tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27163465.post114886795352677041..comments2008-08-12T22:02:41.410-04:00Comments on Triple Steal: 3,500 HitsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27163465.post-1148913554539555662006-05-29T10:39:00.000-04:002006-05-29T10:39:00.000-04:00Jeter had 1936 hits after his age 31 season. If we...Jeter had 1936 hits after his age 31 season. If we take all players within 100 hits of Jeter at the same age, we have 20 players (excluding Jeter, A-Rod and Griffey): Roberto Alomar, George Davis, Curt Flood, Frankie Frisch, Lou Gehrig, Al Kaline, Willie Mays, Joe Medwick, Eddie Murray, Vada Pinson, Frank Robinson, Pete Rose, Ron Santo, Al Simmons, Tris Speaker, Rusty Staub, Arky Vaughan, Lloyd Waner, Paul Waner and Robin Yount. Only two of the twenty (Rose and Speaker) made it. If you throw in the three guys who weren't in this group but got 3500 hits anyway, then it's 5 of 23.<BR/><BR/>If you only include guys who averaged at least 180 hits per season for their age 29-31 seasons, then you're left with only six players - Frisch, Gehrig, Mays, Rose, Simmons and Paul Waner. One out of those six made it. Simmons, for example, was 60 hits ahead of Jeter at the same age, and had been averaging 205 hits per season over the past three years, and he didn't even make it to 3000.<BR/><BR/>A-Rod had 11 players within 100 hits of him at age 30: Alomar, Ashburn, Crawford, Foxx, Kaline, Keeler, Medwick, Pinson, Speaker, Vaughan and Yount. A-Rod has averaged 182 hits over the past three seasons - if we only include guys who averaged at least 170 hits, then we're left with Ashburn, Crawford, Foxx, Keeler, Medwick and Speaker. Like Jeter, one in six made it. Although, of this group, only Keeler had more hits at age 30 than A-Rod. Although as another cautionary tale, Ashburn was about 50 hits behind A-Rod at the same age and was also averaging about 180 hits per year. He barely made it 2500 hits.<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure this is a big surprise - it's an uphill battle for both of them, but it's certainly possible that they'll make it. If I had to wager, I'd bet neither of them make it, but they'll both clear 3000 hits easily.Warrenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09549212529481086642noreply@blogger.com