), but it's very rare that the best pitcher on the planet is a southpaw, and I can't imagine Santana's agent would let him sign anywhere (if there is a deadline deal somewhere else) without checking in on the Yankees' offer price.

9) You know Boras already has a deal in his pocket with another team that's $30 million a year, the questions are which team (probably the Angels) and can the Yankees proove it for tampering (probably not).

10) I would be shocked (and very upset) if Posada, Pettitte, or Rivera went anywhere. I wouldn't think the change to Girardi would not negatively impact their decision as Pettitte and Rivera finished 2-3 for the Cy Young the first year they pitched to him (their sophomore season) and Girardi mentored Posada.

11) Mattingly had to leave after Girardi got the job, as Girardi is younger than him. If Lou Piniella got the job, Mattingly could stay, and Mattingly could follow Torre to LA (especially with his son in their organization), and Torre's age means Mattingly would be his natural successor.

12) The Jitter Critters helped me a lot this year, as it allowed me to not pay attention too much to anything going on. And the kids loved the show on Saturday.

Congratulations...

2007-10-29T00:37:00.000-04:00

... to the Rockies. That was one hell of a run, and the NL West is going to be great division in the next few years.

... to the Rangers. You just saved yourselves a chunk of cash. You have the second happiest fans in baseball.

... to the Red Sox. The best team in baseball won.

... to Sully. I hope you don't have anything important to do at work early tomorrow morning.

Less than four months until pitchers and catchers report. I can't wait.

Game Seven

2007-10-21T09:29:00.000-04:00

I love Game Sevens. In any sport, they're fantastic, but there really is nothing better in sports than a Game Seven in baseball. I love the phrase "win or go home." I love the phrase "all hands on deck" even more. That's easily my favorite baseball saying, just ahead of "double-barreled action in the bullpen." And I love the anticipation - I have a paper to write today, and I'm blowing off the game of a historically good Patriots team to write it so I have all afternoon and evening free for Game Seven.

And how do I even count the ways that I love this Game Seven? I can't wait to see Jacoby Ellsbury get another start. I'm hoping I don't have to see him, but I want to know how John Lester can pitch on the grand stage when the Red Sox need him most. I want to see if something happens that I never thought possible: J.D. Drew getting a standing ovation, at Fenway Park, no less. I hope to see C.C. Sabathia being used as a situational lefty, although Eric Wedge will probably leave him in too long. I don't even know how this hilarious Paul Byrd business will affect the game, but there's a 100% chance that I will complain about it repeatedly if the Indians win tonight (will Ross join me?).

I hopeful, of course, because you have to be. I'm hopeful that Matsuzaka won't put too much pressure on himself, and will attack the strike zone and keep his pitch count manageable. I'm hopeful that the Red Sox can finally solve the Jake Westbrook knock-knock joke (he's not really a riddle, is he? He's Jake Westbrook!). I'm hopeful that Eric Wedge will continue to blow this series, after pushing Sabathia too hard in Game Five and using up most of his good relievers in Game Six (I finally know what it was like for Yankee fans playing against a Grady Little-managed team - it feels sweeeeeeeet). I'm hopeful that Troy O'Leary throws out the first pitch. I'm hopeful that the last few innings are rendered meaningless by a huge Red Sox lead, but if they're not, I hope for one or two things, or both: the prominent involvement of David Ortiz and the prominent involvement of Joe Borowski.

Mostly, I hope that the Red Sox finish off their 1986-esque ALCS comeback, and if it happens, I hope that I can get World Series tickets. Fenway is impossible, but the Rockies don't start selling until tomorrow morning, and I've got three other guys committed to a weekend trip to Denver.

I'm giddy. I'm nervous. I'm ready for Game Seven.

Down 3-1

2007-10-16T23:48:00.000-04:00

Well, I'm not quite sure what to say at this point. Schilling, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield haven't given the Red Sox enough innings, the 6-1 hitters have been dreadful, and anytime you let the opponent score seven runs in an inning twice in three games, well, you're in trouble. Tonight, there were a few bad breaks to start the seven-run fifth which could have changed everything, but Wake and Delcarmen couldn't pitch around them. Sometimes you just get the feeling that it's not your year, or your series, or whatever, and it's hard for me to shake that feeling now.

Still, not to sound too much like Kevin Millar here, but they've got Beckett going Thursday (this off-day is going to be BRUTAL), and if he can get them back to Fenway, then anything can happen. But a lot of things need to go right for them to pick up the win in Game Five, not just getting a quality start. Pedroia, Varitek, and Lugo have to take some pitches and actually reach base every once in a while. Kielty (starting against Sabathia, although he should have started against Byrd), needs to prove he's worth the roster spot. And Crisp not only needs to prove that he's worth starting over Ellsbury for the rest of this series, but next year, too. It's quite literally a make-or-break game for three or four Red Sox hitters.

They hit Sabathia in Game One (and so did the Yankees in the ALDS), so if they're ever going to get the offense going again, this is the time. But they've had trouble with Byrd, Westbrook, and Borowksi already in this series, so my expectations are tempered. Honestly, at this point I'm just hoping that their season doesn't end - I'm not ready for anywhere from four to seven games of Rockies-Indians, followed by winter.

One more thing I need to get off my chest about these playoffs: I really wish Manny Ramirez would at least jog after he belts a no-doubter home run. It's one thing after you hit a walk-off to give your team a commanding 2-0 series lead; it's quite another when you're trailing two games to one and you hit a solo shot to cut the deficit to four runs in the sixth inning. Plenty of neutral fans have plenty of (good) reasons to hate the Red Sox already - they don't need another.

Joe Loves Gagne

2007-10-15T16:19:00.000-04:00

Joe Posnanski on Eric Gagne:

I will also say this — all game long (because of my Cleveland paranoia) I was sure the Indians would lose Saturday. Absolutely sure. It was that feeling in the pit of your stomach, and it was there for all 73 hours (time actually stands still when Rafael Betancourt pitches, so it was even longer than 73 hours) … UNTIL … Eric Gagne came in from the bullpen.

A few years ago, I went to the Olympics in Greece when my oldest daughter, Elizabeth, was only two years old. I was away from her for three weeks, and it was awful. For three weeks, I thought about how much she was changing, how much I was missing, how bad a father I was, how desperately I missed her. And then, finally, the Olympics ended, and I took the long plane ride, and then another, and finally I arrived at the airport, and I walked on the concourse, and there she was, my Elizabeth, and she ran into my arms and shouted “Daddy” and it was just about the best feeling I’ve ever felt.

Yeah, that’s just about how happy I was to see Eric Gagne.

There's also a good story about Jeremy Affeldt in that blog post, but this quote took the cake.

The ALCS

2007-10-11T23:49:00.000-04:00

I'm trying to think rationally about this, but I just can't. Beckett vs. Sabathia is a push. Schilling vs. Carmona is a slight advantage to Cleveland. Matsuzaka vs. Westbrook could go either way, but is probably a push. Wakefield vs. Byrd could go either way, depending on Wakfield's health, so I'd call that a push, too. Cleveland has the better set-up guys, but Boston has the better closer.

Cleveland's offense might be deeper than Boston's, but the Red Sox have the better 3-4-5 heart of the order. I think Boston's defense is better, but I don't know a whole lot about Cleveland's D or platoon situations.

Just because I'm usually wrong and because I'm still surprisingly superstitious, I'm picking Cleveland in seven, if only because I'm not sure I trust Matsuzaka in a Game Seven at home. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if either team swept, but I think they're even enough where it should go six or seven games.

The NLCS

2007-10-11T22:31:00.001-04:00

I'm watching Game One on TiVo right now (4-1 Rockies in the bottom of the 4th), and despite the fact that it's kinda late, I want to get my prediction on the record. I'm not going to go too in-depth, but I think the offense and starting rotations of each team are pretty much even. Colorado has the better defense, and Arizona has the better bullpen. It's close, but I think the Diamondbacks will take the series in seven.

The reason? Honestly, I can't get over the fact that the Rockies activated Willy Taveras and immediately installed him as the lead-off hitter, moving Tulowitzki down to seventh. Tulowitzki is one of their best hitters! Why are they moving him down??? Would it kill them to hit Taveras 8th or Matsui 7th? I just don't get that - it's crazy. Of course, it was crazy of Eric Wedge to use Paul Byrd and Joe Borowski in Yankee Stadium, and that worked out, but that was one game - this is, presumably, all seven. I don't get it.

Two more Rockies observations: 1) I just can't bring myself to root or a team run by Dan O'Dowd, who should have been fired five years ago after the Hampton and Neagle contracts, and 2) I'm thrilled that they've decided to bury Chris Iannetta behind Yorvit Torrealba, if only because the Red Sox are desperate for a young catcher, and they can probably get Iannetta cheap in the off-season. He's had a rough season, after a slow start led to inconsistent playing time, but his PECOTA projection for this year was .290/.377/.476 in 496 at-bats. Not only is that line head and shoulders (and chest and waist) above what Mirabelli and Cash have done this year, it's better than what Varitek put up. If the Sox could get him for a Brandon Moss or Craig Hansen type (I don't know if they could, but he certainly seems unwanted), he could split time with Varitek on a 60/40 basis in 2008, then take over in 2009 after Varitek's contract runs out. Honestly, this might even be worth rooting for Colorado to go all the way.

So, Game One isn't over yet (at least, on my TiVo it isn't), and I'm already regretting this pick, just because I feel I've severely underrated Jeff Francis. Well, I've got to stick to my pick - I thought Arizona could beat Philly, I have to think they can still beat Colorado.

Josh Byrnes

2007-10-10T22:49:00.000-04:00

Josh Byrnes, as most people know, was hired as the GM of the Diamondbacks in October of 2005. Before that, he was an assistant GM with the Red Sox for four years. From 1999-2001, he was the assistant GM of the Indians. And from the day he was hired as an intern in 1994 until then, he held various positions with the Colorado Rockies.

Why does this matter? Because Josh Byrnes has had a hand in building all four of the surviving playoff teams. I think this is pretty impressive, especially since all of them are fairly young teams with farm systems that have borne fruit over the last few years. Granted, he's had more influence on some teams than others, but it's still quite a résumé.

Better to be a Mets fan than a Royals fan

2007-10-08T13:36:00.001-04:00

Short Rest

2007-10-07T21:56:00.000-04:00

I think both Wang and Sabathia should be brought in on short rest tomorrow.

Wang is a pitcher that needs the downward motion, and having an arm a bit tired can help do that. Plus, his ERA is 2 runs less at Yankee Stadium than on the road.

That puts Pettitte in line on regular rest for game 5.

As far as the Indians, it's a bit risky because of the number of pitches Sabathia pitched in game 1, but quite frankly, Sabathia on short rest still has a better chance than Paul Byrd.

So does Sabatia on long rest have a better chance than Carmona on regular rest? Probably, but probably not enough to not take your chance to not have both Sabathia and Carmona get another start.

1-for-1

2007-10-07T00:28:00.000-04:00

Diamondbacks win, and my record for playoff predictions this year is already better than last year. Woo hoo! The way it stands right now, I'll likely go 2-for-4 in the first round, and I'm fine with that. Baby steps.

By the way, I was at Fenway last night to see my fourth playoff walk-off. Here's how I rank them:

A distant # 4: Aaron Boone vs. Red Sox. On the one hand, this one still hurts. On the other hand, it made 2004 so much sweeter. Being there in person for this is the very definition of bittersweet. Forget about the fact that I'm a Red Sox fan... if I were even a neutral observer, this would rank as the best game I've ever seen. But I wasn't.

#3: Manny Ramirez vs. Angels. It was a tense game, but it wasn't a series clincher, an elimination game (for the home team), or even extra innings, so that costs it a little bit. However, that one swing by Manny gave me a much-needed reminder that he is still a force to be reckoned with. I'm roughly 15% more confident in the Red Sox' abilities to make a run now after last night's ninth inning.

#2: David Ortiz vs. Angels. A series-ending walk-off, after the Red Sox had already blown a 4-run lead on an opposite field Vlad Guerrero grand slam. The fact that the Sox were already up 2-0 in the series when it happened hurts it, but the fact that it clinched the series, and that the Sox were still chasing their elusive holy grail at the time, are huge... almost huge enough to finish it ahead of:

#1: David Ortiz vs. Yankees. This was the Game Five single in the 14th inning, not the Game Four home run in the 12th - the fact that I need to differentiate that still amazes me to this day. Here's what I remember vividly from this game: Ortiz cut a 4-2 deficit in half with a solo homer in the 8th inning, the Sox tied it up off of Rivera for the second time in 19 hours later that inning, my tickets were originally for Game Three, but a rainout postponed it, and the Astros-Cardinals game that night started three hours later than this game did... and it finished before this game. That was a crazy night.

As if I needed to make this clear, I am exceedingly lucky to have seen all of these games in a four year-span. In this century, the Red Sox have been involved in seven walk-off playoff games (one of them in Oakland), and I've been to four of them. This is a great time to live a mile away from Fenway Park.

Irony

2007-10-05T20:01:00.001-04:00

The first inning the Indians don't get a hit in (the 8th), is the first inning they score a run. If you're not watching, it's insane for Chamberlain right now. As he walked Sizemore, wild pitch, sac bunt, line out, wild pitch (run), hit batter, walk, he actually has bugs crawling all over his face and neck as he's pitching. They've sprayed him down with bug spray twice, nothing working. Strikeout, he's finally out of it.

How the Yankees will fare against Sabathia

2007-10-04T16:06:00.000-04:00

It's been more than three years since the Yankees last faced Sabathia. In his eight career appearances against the Yankees he's 1-To try to figure out how the Yankees will do against Sabathia, I took a look at his matchups this season, and saw he pitched 3 games against teams with more than 600 walks this season, pitching twice against Oakland and once against the Phillies. Sabathia had a 4.98 ERA in those 3 games.

It's a very small sample size, but I don't have much better to go off of.